Let's say the odds are 50/50 that Drabek or Brown become elite players like Halladay. The odds are probably a lot less, but let's assume 50/50.

So the Jays are asking for 2 players, one of who may develop into an elite player, plus a middle of the rotation starter -- in exchange for Roy Halladay, who will either re-sign with the Phils or for which we get two drafts who also have a chance to develop into elite players.

ek wrote:I also think the phillies are worried about a rotation with Moyer AND Martinez in it even with Halladay. they want to hang on to Happ for that reason I imagine

If it's just 2009 that they concerned about, then that's a horrible way to look at it. They aren't blowing a 6 game lead even with Pedro/Moyer/Lopez rounding out the rotation. Now, for 2010, there's a justifiable reason to want to keep Happ.

I actually get the impression that they want to make this deal, but they're trying to sandbag for two reasons;

a.) keep expectations down in case toronto does something dumb
b.) hope that JP folds at the deadline and says "fine, ill take this for him" and its less than he started with

The x factor here is another team coming in and giving them more, and him not bothering to come back, knowing we're trying to sandbag. Im still worried about the White Sox more than any other team

Why haven't you changed your screenname to JFLTOR?

As previously posted:

Speaking on Sirius XM, commissioner Bud Selig said "I was told by somebody with pretty good inside knowledge that they won’t get rid of him," referring of course to Halladay. He followed that up by saying "Now, whether that’s true or not, I don’t know. And, you know, clubs are going to start bidding it up."

Blair:

Halladay is the face of the Toronto Blue Jays franchise and to let him go would be a devastating blow to baseball not only in Toronto, but in Canada.

hmmm...is it possible that not only Jays upper management, but the commissioner himself has gotten involved in this? I believe Selig's first statement more than his follow-up which was obviously just a cover up for an 'oops!' moment. After the Expos debacle who knows how far baseball may go to keep the Toronto franchise stable? Now it all seems very clear. There are higher powers at work here now.

ek wrote:I also think the phillies are worried about a rotation with Moyer AND Martinez in it even with Halladay. they want to hang on to Happ for that reason I imagine

They don't think even Lopez can do a job approximating Happ? If so, then they are overvaluing Happ.

Halladay
Hamels
Blanton
Moyer
Martinez
Lopez

or

Happ
Hamels
Blanton
Moyer
Martinez
Lopez

Which is the riskier option?

Moyer may not be in the rotation much longer....

Call me crazy, but isn't that another reason to get Halladay?

ek wrote:

Warszawa wrote:
Blair:

Halladay is the face of the Toronto Blue Jays franchise and to let him go would be a devastating blow to baseball not only in Toronto, but in Canada.

but he's leaving anyway after next year. I don't get it

But they'll swear to use the draft picks to draft only Canadians.

ok, i've been reading everyone's take -- speculations... i'm totally confused now on Happ, what I'm not confused on though... is that I want Doc Halladay pitching for the Phils for the next 2 or more years. I really don't care what the deal is at this point. If its a fair deal for both sides, great -- if we overpay a bit - so be it. If we give up Happ and Drabek but keep Brown and Taylor great. If Knapp and Brown who are still undeveloped get in there but we keep Drabek fine...

The bottom line, is that I don't believe in the Phils current pitching staff, and I think that really -- you need two top level pitcher. Hamels came on strong and was lights out in the playoffs last year, but I don't know what we get this year? Everyone else -- is hope and pray time. We need Halladay -- bad.

Make a deal. Be smart, but don't blow it. Don't get too cute. If the Phils pull this off and the deal is not totally lopsided to their favor -- as in they raped all our young talent -- then I won't be thrilled they got such a big haul, but really -- at this point I just want this bad. I can taste repeat-- and day-dream of 3-peat?!!!!

ek wrote:

Warszawa wrote:Moyer may not be in the rotation much longer....

he will be in there the rest of the year. he'd have to take himself out of it

Well they mentioned during the game today that Charlie wouldn't take Lopez out of the rotation as long as he continued to pitch well. Who else is there when Pedro is ready? Or was Charlie just saying nice things?

Lopez wasn't exactly scintillating today.

Charlie never throws his players under the bus

JFLNYC wrote:

ek wrote:

Warszawa wrote:
Blair:

Halladay is the face of the Toronto Blue Jays franchise and to let him go would be a devastating blow to baseball not only in Toronto, but in Canada.

but he's leaving anyway after next year. I don't get it

But they'll swear to use the draft picks to draft only Canadians.

Who knows, a lot can change in between now and then. If ownership cans Ricciardi, dump some other contracts, MLB can step in all covert-like.... then maybe they re-sign him after all.

Anybody else feel bad for Jason Motte today?

Yeah. Me neither.

Warszawa wrote:Well they mentioned during the game today that Charlie wouldn't take Lopez out of the rotation as long as he continued to pitch well.

charlie presumably is betting on that not being an issue for much longer.

Trent Steele wrote:At the beginning of the year, every single person on this board would have JUMPED to make the Drabek, Happ, Brown for Halladay deal. JUMPED.

Yes, they have all made huge leaps forward....just like Marson, Donald, and Carrasco all made huge leaps backwards. Same thing could happen next year. Or May, Gose, Collier, d'Arnaud, Shreve could make huge jumps forward.

This is like going to AC with $1,000, turning into $100,000 in a few hours and deciding whether to buy a Mercedes or stay at the table for the rest of the night.

I read this again and it makes all the sense on the world.

The Phils have won the game, but refuse to stop playing.

Yahoo Sports-

The Angels did indeed make a run at Halladay, offering Jered Weaver plus the Blue Jays’ pick of outfield or infield prospects, including Brandon Wood, but it wasn’t enough.

Lets get real about what its gonna take now.

if we somehow don't get halladay by next friday, i may need to start attending AA meetings the following monday

My heart jumped for a brief second when the Holliday thread was bumped. Reeeally quick, it looks like Halladay.