FTN wrote:Monkeyboy wrote:philliesphhan wrote:No, all he said is trading for Halladay isn't mortgaging the future.
He's saying it like it's a fact, but it may very well be mortgaging the future if we don't replace those guys with premium talent and they go on to be solid MLers.
Im saying it as an opinion backed up with concrete ideas. You're speaking in generalities. Want me to show you why I disagree?I agree that it's not necessarily mortaging the future, but I don't know how you can say that having 3 or 4 of our top prospects disappear doesn't hurt our ability to feed the big club with top talent, something that needs to happen to stay competitive.
First, you don't know which prospects are involved. If its Drabek plus three guys not in the Taylor, Brown, Carrasco and Knapp group, then you've taken one impact guy and three lesser guys. Second, the current ML team is going to be competitive for the next 2.5 years, even if no one is added, either externally or from the farm. The ML team has a $130M payroll, and unlike, say, the Marlins, we don't have to unload assets to survive financially...its just the opposite actually. Yes, we do need cheap, quality talent coming through, but our ML team is pretty well set for the next few seasons.
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I agree that I don't know what prospects will be involved, which is why this argument is a strawman on your part. I have no problem with them trading Drabek and a few 2nd and 3rd tier guys and have said so repeatedly. You just don't seem to want to hear it because then it's easier to make fun of me. What I have been arguing against, and I'll just say it again, is the groupthink that says we should trade several of the big guns (whatever it takes) to get Halladay. That is what people have been saying and that is what I have been arguing against. I would have no problem with the trade Squire mentioned, for example.
And I understand what you are saying about the team being set for the next 2-3 years. I agree with that part, but I think we disagree on what is the best way to integrate new players into a winning team. I would prefer to do that over the next 1-2 years while the team is winning, allowing the new players to overlap with the old players, like we did with Werth. You seem to prefer having a few holes open at once and then filling those holes with players with little ML experience, except for maybe a sept callup. I think that way is more risky, but I undersatnd where you're coming from. So I think that's mostly a difference of opinion.
FTN wrote:[.Less premier and developed talent leads to less margin for error when drafting and developing other talent. We'll need to be very good at signing and developing guys for the next 2 years to make up for the loss. I realize we would get 2 draft picks IF Halladay stays healthy and he becomes a free agent, but those two picks aren't guaranteed or even likely to be as good as the guys we're giving up, especially since Arbunkle and several of his top guys are gone
This highlights the weakness in your argument. Arbuckle's impact on our drafting was minimal. He favors, by all accounts, projectable righthanded pitchers, but Wolever likes the same types of guys, hence us drafting Brody Colvin in the 7th round of this past draft. Wolever is still here, he runs the drafts, and most all of the scouts remained here. Arbuckle's absence, if you could even figure out how big of a loss it is, seems minimal at best. Also, the names being given in trades are guys who were taken outside of the first round in every instance except for Drabek. Taylor was a 5th round pick who signed for slot money, Brown was a 20th round pick who signed for $200K. How much do you know about these guys? How closely do you follow the minors? Because the year Taylor was taken, he scuffled in the NYPL and was basically on no one's radar at all, including mine. Now hes an untouchable. Some people who argue we shouldnt be trading prospects (I won't name names) called Drabek a bust on draft day and said he'd never pan out. Now hes untouchable. Prospect status is a fluid thing. This year's untouchable is next year's down and out prospect. Carrasco was a stud of studs after he torched the SAL a few years ago. Now no one is talking about him being a.) untouchable b.) our of our 3 best prospects.
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I was under the impression Arbunkle set the tone for the player development. Given that he's now gone, I don't think anyone can say how good the new team will be. I know arbunkle preferred big righties, I think we all know that, but we don't know what arguments took place behind the scenes, etc. New people mean a new dynamic. I'm glad you are confident that everything will stay hunky dory, but I think that's wishful thinking based on what you think will happen. Wolever is a big tools guy, and many of those guys have been busts. I really don't hear anyone doing cartwheels over this year's draft.
I do agree though that prospect status is a fluid thing and anything can happen. That's part of my point: we can't say if we will be able to continue to develop stud players, especially when the dynamics of the player development group has changed. I'm hopeful, but hardly feel super confident.
BTW, I do follow our minors closely, though I haven't had as much time to run all over the place looking for small snippets this year because of moving, the new job, and getting married. In the past, however, I have been a bit of a minors junky. I just don't post much in the minors thread in much the same way I don't do stat analysis very often. But just because I don't post about it doesn't mean I don't follow it. I understand why you would think I don't follow the minors though.
FTN wrote:[I'm hoping the guys that remain will do a good job evaluating and developing talent, but there is no guarantee of it, and again, that assumes Halladay stays healthy and we get the two picks. You keep acting like anything that disagrees with your premise is a crapshoot and everything that agrees with your premise is a stone cold lock. That's not the case, no matter how many times you say it.
This is the type of rhetoric Montgomery is trying to push, and its ridiculous. Here are the current rankings with the 2009 in season performance accounted for. Halladay has the highest Elias ranking of all pitchers in Major League Baseball. He'd basically have to completely tank for the rest of this season and have an awful 2010 to not be a Type A free agent.
Im not trying to contend that my opinion is the only one that matters. But I think that I have a decent idea. I spend as much time studying the minors as I do the majors. How much do you know about Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald and Lou Marson, among others, to know whether these guys are going to turn into all stars, average regulars, 4A players, or busts? I've outlined my case and backed it up with what I know and what I've gathered from other places. You're free to disagree with it, but if you want to, I'd appreciate you using facts and some type of concrete argument other than just generalities. There are enough people on this site who speak in vague generalities already.
I'll tell you how he doesn't end up a type A free agent: Injury. Guarantee me he won't get injured and I'll concede that we'll get two picks. Look at Myers. He was looking like a mid-A, but now we'll get nothing, unless he comes back and pitches at the end of the season. It happens all the time, especially to pitchers. Halladay has racked up an obscene amount of innings over the past 5 years. Freddy Garcia ring a bell? It's the same reason why I am willing to trade Drabek: you just can't trust pitchers to stay healthy.
I believe I've been as specific as you have been. I've given examples throughout my posts. And my argument is every bit as concrete as yours. I haven't started a blog on the subject, but I do read as much as I can about the subject. When many people wanted to trade Howard years ago, I wrote post after post about why we shouldn't do it. Same with Utley. Now I find myself doing the same thing about Taylor. Maybe I'm wrong. But my opinion is based on watching baseball for decades, and following the minors closely for the past decade. In any case, I think I deserve to express my opinion without ridicule (not saying you're doing that now).
