Halladay V - Final Destination

by **Squire** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 15:49:16

Seriously - does anyone see another team giving up a 1st or 2nd rounder for Marcus Scutaro? I wouldn't count on those picks yet. Luckily his number is low enough that you definitely offer arb.

by **PTOITWCFTPP** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 15:51:12

Squire wrote:Seriously - does anyone see another team giving up a 1st or 2nd rounder for Marcus Scutaro? I wouldn't count on those picks yet. Luckily his number is low enough that you definitely offer arb.

If you offer arb and he accepts, then you get a great utility RH bat for the 2010 Phillies. It's win-win either way.

by **FTN** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 15:51:23

Squire wrote:Seriously - does anyone see another team giving up a 1st or 2nd rounder for Marcus Scutaro? I wouldn't count on those picks yet. Luckily his number is low enough that you definitely offer arb.

thats just the thing. if he takes it, fine, you've got a 2M bench guy capable of playing every infield position who can actually hit. if someone else wants him to be their starter and they want to offer picks, then fine

by **VFB** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 15:54:27

i'm almost as excited for scutaro as roy 8-)

by **JFLNYC** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 15:55:02

FTN wrote:
Squire wrote:Seriously - does anyone see another team giving up a 1st or 2nd rounder for Marcus Scutaro? I wouldn't count on those picks yet. Luckily his number is low enough that you definitely offer arb.

thats just the thing. if he takes it, fine, you've got a 2M bench guy capable of playing every infield position who can actually hit. if someone else wants him to be their starter and they want to offer picks, then fine

And, you could even consider not picking up Feliz' option and let Scutaro play third.

by **Squire** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:06:51

I agree. I just think that is the greater likelihood than picks.

I'm all over the board on this right now. I'm starting to think that I like Taylor better than Brown. I know Brown is 2 years younger but Taylor is now 2 levels ahead and seems primed to replace Werth or Vic. I also like his righthandedness in our lineup.

Happ v. Drabek is getting closer based on Happ's ability to contribute this year and Drabek's previous TJS.

SQUIRE

by **PSUsarge** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:23:01

From Stark's Twitter

Halladay updates: Jays say they won't make deal w Phillies w/o both Drabek & Happ; Angels, Dodgers also get lists. http://tiny.cc/azU6z

by **TheDude24** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:23:27

I saw an argument that Happ hasn't really beaten any good teams, only weak ones. If that's true, maybe his being traded isn't such a bad thing. Hmmm...

by **FTN** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:27:15

Id trade both Happ and Drabek if it meant we held onto both Taylor and Brown.

This is going to blow up in JP's face.

Also, some notes from Gammons

In the Matt Holliday case, manager Tony La Russa was able to convince Cardinals ownership that, in the words of Tom Petty, "it's the wrong thing to do/but I don't care"; tomorrow may never come.

Yankees GM Brian Cashman argues that he doesn't overvalue prospects, which is why he has Phil Hughes pitching like the American League's best eighth-inning reliever, Melky Cabrera in center, Nick Swisher (obtained for Jeffrey Marquez, another pitcher in the package the Twins would've required for Johan Santana) in right and CC Sabathia on the mound, all in lieu of Santana.

When the Yankees approached Toronto about Halladay, the price was Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero. Not happening.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein would argue that Buchholz will be a front-of-the-rotation starter under control for six years (with the ages and injuries on that staff, he may slot in behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester this season), hence Epstein won't trade Buchholz just as he won't trade Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland. Ditto Dodgers GM Ned Colletti on why he won't put Clayton Kershaw in any Halladay deal, especially since Kershaw's 0.92 ERA is the best in the National League since June 16.

It's a thin line that the Phillies are apparently drawing, the Cardinals crossed, Brewers GM Doug Melvin does not want to cross and the Angels never touch. Even if the Mariners chose to move Jarrod Washburn (who has allowed two runs in his past four starts) or Erik Bedard, they are not going to get what they gave for Bedard, or what the Rangers bilked from the Braves for Mark Teixeira.

"Cincinnati wants to move a few contracts, like either Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang, but we're not interested in giving players or taking on their money," says one AL GM. "Harang hasn't been the same guy since last May."

The advantage that the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers have is that they can restock their organizations, either by spending in the international market or going over slot to sign draft choices. If you are the Royals, not only are your revenues light, but the commissioner's office has threatened to take away your 2012 All-Star Game if you go ahead with the agreements you have in place with two high picks.

Link

by **Squire** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:32:39

FTN wrote:Id trade both Happ and Drabek if it meant we held onto both Taylor and Brown.

This is going to blow up in JP's face.

The advantage that the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers have is that they can restock their organizations, either by spending in the international market or going over slot to sign draft choices. If you are the Royals, not only are your revenues light, but the commissioner's office has threatened to take away your 2012 All-Star Game if you go ahead with the agreements you have in place with two high picks.

Link

I agree with all of this. I'd if giving up Happ protects both OFs, its a win-win from my perspective. Less injury risk with OFs. That's despicable of the Commissioner's office and frankly, its flat out an illegal restraint of trade which was not collectively bargained for.

by **Squire** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:37:56

It strikes me that with all of the definitive statements in twitters, one of these GMs is going to lose face/credibility.

by **smitty** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:40:09

Twitters LIE!!!!

by **dajafi** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:41:19

Squire wrote:
FTN wrote:Id trade both Happ and Drabek if it meant we held onto both Taylor and Brown.

This is going to blow up in JP's face.

The advantage that the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers have is that they can restock their organizations, either by spending in the international market or going over slot to sign draft choices. If you are the Royals, not only are your revenues light, but the commissioner's office has threatened to take away your 2012 All-Star Game if you go ahead with the agreements you have in place with two high picks.

Link

I agree with all of this. I'd if giving up Happ protects both OFs, its a win-win from my perspective. Less injury risk with OFs. That's despicable of the Commissioner's office and frankly, its flat out an illegal restraint of trade which was not collectively bargained for.

I defer to your legal judgment... and I'd add that it's disgraceful how the union lies down for amateur players. I'm guessing that Boras doesn't represent either of those guys, because I can't imagine he wouldn't sue.

by **Philly the Kid** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:43:11

My theme has been simple - and single-minded. What deal gives us the greatest chance at winning another WS this year, and possibly next? While I understand the idea that long term Taylor and or Brown may be worth far more than JA Happ, and he had a bad outting last night -- BUT -- what do we need RIGHT NOW to make it to the finish line and compete strongly in the post-season? Neither Taylor nor Brown factor for this year maybe Taylor shows up next year if someone is hurt.

If we include Happy and Drabek, and some second tier guys -- then we are still relying very very heavily on Moyer, Blanton and Pedro to get us through. Only Doc and Cole are guys we can feel confident in going to playoffs. Myers isn't coming back. If Pedro can't succeed at all -- and if Moyer keeps getting bombed... its dicey to lose Happ. I'd probably do it -- but this for me, isn't about all factors in total -- it's really about actually winning another WS this year or next. Simple as that. We really have a shot and let's focus on now, not some day -- maybe when....

by **TenuredVulture** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:46:35

Here's the thing--Halladay for Happ makes the team better, but not as good as the 2009 team would be with Halladay and Happ.

But let's say we give up Happ, keep Drabek, and manage to sign Halladay long-term. That, I think is a better long term situation.

by **FTN** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:53:28

Blair's twitter

@EB0 I'm not a Happ fan. No 4 guy at very best. Jays can't make deal without Drabek and Brown/Taylor.
about 1 hour ago from TweetDeck in reply to EB0

Jays scout thinks there's one "big team" yet to make play for Doc. Red Sox?
about 1 hour ago from TweetDeck

Told Roy wants team near Florida home (Palm Harbour). Red Sox (Fort Myers) is one hellacious drive from Palm Harbour.
about 1 hour ago from TweetDeck

RT @ed_price: #Phillies talks with #BlueJays are "earnest" source says. 2nd source said Tor has to have "both pitchers," presumably Happ ...
about 1 hour ago from TweetDeck

But if you trade Doc, you need to get the other teams best prospect. With Phillies, it's apparently Drabek.
19 minutes ago from TweetDeck

@jdotwdot OK. I'll agree. For me, max deal with phils tho is drabek AND TAYLOR AND BROWN. Rather have the two bats than Happ.
13 minutes ago from TweetDeck in reply to jdotwdot

RT @ed_price: Source: "I'd be shocked" if #Phillies "reverse course" and include Happ+Drabek for Halladay. But 2nd source sez #BlueJays ...
7 minutes ago from TweetDeck

@Fox_Matthew But this whole thing still has a ways to go.
4 minutes ago from TweetDeck in reply to Fox_Matthew

by **Philly the Kid** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:56:53

TenuredVulture wrote:Here's the thing--Halladay for Happ makes the team better, but not as good as the 2009 team would be with Halladay and Happ.

But let's say we give up Happ, keep Drabek, and manage to sign Halladay long-term. That, I think is a better long term situation.

I haven't read a credible rumour that excludes Drabek. Drabke seems to be the anchor player -- the 'given' -- its what else. If you agree with me that Happ is more vaulable to a WS run THIS year than Brown or Taylor to some hypo-thetical run in 2012, then even if Happ is really an imposter and won't ahve an illustrious career and Taylor is a future AS -- you still fight to keep Happ THIS year because we are so close to repeating.

by **dajafi** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 16:56:56

I'm strongly against torture, but I'd consider an exception if applied to whoever loosed Twitter upon the world. I loathe everything about it.

by **FTN** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 17:00:06

dajafi wrote:I'm strongly against torture, but I'd consider an exception if applied to whoever loosed Twitter upon the world. I loathe everything about it.

like any kind of media, i think you consider the source. guys who are connected, who have insight, can share it on the spot and you dont have to wait a day to read their column in the paper. Guys who are bored and want to stir shit up are idiots. I mean, Goldstein is a good example. He posts a few updates a day, just hits on random minor league lines. I find great value in that.

Its like any other form of media or communication. You have to get through the noise.

by **JFLNYC** » Sat Jul 25, 2009 17:03:20

Well, I'm already on record that I'd do Drabek, Happ and Brown for Halladay (plus the two draft picks) if absolutely necessary. If JPR is insisting on those 3, expand the deal, insist on Scutaro, too, even if you have to throw in Donald. Halladay, Scutaro and 4 draft picks is a no-brainer for me, although I understand I'm in a distinct minority.

My hope is that Rube has more info than we do and is confident he can hold firm on not giving up all three of Drabek, Happ and Brown and still get the deal done. But I'm very nervous that he's going to blow it and someone like the Angels or White Sox is going to swoop in with an offer JPR likes.

I see a deal to be made which meets all the Phils' criteria for going for it now without sacrificing the future (with the draft picks being key, of course). If it doesn't get done now, it's going to be because of lack of creative dealmaking, guts or both -- and that's going to depress me a lot. It's taken so many years to get to this point for the Phils. For heaven's sake, don't blow it now.

Archived

Halladay V - Final Destination