I brought this up in a round about way I think a week or so ago, but I will ask again. Which do you think is greater, Knapp+Carrasco or Drabek? It may be because of the hype but I would rather keep Drabek and give up the others just because Drabek is closer and a lot of things can happen with Knapp over the next couple years.

mozartpc27 wrote:Riccardi would have to be an unusual combination of ballsy and stupid for that offer to have been merely a bluff. I mean - what if the Mets had said "yes"?

The only way it makes sense that it was a bluff is if the Mets were in on it - only that's against the rules, ain't it?

I cant imagine there are any rules that would prevent such a thing

Crap, we still have 10 more days of this.

No, it's today

Trent Steele wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:Riccardi would have to be an unusual combination of ballsy and stupid for that offer to have been merely a bluff. I mean - what if the Mets had said "yes"?

The only way it makes sense that it was a bluff is if the Mets were in on it - only that's against the rules, ain't it?

I cant imagine there are any rules that would prevent such a thing

It's not like collusion or something? It's one thing for one team to bluff, but for two teams in tandem to bluff to get a third to do something... I don't know, it seems a little fishy. But if it's not against the rules, it was a two-team bluff, and the Mets were in on it, then:



EPIC FAIL, METS & JAYS.

The Dude wrote:No, it's today

I'd like to believe that. I really would. I do like the assist we got from Ken Rosenthal on the "Phillies looking at Lee" notion. THe Phillies should get their own bluff going with the Indians, only make this one waaaaaay better.

As much as I love Halladay, I'd go hard after Cliff Lee now. Who wants to deal with a weasel like Riccardi? How can you possibly trust him now? He's likely to take you down to the last minute, tell you you've got a deal, then either do a deal with someone else, try to hold you up for more or just pull the deal. I just wouldn't trust him and the stakes are too high to deal with someone like that.

I think you're reading way too much into something that was probably not floated by them

Threats are meaningless unless you really intend to make good. The Phils should turn to Lee, but be serious. You can't use another GM (in this case Shapiro) just to get what you want. BTW, that's one more thing that makes JPR such an idiot because he tried to use Minaya.

Again, reading too much into something that probably wasn't their doing. I think it was a crappy source, or false rumor. I don't think JPR is smart, but trying to bluff with a package that everyone knows sucks would be beyond ridiculous

phillychuck wrote:I'm on the fence a bit on this one. Like everyone here I'd love to trade a bunch of B-level prospects for Halladay, but when you start talking about Happ + Drabek + Taylor + Knapp I back away, not just because those guys are good, but because that package is way over the historical norms for this kind of trade.

I've lost track - was that specific combo on the table, or are you using it simply as illustration?

And forgive my ignorance - and that's what it is - is there a good source/method for making the sort of "historical norms" comparison you've suggested? Are there comparables to reference? And does it provide both before & after results? B/C that would be really cool & probably prevent me from getting any work done the rest of the week.

Regarding whether sending four young players away will make the team stink for five years a few seasons from now, I tend to believe it might.

In 5 years the US economy might be sold off to India, and we'll all be watching cricket.

....to some extent, we were very lucky with some of those pick-ups, and that luck might not repeat.

The luck the phils starting rotation is enjoying currently almost certainly will not repeat, or even continue until the leaves turn color.

What if the Dodgers had decided to pay the 25K it would have taken to get Vic back? What if Werth's wrist hadn't healed? We can't be sure we'll remain that lucky in the future....

....Within a few years we're probably going to have to trade both Howard and Rollins, and build around Utley, Hamels, (Haladay?), and maybe Vic. Whether we stink or not depends on the value we get for Howard and Rollins and whether we can fill in around the core with farm guys, the trade return for the stars, and dumpster dives. Trading an elite package of prospects makes it harder to do that.

What mysterious amber are you anticipating will encase the baseball environment for the 'few years' you posit that, based on actions taken NOW, will severely diminish a hypothetical bargaining position for the Phillies at the end of that period? You can't seriously suggest you have enough evidence in hand to credibly quantify this. And if you do, let me tell you, there's major coin to be made in accurately predicting the weather that far out, so why are you wasting time on armchair baseball mgmt?

I don't mean to get all harsh with you PC, you're a soothing voice of reason around here. And I know you've said you're on the fence. I'm just aiming to get you to jump with both feet into the Halladay At All Costs Testicular Sacrifice Pool!

RE: The thread title.

Not mine.

lowcountry wrote:RE: The thread title.

Not mine.

Priapism.

CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Mark Teixtera and Jake Peavy to White Sox that was blocked by Peavy are comparable.

BassGuiFloyd wrote:CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Mark Teixtera and Jake Peavy to White Sox that was blocked by Peavy are comparable.

If you're taking up my inquiry to PChuck, B, thanks - now all we need is for someone to run up those before/after #s to know if we have something to talk about

drsmooth wrote:

BassGuiFloyd wrote:CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Mark Teixtera and Jake Peavy to White Sox that was blocked by Peavy are comparable.

If you're taking up my inquiry to PChuck, B, thanks - now all we need is for someone to run up those before/after #s to know if we have something to talk about

Sabathia really isnt the same since he it was a 2 month trade.

Santana not really the same because he had basically limited himself to the Mets.

Peavy? I guess that's closer, but he's not the same caliber as Halladay.

Texiera is probably the closest. Braves gave up some damn good players to get him, although I dont remember what the view was on Feliz at the time.

We're going to have to wait to see how those trades decimated the teams that gave away the prospects, too

JFLNYC wrote:Threats are meaningless unless you really intend to make good. The Phils should turn to Lee, but be serious.

If they are in a position to talk sensibly with the indians, that would be great. I love me the smell of monopsony in the morning. mind you, that's not quite true since the indians certainly don't have to sell lee either. but it would add to leverage with the jays, and certainly put more pressure on riccardi. if he was left with halladay going into christmas and we paid out almost the same for lee, he's not looking like such a smart chap.

The Dude wrote:We're going to have to wait to see how those trades decimated the teams that gave away the prospects, too

It's a tough bit of analytical slogging, no questions asked

Here is the way I'm looking at this, we have ALL the leverage here (especially with the way the team is playing recently), we have the best quality and quantity of prospects to offer... no one really comes close in that regard. Halladay will most certainly waive his NTC to come here...

Ricciardi is panicing at this point, he knows he wants to make a trade, but he has no leverage, no multiple offers from other teams that are solid, his job is on the line... he is doing anything right now to drive up the price...

unfortunately i dont think it is working like that, i still think the phils are the front runners here with an awful good chance to land halladay without giving up drabek or brown or Knapp...

My prediction - Taylor, Donald, Marson, Savery

which in itself is still a pretty darn good haul