mcare89 wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

FTN wrote:Myers is not a qualified A or B free agent and won't be.

Theres 0% chance he's offered arb

Really? Is that just based on the fact that he was injured in the year leading up to his walk year? Because I personally feel like he should be a type-A FA based on his career track record, but B at the least anyway.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/e ... kings.html

The guy just did the research on who's classified as what, and right now, Myers is the last guy on the list with type B classification, which will probably change by the end of the year.

Alright, I stand corrected on Myers. Learn something new every day.

BIGPHILLY wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:Prospects rarely live up to the hype except for when they do. I don't think there's any way anyone on this board can predict how good Drabek's going to be. He's the toast of the prospect town right now and after his surgeries, no one has any idea what his ceiling is. He might be as good as Halladay, and he could do it for the Phils for a much longer period of time than Halladay could. He'd also be doing it during the prime years of his career rather than in the decline of it.

* Or he could be Paul Wilson.

With respect, I'm guessing you're not familiar with why Paul Wilson turned out to be Paul Wilson.

Put it this way: so long as Kyle Drabek never does anything on the orders of Dallas Green, or ideally never even speaks with (maybe never even so much as meets) Dallas Green, the odds of his retracing Wilson's descent into baseball hell are much longer.

dajafi wrote:

BIGPHILLY wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:Prospects rarely live up to the hype except for when they do. I don't think there's any way anyone on this board can predict how good Drabek's going to be. He's the toast of the prospect town right now and after his surgeries, no one has any idea what his ceiling is. He might be as good as Halladay, and he could do it for the Phils for a much longer period of time than Halladay could. He'd also be doing it during the prime years of his career rather than in the decline of it.

* Or he could be Paul Wilson.

With respect, I'm guessing you're not familiar with why Paul Wilson turned out to be Paul Wilson.

Put it this way: so long as Kyle Drabek never does anything on the orders of Dallas Green, or ideally never even speaks with (maybe never even so much as meets) Dallas Green, the odds of his retracing Wilson's descent into baseball hell are much longer.

* Whether his story is an outlier or not - the prospect of Drabek falling off the map is entirely conceivable. He may be great - but I'd prefer to take the proven great. Irregardless of all the other variables related to years of service, age etc.

Anyway....

I still think you need to consider Drabek as a potential Hamels, and look at the trade in that respect. I think that's why the Phillies will probably push to include a Knapp vs a Drabek.

All this depends on what other teams are offering, and whether Ricciardi has painted himself into a corner. We may not need to offer as much as we think.

I wish Halladay were one or two years younger. Not that he's "old" now but that would make my decision much easier.

Ok, here's the big picture, in bulleted points

* Our farm system right now is as strong as it has been in, well, ever. We have 3 tier 1 prospects, ie, top 25 in all of baseball, in Taylor, Drabek and Brown. We have at least 4 guys in tier 2, ie, in the 50-125 range, in Knapp, Carrasco, Marson and Donald. We have significant depth in tier 3, ie, guys who are further down, but have the potential to jump up in a big way over the next 1-2 years. We've never had this kind of farm system depth, and that's without really even adding anything yet via the 2009 draft.

* The ML team is coming off a World Series, is first in the division, but is in the strongest division in the NL. The Dodgers are arguably the best team in the NL, but they have flaws, and we mowed them down last year in October. The path to the World Series this year isn't smooth sailing, but we're looking at potholes, not the grand canyon.

* We still have the best offense in the NL, and our pitching staff has some of the worst numbers in the league. Some of that could easily turn around (Hamels, Lidge), but you have to be concerned to some degree about Jamie Moyer, Happ's peripherals don't support his ERA, and who knows what we get from Pedro.

* In a short series, Hamels + Halladay gives us a strangehold on things. In a 7 game series, you can still get 4-5 starts from that pair, you'll need a 3 and 4, but you can certainly live with Blanton and either Pedro or Moyer to start one game each.

* We shed a bunch of payroll next year; Eaton ($8.5), Jenkins ($6.75), Myers ($12.0), Park ($2.5), Eyre ($2), Durbin ($1.63), Stairs ($1)

That's $34.38M. But we also then have to replace Park, Eyre, Durbin and Stairs on the roster. Eaton and Jenkins are sunk costs, Myers is done and if he comes back, it will be on a much cheaper deal.

* Then you have to look at increases in cost

Howard: +$4M
Utley: +$4M
Ibanez: +$5M
Hamels: +$2.3M
Werth: +$5M
Madson: +$2.5M
Dobbs: +$200K

Total: $19M

Arbitration raises

Blanton: $5.48 > ??
Victorino: $3.13 > ??
Bruntlett: $800K > ??
Ruiz: $475K > ??

All told, we're probably looking at $23M or so in raises for players on the roster now heading into next year.

Factor in the $34M in savings, and we're at a net of $11M. That doesn't cover Halladay's salary next year, at $15.75. And we'd still have a bunch of roster spots to fill.

Financially, it may be tough to make this work. Of course, if you get Moyer to retire, you save $6.5M there. That helps.

* Everyone talks about the core of the team having a short window

Rollins, 30 (signed through 2010, option for 2011)
Howard, 29 (signed through 2011)
Utley, 30 (signed through 2013)
Ibanez, 37 (signed through 2011)
Victorino, 28 (controlled through 2011)
Werth, 30 (signed through 2010)
Ruiz, 30 (controlled through 2012)

Blanton, 28 (controlled through 2010)
Hamels, 25 (signed through 2011, plus 1 arb)
Happ, 26 (controlled through 2014?)
Lidge, 32 (signed through 2011, option for 2012)

Our "window" theoretically closes in 2011. The entire core sans Werth and Blanton are signed through 2011. That means this season, next season, and the year after.

* Looking at this, you have to figure out the reasonable ETA of our Tier 1 and Tier 2 prospects

Drabek = 2010
Taylor = 2010
Brown = 2011/2012
Carrasco = 2010
Knapp = 2012/2013
Marson = 2010
Donald = 2010

Most of these guys are big league ready or will be in the next 12 months. Brown and Knapp, from this list, are the guys who will take longer to get here. These are the guys we should hang onto. Then consider guys in the third tier

Collier = 2013
Hewitt = 2013/2014
Shreve = 2012/2013
May = 2012/2013
D'Arnaud = 2012/2013
Pettibone = 2012/2013
Santana = 2013/2014
Worley = 2011

This is the next crop. Also add in guys like Colvin, Stewart, Susac (if they sign), plus the guys we draft in 2010, plus the guys who may seem like fringe guys now, but who are only 18/19.

* If you trade away Taylor now, while his value is peaking, in 2011 there is a decent chance Dominic Brown is ready to play every day, should they decide to not bring back Werth.

* Drabek could have a rotation spot next year, or he could struggle while dealing with the huge innings spike in his workload.

* The prospects to absolutely trade right now are Marson, Donald, and Carrasco. These are the guys for whom you can extract short-moderate term value from before their value drops. karn made the point with regard to Taylor, and it certainly applies to Donald and Carrasco, Donald especially. Hes not a 21 year old guy biding his time. Carrasco has seemingly been knocking on the door for a while, but has lots of question marks. Marson has a bit more time, but if you've been following this team, you know that as long as Manuel is the manager, Ruiz will be the starting catcher, so you're basically wasting Marson's value, and you run the risk of his implied value dropping as well.

* If we trade everyone in the top 2 tiers except Brown, I still think this farm system is good enough to be ready to fill in around the edges in 2012. If we lose Utley, Rollins, Howard, and Victorino all at the same time, its unlikely we'd win anything, even with a great farm system.

* Halladay will be 33 next year, and he's going to command a deal similar to what AJ Burnett got, which was 5/$82.5. That's a lot of money, but he is one of the 5-6 best pitchers in baseball, and with his profile and approach on the mound, I don't see a fast decline. He's suited perfectly for CBP

* Signing Halladay for 5 years, starting in 2011, would lock him up during a period where we might struggle if a big chunk of the core goes away. But the Phillies are not a small market team, they won't lose all of that production without replacing it to some degree. And Halladay will have trade value, should we have to go down that road.

Wow. Incredibly comprehensive post there. Thanks for that.

mozartpc27 wrote:

GrizzledVeteran wrote:Drabek and Knapp? Yikes.

Knapp is 19. Anything could happen between now and when he is ready. Drabek has already had one arm surgery. I'm not talking about trading these people for Aaron Harang or Jason Marquis. Roy Halladay people. You have to expect it to cost. Players closer to the bigs are more valuable to a team trying to win now and in the next few years by acquiring a guy like Halladay. I would lose no sleep over Drabek & Knapp for Halladay if it means I am keeping Happ, Taylor, and Brown. That's a coup d'etat for the Phillies.

the one aspect i think you might miss in light of knapp being 19, is his value at 19. from reading some reports on him, it appears that scouts think highly of him, so you just can't say, "well he's 19, he goes". if i had to venture a guess, i would say he ranks from 2-4 on the evaluations other teams do for the phillies. if the jays are one of those teams that have him #2, you don't want to start throwing out your top 3-4 prospects to make deal.

i love taylor as well. i've been preaching about him since i first saw him this season. he's absolutely the total package in my opinion. but, karn is right, there isn't going to be any room for him. if it were me, i'd let victorino's value climb, trade him for a starter this offseason and plug taylor in right. even with this being a new regime, in reality, the phillies aren't a team that will take this approach. they'll fear the pr hit they would take and i understand that. if they're coming off back to back wfc, or a wfc and a pennant, then it doesn't make sense to break something that isn't broken. if that's the case, then taylor is expendable.

then it's up to rube to be a better general manager than ricciardi. if they really liked d'arnaud, i'd add him to the deal immediately. i'd put happ in the deal plus carrasco and donald. let them sit on that. keep reminding them of the twins haul for johan. this might not be far off.

happ/taylor/carrasco/donald/d'arnaud for halladay. if they can keep drabek/brown/knapp, it's a coup.

Yohan Flande was trade to Clubbies?

karn wrote:Yohan Flande was trade to Clubbies?

Big break for you, as a Cubs fan, karn.

deal was nixed when they found out Flande is really 37

I am a Clubs fan! Go go Aramis and Derrek Lee (a/k/a D-LEE)

Bucky wrote:

Fergie is Canadian. His mother was blind and never saw him play. She kept a scrap book though.

(Oh yeah, I need to attribute this -- Byrum Saam said it sometime in the 70s).

FTN wrote:And Halladay will have trade value, should we have to go down that road.

Well that's a key point isn't it? If things crater after 2011, Halladay will still be young enough (34/35) to fetch some prospects to replace the ones we traded for him. It's simply a matter of converting some unripe assets into a ripe asset. Unless you think Halladay is going to be doodoo in 2-3 years, you can re-convert that ripe asset into other unripe assets when necessary.

Don't we also finally shed Thome's payments?

FTN wrote:All told, we're probably looking at $23M or so in raises for players on the roster now heading into next year.

Factor in the $34M in savings, and we're at a net of $11M. That doesn't cover Halladay's salary next year, at $15.75. And we'd still have a bunch of roster spots to fill.

Financially, it may be tough to make this work. Of course, if you get Moyer to retire, you save $6.5M there. That helps.

I think they could probably get away with a pretty big ticket price increase next year.

Here's a question --

If the choice is giving up Drabek or JA what do you do?

From what I'm reading here most would say, "no brainer, keep Drabek his upside is huge..." BUT if he's not going to pitch this year for whatever reason (assume he isn't ready) then don't we need JA AND Roy to make it to WFC?

To use Floppies rating of top tier, 2nd tier ... and if you buy the whole "who will be ready in 11 or 12" -- then do you offer JA and Taylor and Donald or Carrasco?

Somehow I don't see them going for Marson, Donald, Carrasco and another tier 2, I don't even see them going for Taylor, Donald, Carrasco and Marson. Not enough pitching back. For Roy they may want 3 arms and a bat?

JA, Carrasco and Taylor might get it done, then Drabek and Brown are still here?! That feels about right, I just don't want to give up JA when Moyer is so bad, Chan ho didn't work out, Myers is out ... this Pedro thing may or may not happen and may or may not work if it does happen...

I'm really torn... I guess I too want to hold Drabek if we can -- even though JA seems to be effective right now, a lot more effective than others despite whether his peripherals support him or not.

ek wrote:gammons just said he doesn't think anyone in the NL west can afford him

the team that poses the biggest threat to this deal getting done is the Angels.

I dont buy the Cardinals as being serious suitors because I dont think they have what it takes, personnel wise, to do the deal