Halladay VI: Smug-Off For the Ages Sponsored by lightsout54

by **lowcountry** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 09:47:38

Does Baseball America (or somebody else) do a mid-season ranking of teams' prospects? Because all I'm finding is the Phils' BA Top 10 from January.

Using those rankings, I'm not sure I'd give more than Happ, Carrasco, Taylor and Donald.

/realizes those rankings have probably changed wildly

by **Eem** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 09:48:35

Squire wrote:Its interesting. The current Phillies management (gillick has made trades with

SF - Taschner
Seattle - Moyer
Texas - Mayberry
Cincinnati - somebody I can't remember
Pittsburgh - Paulino
White Sox - Thome, Garcia, etc.
Oakland - Blanton
Houston - Lidge

For JP - I can only recall a handful of trades with Oakland and the Overbay deal with Milwaukee

SQUIRE

by **traderdave** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 09:48:46

Trent Steele wrote:
Warszawa wrote:Lauber

So, in today’s News Journal, you read about how the Phillies were preparing a counter-offer for Roy Halladay that involved four pieces:

1. Kyle Drabek or J.A. Happ.
2. Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor.
3. Carlos Carrasco.
4. Another prospect double-A or triple-A.

Well, turns out, the Phillies have made that counter-offer. According to an ESPN.com report this morning, they dangled Happ, Taylor, Carrasco and Jason Donald, and it was swiftly rejected by the Jays, who are insisting on getting both Drabek and Happ, plus Brown, and reportedly told the Phillies that they’re perfectly willing to hold on to Halladay if they aren’t presented with a deal they like by Friday’s trade deadline.

Sorry, but we don’t believe that.

Once again, these are negotiations, and in negotiations, it’s never advantageous to reveal all your cards. But, and we’ve discussed this before in this space, the cost-cutting Jays know they must deal Halladay. And they also know that Halladay’s value to them will never be higher than it is right now. If they trade Halladay now, he will be going to a team that gets him for two playoff runs. If they trade Halladay in the offseason, or next July, he will be going to a team that gets him for only one playoff run. Needless to say, the Jays are in position to get more for him now than they will be in six or 12 months.

Just ask the Minnesota Twins. Two years ago, the Twins decided not to trade Johan Santana at the deadline. They waited until the offseason, and all they were able to get from the Mets was light-hitting center fielder Carlos Gomez and three middling pitching prospects. If they’d traded him during the ‘07 season, it’s possible they’d have gotten a lot more. (In our weekly MLB Notes in the News Journal, we took a look at three recent blockbuster trades for ace pitchers, including the Santana deal, and the varying degrees of success for the teams that acquired the ace.)

Halladay already has told the Jays that he’s not likely to re-sign after next season when he becomes a free agent. The Jays probably won’t win the World Series next season, even if they keep Halladay. So, there’s absolutely no reason for them to not trade him before Friday. For now, though, they want the Phillies (and other teams) to think that they won’t in order to ratchet up the price. The Phillies don’t seem to be buying it, and they shouldn’t. It’s bunk.

So, what happens this week, as the calendar lurches toward Friday?

The Phillies are continuing to talk to the Jays, while also monitoring their other options. They have a scout in Seattle today to watch the Indians’ Cliff Lee, their No. 2 choice and a pretty decent consolation prize, although there hasn’t been any indication that Cleveland is seriously motivated to move Lee. They’ll also scout Jarrod Washburn’s next start for the Mariners. And while it certainly benefits the Phillies to make the Jays think they have other options, Halladay is still their clear-cut preference and they remain his most aggressive suitor.

So, as the deadline nears, one of two things is going to happen: Either the Jays lower their initial demand for Halladay (Drabek, Happ, Brown), or the Phillies swallow hard and give in to that demand.

Which side will blink first?

Tick, tock. Tick,tock

The way this article is set up is entirely misleading. It's not like they gave TOR the choice between Drabek/Happ and Taylor/Brown. They offered them the lower-ranked of each.

100% agreed. The obvious answer for both sides (assuming they want to get a deal finished) is to start with Donald and Carrasco and then add either Drabek/Taylor or Happ/Brown.

Despite his success, I am still not 100% sold on Happ so I would prefer the second option but, once again, I don't know the minors as well as some here. Just from what I've read here it seems like the distance between Taylor and Brown is less than between Drabek and Happ.

by **The Red Tornado** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 09:51:05

When you're a Jay,
You're a Jay all the way
Hope you like fourth place finishes
Cause, we ain't trading you away!

by **Squire** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 09:51:42

That's true - we fleeced him on Matt "Deep Into the Night" Stairs and now JP is determined for some payback. Damn Stairs.

SQUIRE

by **BigEd76** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 09:56:02

Squire wrote:Its interesting. The current Phillies management (gillick has made trades with

SF - Taschner
Seattle - Moyer
Texas - Mayberry
Cincinnati - somebody I can't remember
Pittsburgh - Paulino
White Sox - Thome, Garcia, Iguchi, etc.
Oakland - Blanton
Houston - Lidge

SQUIRE

The Cincy ones were getting rid of Franklin and trading for Lohse. There was also a trade with Baltimore for Conine, a Florida one to get rid of Helms, a Toronto one for Stairs, and a Cubs one for Eyre....

by **thephan** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 09:56:15

Hours after Philadelphia's rejection Sunday, Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi told FoxSports.com he doesn't see Halladay getting traded.

"We've said that we would listen, but that we would have to be motivated and 'wowed,'" Ricciardi told the Web site. "Right now we haven't been. I've said all along my gut tells me I won't be. I still stand by that."

From TSN. I guess the news it that article is that JP is digging in to play hardball. It is hard to take the what the Jays ask for seriously, and to think that JP shrugged off a rather good offer is laughable. Soon enough the Jays will get a worse offer and their hands tied.

by **lowcountry** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:00:47

Here's your "Wow," J.P.

Next year's offer is Happ and three guys you've never heard of.

by **The Red Tornado** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:02:43

Squire wrote:
The Red Tornado wrote:
Squire wrote:
ek wrote:Stark is on Mike and Mike saying how the Jays sent proposals to 5 teams , which were all denied. And he said that negotiations with the Phillies got testy over the weekend and that negotiations are at a standstill. He seems to think that if anything happens with Halladay that the Jays are going to have to get off their set price for him.

Perfect.

SQUIRE

maybe, but if a trade doesnt get done I wont be happy

....with a 6.5 game lead (8 in the loss column)? Not me. After years of underselling, I'm not going to overpay.

yes we'll win the division but I dont think we do very well in the playoffs with the current rotation unless Pedro, Cole and Jamie are back to their old selves.

by **The Red Tornado** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:04:19

phorever wrote:
The Red Tornado wrote:
Squire wrote:
ek wrote:Stark is on Mike and Mike saying how the Jays sent proposals to 5 teams , which were all denied. And he said that negotiations with the Phillies got testy over the weekend and that negotiations are at a standstill. He seems to think that if anything happens with Halladay that the Jays are going to have to get off their set price for him.

Perfect.

SQUIRE

maybe, but if a trade doesnt get done I wont be happy

will you be unhappy with the phils or just unhappy?
will you be unhappy without a trade for halladay or is lee acceptable?
if the jays won't be reasonable, i don't want the phils doing something unreasonable.
i'll settle for lee for a reasonable price.
i'll settle for hamels-blanton-happ-pedro-whatever if the trade prices are unreasonable.

I'm just hoping that they can find middle ground because I can live with something in between the Drabek, Happ and Brown request and the Happ, Carrasco, Donald, and Taylor offer.

by **Squire** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:07:50

ek wrote:I absolutely agree. we aren't going to go much past maybe the NLDS without a rotation upgrade or a severe bench and bullpen upgrade instead

Playoff outcomes are pretty random in my opinion. At this point last season nobody foresaw how good our rotation would be in the playoffs and Milwaukee's 1-2-3 of Sabathia-Sheets-Gallardo looked pretty good.

SQUIRE

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:11:35

thephan wrote:
Hours after Philadelphia's rejection Sunday, Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi told FoxSports.com he doesn't see Halladay getting traded.

"We've said that we would listen, but that we would have to be motivated and 'wowed,'" Ricciardi told the Web site. "Right now we haven't been. I've said all along my gut tells me I won't be. I still stand by that."

From TSN. I guess the news it that article is that JP is digging in to play hardball. It is hard to take the what the Jays ask for seriously, and to think that JP shrugged off a rather good offer is laughable. Soon enough the Jays will get a worse offer and their hands tied.

There's really only two scenarios where JP gets killed in the media:

1.) Not trading Halladay
2.) Trading Halladay to the Yankees or Red Sox (unless he gets Bucholtz)

He's going to be traded and I'm confident you could get him now simply by including both Drabek and Happ in the deal. If the Phillies stand firm, they might be able to get him without including Drabek or Brown, but I'd say the chances are very low. The problem with that low-ball approach is that allows more teams into the mix and makes it easier for the Angels or Dodgers to make an offer they are comfortable with that doesn't include their key ML players. Bascially, the Happ/Carrasco/Taylor/Donald can - and will - be matched by someone else.

by **Grotewold** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:12:00

Squire wrote:
ek wrote:I absolutely agree. we aren't going to go much past maybe the NLDS without a rotation upgrade or a severe bench and bullpen upgrade instead

Playoff outcomes are pretty random in my opinion. At this point last season nobody foresaw how good our rotation would be in the playoffs and Milwaukee's 1-2-3 of Sabathia-Sheets-Gallardo looked pretty good.

SQUIRE

That and the only team whose offense scares me in October is LA, who Hamels owns.

by **lowcountry** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:13:52

If Drabek and Happ are in the offer, JP better not be expecting Taylor or Brown, too.

by **Woody** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:15:07

please stop bumping Holliday to the Cardinals

by **Grotewold** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:15:44

What about Drabek, Happ, Taylor, b-lister

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:18:30

Grotewold wrote:What about Drabek, Happ, Taylor, b-lister

That would get it done, but I dont think its necessary to go that far.

Drabek, Happ, Donald, and one of the catchers.

by **karn** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:18:46

Phillies have it totally right. No Drabek, no Brown. Happ + Taylor as center, anything else they want they can have

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:20:30

ek wrote:unfortunately Karn, the jays won't go for that

They might if they don't get a better offer. But they almost certainly will get a better offer.

by **lowcountry** » Mon Jul 27, 2009 10:23:03

Grotewold wrote:What about Drabek, Happ, Taylor, b-lister

I'd frown and offer two of: Drabek, Happ, Taylor, with the other player or players being filler. And if Happ's not in the deal, the filler is pretty much crap.

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Halladay VI: Smug-Off For the Ages Sponsored by lightsout54