Monkeyboy wrote: Get Doc now and moderately upgrade our chances the next two years, or keep the prospects and have a better chance to win consistently over the next 5-7 years.

Monkeyboy wrote: I do think, however, we could use another reliever

Y'know, it's taken a lot to get me going this season, it really, really has. I've been blissed the fuck out and up to my eyes in parenting, so I've not really had the need to get angry about things I can do nothing about. But this shit takes the fucking biscuit. And before I get worse, I want to issue some kind of an apology, because I deliberately try and avoid getting really ad hominem on people's arses. Monkeyboy, this is not at you. This is just at the nimbyist, quavering motherfuck oh shit something might go horribly wrong so I'm just not going to take the risk attitude, okay? You're a nice lad, a guy who has to work hard, a sound fella bout to get married, and I wish you all the best.

and I can almost see your point of view.

Except I really fucking can't.

Now, it's easy just to point at floppy's extensive post about the value of Halladay and say BUT WHY DON'T ALL YOU NON-TRADING MOTHERFUCKERS REALLY PULL UP YOUR STINKING DIARRHOEAIC SOAKED NAPPIES AND COP THE MOTHER OF ALL FUCKS ON, but it's not even that.

Monkeyboy wrote: I do think, however, we could use another reliever

Really, A PERFECTLY SENSIBLE PERSON IN THE FACE OF ONE OF THE BEST PITCHERS IN BASEBALL IS SAYING TRADE FOR FUCKING RELIEF.

RELIEF?

YOU WANT RELIEF, GO TAKE A DUMP. UNLOAD ALL THAT QUERELOUS PISS AND BOTHERSOME SHITE IN THE TOILET. NOT HERE, AND NOT ON MY MOTHER OF ALL BASTARDING TEAMS. OUR NEED FOR RELIEF IS NOT GREATER THAN OUR NEED FOR A TOP 5 STARTER.

You wan't to know what REALLY GETS MY MOTHERFUCKING GOAT ABOUT ALL THIS WHINGING, PENNYANTE BOLLIX ABOUT NOT TRADING AWAY THE FUTURE?

1) we automatically assume, in the face of three years drafting evidence to the contrary, that we will not get value out of the draft THE MINUTE WE SIGN HALLADAY, AND THAT ALL THE LESSONS LEARNED FROM LAST YEAR WILL BE IN YESTERDAY'S TRASH ALLONG WITH ALL THE BELLYACHING GRIPE AND AND POO STAINED DIAPERS.

2) we forget that we could resign halladay for longer, and that even as he loses his ace ability (and I have no idea when that will be, but he's not exactly putting on the pounds is he? We're not talking about a man steadily driving towards some fucking cliff, determined to zoom over with all our hopes in his back mother fucking pocket now, are we? really? Please, show me the incredible drop off that MIGHT JUST BE AROUND THE CORNER, OR MAYBE, JUST UNDER MY PISS SOAKED BED SO I DON'T WANT TO TURN THE FUCKING LIGHTS OFF MOMMY!)

3) explain to me what warped, non-euclidean logic of ancient evil says that trading for halladay now is not a sure thing, but that collectively the prospects all somehow have a greater probability of being better? One of flop's point in his analysis, and it's a good one, is that it's hard to quantify how well the prospects will do, so he stripped it back to service time that we'd have going in our favour. other folk here talk about how they don't want to pay the big bucks to free agents because we've somehow cleaned out our farm system? What, does the deal include everyone we're going to sign this year as well? You now, I forget the bit where rube gets gillick to continue doing his dumpster diving so we can get by with a mixture of utility guys who never cost a dramatic amount. Because apparently we have no record of that. Nope, we never picked up werth, dobbs and victorino from nowhere. OR MAYBE WE DID, BUT WE WERE LUCKY AND NOW OUR LUCK HAS RUN OUT. THAT'S RIGHT, PIMPLE ARSED BITCHES, WE WERE JUST LUCKY. SHEEHAN IS RIGHT, AND WE'RE JUST A BOUNCING BALLOON FULL OF HOT AIR THAT A ONE IN A MILLION WORLD FUCKING CHAMPIONSHIP BLEW UP OUR ALL TO GRATEFUL BUTTHOLES.

4) We fail to recognise the peripheral benefits of trading for halladay. let me count the ways:
- it takes pressure off cole, who's having a tough season
- it makes us more attractive to anyone we try to sign in the offseason, putting us in a stronger negotiating position
- it makes us more attractive to those guys on the draft we're trying to sign this year. See them? the phils? they stood up and took the best pitcher in baseball. they make the right moves to win. I'd like to sign with that organisation.
- it may have a similar effect in the future if he stays around for longer.
- we get two guaranteed draft picks if he doesn't resign with us. if he does resign with us, we look even better as an organisation.

Really, I keep going back to two things. I think it was zolecki who said that rube and the organisation are really up for this, and have been gearing towards this kind of a trade for two years. That cheers me up no end, because it reminds me that rube is not thinking like wade, is happy to make the big move.

and two, floppy's continued belief in our drafting system. From what I read, he has good reasons for that belief and I have heard no arguments to the contrary.

I am not angry now.

goodbye.

To all those asserting that you won't care if the Phillies stink five years from now if they win the World Series this year. That's total crap. Last year everyone was saying that if the Phillies won the World Series you'd be happy for a decade. Now your complaining that the Phillies are only 'likely' to get to the World Series instead of all-but-guaranteed to win it. Your satisfaction didn't last nine months, yet you're trying to peddle the notion that next time it'll last five or ten years. Total nonsense.

ashton wrote:To all those asserting that you won't care if the Phillies stink five years from now if they win the World Series this year. That's total crap.

This is pretty much pure truth. I don't think five years from now we would be bragging so much about our title(s) as bitching about how far we have fallen. I just don't see a reason why even if we do trade for Halladay we have to take a big tumble in the future. If the operation as a whole stays true we continue to reload and do what we need to do to stay competetive within the division and baseball in general while not worrying so much about future repercussions.

That's why it seems we are in such a good state right now. We have a pretty great team right now. Halladay would be a great acquisition and maybe we can acquire him. If we do I don't think we will sacrificing the future so much as assuring the near future to the maximum.

We have it so much better than any team in our division right now. We are buyers in a buyers market. The Mets might even be sellers but what do they have to sell that that they could take advantage of in the future without basically tearing apart everything good they got? They aren't going to trade David Wright for over market value. The smaller market teams will be able to capitalize in a buyers market. The Marlins aren't in a situation where they can make crazy trades and hit the jackpot right now. They need to maintain some kind of legitimacy for their near future.

We are in the drivers seat and it is becoming a pretty nice drive.

Well, like I said, I fall pretty close to the middle on this one. If we trade for him, I'll be happy he's here, but will evaluate the trade based on who we have to give up to get him here. If we don't trade for him, then I think we would still be helped by strengthening other parts of the team. I really don't see what's strange about that, unless you're inclined to think Halladay is a good righty hitting option off the bench.

I really didn't read Floppy's extensive post on the subject. I was out of town for a few days getting my marriage license and whatnot, so I only checked in briefly to try to keep caught up on the major news. Maybe his post would have changed my mind, maybe not.

Basically, I think we'll be ok either way, as long as we continue to make good baseball decisions. What getting a well-paid Halladay does, assuming we have to give up the farm to get him, is lower our margin for error in making those decisions. For every Werth, there's a Jenkins, or maybe even 3 Jenkins. Trading away good prospects makes betting on the Werths of the world more of a necessity, and those guys don't usually work out. I have routinely applauded our team's ability to find those guys, but we've lost Gillick and Arbunkle and several other key personnel and there's no guarantee we'd pick the right guys even if they were all still here. How would we all feel if Howard or Utley was playing for someone else right now because Wade traded them to try to get us over the hump and it didn't work out? Hold that thought and then imagine if we traded those guys when we were already destined to make the playoffs, just for a marginally better chance to win it all. Chances are there isn't another Howard or Utley or Hamels in our current prospects, but there could be. Anyway, I think you are marginally hurting our long-term chances for a marginally better chance now. Given Halladay's cost, both financial and in terms of prospects, I'd rather take our chances with the guys we have, or trade for a more average starter. I think we're mostly splitting hairs because any one player, especially a guy that doesn't play every day, isn't likely to be the difference between winning and losing the world series. There are just too many moving parts for that to be the case. If it was that predictable, more teams would repeat.

But thanks for the mostly civil post, wizlah. I always enjoy a good rant.

Wait, so it's okay to trade for a reliever/bat off the bench who will have even less of an opportunity to have a more marginal impact in a playoff situation than it is to trade for a pitcher who will go at least 7 innings? and halladay gives us a better chance to win again next year?

and like I said, the cost is high if we're never getting another drabek+taylor/brown ever ever again. Please, give me a convincing argument why our farm system is going to dry up, then I'll believe that you have a valid point.

I swear, all of you are now living in ed wade land. slow and careful. don't do anything to rash. Next, someone is going to accuse advocates of a halladay trade of bringing a boom and bust mentality. or calling them bankers.

just when I calmed down, y'all went and got me angry again.

Wizlah wrote:just when I calmed down, y'all went and got me angry again.

Two words: Freddy Garcia.

ashton wrote:To all those asserting that you won't care if the Phillies stink five years from now if they win the World Series this year. That's total crap.

What team is great for 10 years? We're arguably in what, year three already? At the very least, year two. I'm not looking forward to the Phillies sucking and I hope the organization somehow does like the Boston, St. Louis, and Atlanta of the past and fields a decent team over a lengthy period of time, but the fantasy that the Phillies are going to get a shot at the World Series three or four times more times the next five years is also total crap, prospects or not.

VoxOrion wrote:

ashton wrote:To all those asserting that you won't care if the Phillies stink five years from now if they win the World Series this year. That's total crap.

What team is great for 10 years? We're arguably in what, year three already? At the very least, year two. I'm not looking forward to the Phillies sucking and I hope the organization somehow does like the Boston, St. Louis, and Atlanta of the past and fields a decent team over a lengthy period of time, but the fantasy that the Phillies are going to get a shot at the World Series three or four times more times the next five years is also total crap, prospects or not.

100%

I don't want to be the Braves if I have a chance to be the Yankees or Red Sox. We have that chance.

Wizlah wrote:
Y'know, it's taken a lot to get me going this season, it really, really has....

...I am not angry now.

goodbye.

Nor I.

Merely curious if Halladay's bags have arrived in Philadelphia yet. Because damn.

Wiz is back. This is good

Not the off-topic economics thread, but if anyone is looking for expressions of the concept behavioral economists refer to as loss aversion - a tendency most of them claim is utterly hardwired into the mammalian information processing apparatus - well, you've come to the right place.

For those interested, I'm taking up a testicle collection in support of the acquire Halladay campaign. We're only asking for one.

paypal?

Corporate america has effectively castrated me already, so what the hell

I read FTN's extensive post on how doing this deal doesn't mean the Phillies will be horrendous for years to come. He mentions how important it is for the Phillies to restock the system over the coming years. I've read many a posts on here destroying the Phillies for wasting picks on "athletes" like Hewitt, and refusing to break slot enough. Can I and should I have complete confidence in the organaztion to be able to restock the farm?

All I'm saying is that I'm surprised that how the Halladay thing has reached TO-like levels. It's overshadowed the fact that the Phillies are playing great baseball again. Everyone said a rotation of Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton wouldn't be close to good enough last year. The division belongs to the Phillies. If it didn't, I could talk myself into this. I guess I'm just astounded how people forgoet how horrible it is to root for a bad baseball team. Montgomery is right about that.

I just don't see the direct result of trading for Halladay is having to watch a bad baseball team again. There's a huge risk with any of these prospects, to assume that they're all going to come in here and keep this team at this level is more dangerous to me.

And yes, they won with the pitching staff last year. But that was with Hamels winning the MVP of the LCS and WFC, and he's nowhere near that level right now. Just b/c you were able to win last year with a similar staff doesn't mean you don't go after the best pitcher in baseball without hurting the current roster

I have no interest in trying to convince anyone any more. The Phillies haven't been a bad baseball team in a decade. With one exception they have won 85 games or more every year since 2000, and they won 80 in that one year. With the new stadium and potentially multiple world series appearances, that's not going to change.

I'm on the fence a bit on this one. Like everyone here I'd love to trade a bunch of B-level prospects for Halladay, but when you start talking about Happ + Drabek + Taylor + Knapp I back away, not just because those guys are good, but because that package is way over the historical norms for this kind of trade.

Regarding whether sending four young players away will make the team stink for five years a few seasons from now, I tend to believe it might. The cheap talent that is needed to succeed in Philadelphia (and any place other than NY, Boston, and LA) comes from two places--the farm system, which, as Floppy pointed out, will still be OK even if we traded a premier package away) and cheap pick ups like Victorino and Werth. (and Dobbs and Romero to an extent). The problem is that a solid contending team like the Phils probably won't be able to repeat the Werth/Vic pick ups, and it's harder for us to break in prospects simply because we won't be able to find the holes/playing time to slot those guys in. And, to some extent, we were very lucky with some of those pick-ups, and that luck might not repeat. What if the Dodgers had decided to pay the 25K it would have taken to get Vic back? What if Werth's wrist hadn't healed? We can't be sure we'll remain that lucky in the future.

To remain competitive, Ruben is going to have to shed salary and decide which players are the true core of this team. Within a few years we're probably going to have to trade both Howard and Rollins, and build around Utley, Hamels, (Haladay?), and maybe Vic. Whether we stink or not depends on the value we get for Howard and Rollins and whether we can fill in around the core with farm guys, the trade return for the stars, and dumpster dives. Trading an elite package of prospects makes it harder to do that.

phillychuck wrote:I'm on the fence a bit on this one. Like everyone here I'd love to trade a bunch of B-level prospects for Halladay, but when you start talking about Happ + Drabek + Taylor + Knapp I back away, not just because those guys are good, but because that package is way over the historical norms for this kind of trade.

I don't think the trade would require anything like that package

And again, we keep talking about the cheap talent, but that's as big of a risk as trading for Halladay. We don't know those guys will pan out, so we don't know that cheap talent will be available. And there are at least two years to see which other prospects will be on the rise, and to draft more

phillychuck wrote:I'm on the fence a bit on this one. Like everyone here I'd love to trade a bunch of B-level prospects for Halladay, but when you start talking about Happ + Drabek + Taylor + Knapp I back away, not just because those guys are good, but because that package is way over the historical norms for this kind of trade.

Regarding whether sending four young players away will make the team stink for five years a few seasons from now, I tend to believe it might. The cheap talent that is needed to succeed in Philadelphia (and any place other than NY, Boston, and LA) comes from two places--the farm system, which, as Floppy pointed out, will still be OK even if we traded a premier package away) and cheap pick ups like Victorino and Werth. (and Dobbs and Romero to an extent). The problem is that a solid contending team like the Phils probably won't be able to repeat the Werth/Vic pick ups, and it's harder for us to break in prospects simply because we won't be able to find the holes/playing time to slot those guys in. And, to some extent, we were very lucky with some of those pick-ups, and that luck might not repeat. What if the Dodgers had decided to pay the 25K it would have taken to get Vic back? What if Werth's wrist hadn't healed? We can't be sure we'll remain that lucky in the future.

To remain competitive, Ruben is going to have to shed salary and decide which players are the true core of this team. Within a few years we're probably going to have to trade both Howard and Rollins, and build around Utley, Hamels, (Haladay?), and maybe Vic. Whether we stink or not depends on the value we get for Howard and Rollins and whether we can fill in around the core with farm guys, the trade return for the stars, and dumpster dives. Trading an elite package of prospects makes it harder to do that.

Reasonable points, but I think ownership is now aware that if they can keep CBP full they can have a payroll of $130-150 million and still make money. While not a guarantee, you have to be an epically bad GM to not be competitive with a Top 5-7 payroll.

wouldn't that Mets rumor makes the Phillies lower their offer?