The Dude wrote:I think the "Pedro makes Happ more expendable" thing has been most our first hunch on here. Not sure how likely it is, since they had a hole in the rotation, anyway

Bundle Pedro in to swing the deal. A return to Canada for Pedro. Just trying to keep things lite.

BigB wrote:http://www.torontosun.com/sports/baseball/2009/07/14/10123446-sun.html

Writer from Toronto has the Phillies behind the Angels and Yankees as far as aquiring Halladay. Says the Blue Jays don't like the prospects the Phillies are WILLING to give up. My guess is Ruben is low balling on purpose because he doesn't have enough scratch ($$$ this year) to get him.

The Phillies are paying Jenkins 6.5 mill, Eaton, 9.15 mill, Thome 4.5 mill all to not play on the team. If I am the ownership of this team I would not be happy about 20 mill of a 130 mill budget going to 3 players who are not playing for them. Then add in Myers 12 mill for a few starts since he is hurt and this team is essentally playing with as 98 mill payroll.

Or, Rube is giving an offer better in prospect terms than anyone else can give, which is still without 2/3 of our top prospects (Drabek and Brown), and what got leaked here was a move by the Blue Jays to try to force Rube to panic and offer Drabek either in addition to what they've already offered or instead of some other piece.

I'm more worried that the Blue Jays won't move Halladay without moving Wells, Rios, or Rolen than I am that the Phillies prospects aren't better than anything anyone else can offer, because I'm pretty sure they are.

JP telling people that he isn't trading Halladay without including a Wells or a Rolen is the same as saying he isn't trading Halladay. Nobody in the league is stupid enough to take on Wells' contract. I still think a deal can get done here but I get the feeling that JP may be overplaying his hand a bit.

mozartpc27 wrote:Or, Rube is giving an offer better in prospect terms than anyone else can give, which is still without 2/3 of our top prospects (Drabek and Brown), and what got leaked here was a move by the Blue Jays to try to force Rube to panic and offer Drabek either in addition to what they've already offered or instead of some other piece.

I'm more worried that the Blue Jays won't move Halladay without moving Wells, Rios, or Rolen than I am that the Phillies prospects aren't better than anything anyone else can offer, because I'm pretty sure they are.

I agree on all points. With the possible exception of the Angels (who don't usually make huge in-season moves unless they can get a guy for a pittance, as with Tex last year), the Phils are the only team outside the AL East that's an obvious fit. I guess it's possible that they'll deal him and Wells to the Yankees, but if that's the case, fine.

Here's hoping Ruben knows he's got the best hand in the game.

ek wrote:something just came out that says the Blue Jays will not negotiate a trade for Halladay until deadline day, July 31st

If Riccardi really let that slip, he's even dumber than I thought he was. Why would you want other team to think there is no possibility he can be dealt before the 31st? That drives down urgency, and therefore competition, and therefore price.

ek wrote:http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp.ymd=20090714&content_id=5870174&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

that makes no sense either - if a team were to negotiate an extension before the trade they'd be willing to offer more for him.

Maybe Halladay isn't on the block at all and Riccardi is just trying to get fired.

Here's the thing: if Halladay turns out to be ungettable for the Phillies, I fully believe they'll bring in some other, lesser arm. Amaro wants to deal. This whole "the Phillies can't afford it" stuff is silly. With Pedro, they'll practically make what they spend this season on him in t-shirts and jerseys (I know I'm a sucker waiting to happen). Same probably goes for Halladay, since he's only owed a little over $4M more this season.

maybe he has told jp that he won't talk to anybody about anything until next season? So he doesn't want the lack of an extension to quash the deal?

Bucky wrote:maybe he has told jp that he won't talk to anybody about anything until next season? So he doesn't want the lack of an extension to quash the deal?

In his conversation on 950 yesterday, Halladay didn't sound like he was against renegotiating. The question was whether he'd require it, and he was noncommital.

I hate this. I can't concentrate on anything else. I am willing a trade to happen tomorrow. I WANT HALLADAY.

ek wrote:something just came out that says the Blue Jays will not negotiate a trade for Halladay until deadline day, July 31st

this lines up with what realken was saying yesterday on DNL. basically, toronto wants to spend the next few weeks scouting every possible prospect. they hadnt done any scouting yet, supposedly.

VFB wrote:

ek wrote:something just came out that says the Blue Jays will not negotiate a trade for Halladay until deadline day, July 31st

this lines up with what realken was saying yesterday on DNL. basically, toronto wants to spend the next few weeks scouting every possible prospect. they hadnt done any scouting yet, supposedly.

Great due diligence there. I think that makes it 100% he gets traded though - you're going to pour money and time into an intensive two-and-a-half week scouting period not to do anything? If that happens... wow. Riccardi really gets more terrible by the minute it seems.

Don't overthink this.

He wants to win, plain and simple. If it was only about going somewhere he loved, he'd just stay in Toronto, he seems really happy there. He wants to win. If he comes to Philly, we make a deep run in the playoffs, and he's well received here (he will be, obviously), he'll sign an extension. He signed a below market value deal to stay in Toronto, I don't get the impression that he'd just go for the biggest paycheck. Hes not a mercenary.

Make the trade, continue to show a commitment to winning, and he'll sign a long term deal.

So the scenarios could be:

a) The Yankees take Halladay and Wells, then outright Wells, because it is only money.

b) The Phillies break the bank, give up some future to win now, and possibly secure their future reputation with, well everybody, as buyers, not sellers

c) The Phils take Rolen with Halladay and send Brunt to the great white north (really Dobbs). Rolen kills himself in the Rogers Centre locker room rather than consider returning to Philly for more then 4 days.

hearing Halladay's remarks the past couple days it not only sounds like he is willing to accept a trade but he would welcome it. In fact the quote I heard this morning on the radio almost sounded like he wanted out and liked the idea of going where he can win a championship. So it is no longer an issue of whether or not he will be traded, only where he will be traded.

I agree that nobody will take on the Wells contract and Ricciardi isn't in a position where he could get away with not getting maximum return for Halladay.

What are the Phillies options if they don't get Halladay? I have heard Haren's name mentioned but has Arizona said if he is definitely available or not?

Phils aren't taking either Wells or Rolen. My guess is only the Yankees could (or would). Frankly, the Yanks could use another OF (Wells), so the cost is the only issue. If that's the key for JP, the Yanks have the advantage. If the Angels are willing to part with Weaver (which I seriously doubt), the Angels have the advantage. Those are the X factors to me. Otherwise, I don't see anyone topping the Phils' package of prospects and I don't believe the crap that the Phils won't take on Halladay's salary for the rest of the year.

All that being said, I view the Yanks as serious competition because they could use an OF and have the money, if they really, really want to do it. If he can unload Wells' contract, I think JP will trade within the division.

scottdg wrote:hearing Halladay's remarks the past couple days it not only sounds like he is willing to accept a trade but he would welcome it. In fact the quote I heard this morning on the radio almost sounded like he wanted out and liked the idea of going where he can win a championship. So it is no longer an issue of whether or not he will be traded, only where he will be traded.

I agree that nobody will take on the Wells contract and Ricciardi isn't in a position where he could get away with not getting maximum return for Halladay.

What are the Phillies options if they don't get Halladay? I have heard Haren's name mentioned but has Arizona said if he is definitely available or not?

He doesn't want out. He'd never explicitly ask for a trade. Hes open to a deal because he respects Toronto and understands that its a business

BigB wrote: My guess is Ruben is low balling on purpose because he doesn't have enough scratch ($$$ this year) to get him.

That would be really ridiculous, especially because he could, you know, just not offer anything. And also, what if the Blue Jays were to say yes? Then what? I think this theory needs some work

thephan wrote:So the scenarios could be:

a) The Yankees take Halladay and Wells, then outright Wells, because it is only money.

b) The Phillies break the bank, give up some future to win now, and possibly secure their future reputation with, well everybody, as buyers, not sellers

c) The Phils take Rolen with Halladay and send Brunt to the great white north (really Dobbs). Rolen kills himself in the Rogers Centre locker room rather than consider returning to Philly for more then 4 days.

I actually would prefer the Phillies acquire Rolen and Halladay for lesser prospects (let's say Taylor/Carrasco/Savery? or some less important pitcher, I guess I'd go as high as Happ/Carrasco/Taylor in that circumsance), but that hasn't a snow ball's chance in hell of happening, so I long ago abandoned the idea. But switching Rolen for Bruntlett would be sweeeeeeet. Only thing is Scotty doesn't play short or second, so who you would have to cut is Dobbs, not Bruntlett, or reduce the staff to 11 pitchers, but with Pedro and Moyer in the rotation, I don't foresee that as a possibility.

Too bad, because a roster of...

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Ibanez/Werth
Werth/Ibanez
Feliz
Chooch

Rolen
Dobbs
Stairs
Mayberry
Bruntlett
Bako

Hamels
Halladay
Blanton
Martinez
Moyer

Lidge
Madson
Romero
Park
Eyre
Durbin/Condrey (whichever, I don't care)

...is pretty fuck-ing awesome.

JFLNYC wrote:Phils aren't taking either Wells or Rolen. My guess is only the Yankees could (or would). Frankly, the Yanks could use another OF (Wells), so the cost is the only issue. If that's the key for JP, the Yanks have the advantage. If the Angels are willing to part with Weaver (which I seriously doubt), the Angels have the advantage. Those are the X factors to me. Otherwise, I don't see anyone topping the Phils' package of prospects and I don't believe the crap that the Phils won't take on Halladay's salary for the rest of the year.

All that being said, I view the Yanks as serious competition because they could use an OF and have the money, if they really, really want to do it. If he can unload Wells' contract, I think JP will trade within the division.

Who says that Halladay would need to have his pay taken on by the Jays? Refugees? No one with a freaking brain. Halladay in red pinstripes makes King Cole the #2. I choke on that coming our of my mouth, but it is the truth. No offense to Cupcakes and I am just shooting from the hip, but he could be moved instead of Happ if the Jays were interested. Moyer becomes the number 4 or 5 because he is not movable.

I need to refocus and treat this like discussions about winning the lottery so that there is no disappointment.