Halladay is on the block, fyi

by **The Red Tornado** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:27:06

mozartpc27 wrote:, collect a draft pick for Myers, and all is good.

color me surprised if Myers is offered arb

by **smitty** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:28:17

Woody wrote:FUN FACT: Kyle Drabek's dad is only four months older than Jamie Moyer

p.s. look at this windup

I think that is known as the "collapsing N" or less commonly the "taking a dump" motion. His arm fell off shortly after this photo was taken.

by **milton bernard thompson** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:29:22

mozartpc27 wrote:Position players, since they play every day, are worth more than pitchers, regardless of other questions, in my mind.

i don't know about this. to simplify matters without getting into other considerations, if a starting pitcher faces ~30 batters once every 5 games, does this make his contribution any less important and/or valuable than the batter who gets ~25 plate appearances spread out evenly over the course of those 5 games?

by **cshort** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:29:22

FTN wrote:then you plug Taylor in.

And what if he stumbles?

Then what.

Pick up a corner outfielder somewhere. The Phils have been pretty successful in doing that lately.

by **Woody** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:29:24

If the picture were reversed, you'd almost be able to see young Kyle swimming around in his daddy's nads through those pants

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:30:10

The Red Tornado wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:, collect a draft pick for Myers, and all is good.

color me surprised if Myers is offered arb

You have to offer him arb. Worst case scenario, he takes it, so then you trade Blanton to someone in dire need of pitching while the Phillies have a rotation of Halladay-Hamels-Myers-Happ-Moyer, at worst. At worst.

by **ashton** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:31:42

mozartpc27 wrote:First offer: Carrasco, Knapp, Donald, Savery

When that is rejected: Carrasco, Drabek, Donald, Savery

When that too is rejected: Drabek, Savery, Donald, D'Arnaud

Would the phillies rather give up Carrasco than D'Arnaud?

by **cshort** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:31:51

mozartpc27 wrote:
The Red Tornado wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:, collect a draft pick for Myers, and all is good.

color me surprised if Myers is offered arb

You have to offer him arb. Worst case scenario, he takes it, so then you trade Blanton to someone in dire need of pitching while the Phillies have a rotation of Halladay-Hamels-Myers-Happ-Moyer, at worst. At worst.

Don't forget the $4-5 million club option on Pedro next year :-D

by **The Red Tornado** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:32:13

mozartpc27 wrote:
The Red Tornado wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:, collect a draft pick for Myers, and all is good.

color me surprised if Myers is offered arb

You have to offer him arb. Worst case scenario, he takes it, so then you trade Blanton to someone in dire need of pitching while the Phillies have a rotation of Halladay-Hamels-Myers-Happ-Moyer, at worst. At worst.

You really think that the Phillies want to risk paying Myers more than 12 million? I dont think he gets that much else where either.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:33:53

ashton wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:First offer: Carrasco, Knapp, Donald, Savery

When that is rejected: Carrasco, Drabek, Donald, Savery

When that too is rejected: Drabek, Savery, Donald, D'Arnaud

Would the phillies rather give up Carrasco than D'Arnaud?

If I were them, I would. But that's me. Keeping Carrasco is my hedge against giving up Drabek and Knapp. I have my doubts about Carrasco, but he is still supposed to have the best raw stuff in the system, and he is at AAA. If he finds his control, he can contribute right away with the Phillies at the ML level.

by **FTN** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:35:04

Myers is not a qualified A or B free agent and won't be.

Theres 0% chance he's offered arb

by **The Red Tornado** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:35:21

plus Myers may not even get a B status and has no chance for A status, it isnt worth the risk

EDIT-Flop beat me to it

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:36:47

The Red Tornado wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:
The Red Tornado wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:, collect a draft pick for Myers, and all is good.

color me surprised if Myers is offered arb

You have to offer him arb. Worst case scenario, he takes it, so then you trade Blanton to someone in dire need of pitching while the Phillies have a rotation of Halladay-Hamels-Myers-Happ-Moyer, at worst. At worst.

You really think that the Phillies want to risk paying Myers more than 12 million? I dont think he gets that much else where either.

After trading a bunch of good prospects to get Halladay, the Phillies will need to restock the farm system. You do that by offering Myers arb. If he doesn't accept (which I don't think he will, he'll want a multi-year deal, which he should be able to get), you get an extra draft pick; if he does, you trade Blanton for a prospect, and it's like getting an extra draft pick.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:38:19

FTN wrote:Myers is not a qualified A or B free agent and won't be.

Theres 0% chance he's offered arb

Really? Is that just based on the fact that he was injured in the year leading up to his walk year? Because I personally feel like he should be a type-A FA based on his career track record, but B at the least anyway.

by **dajafi** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:40:01

mozartpc27 wrote:
FTN wrote:Myers is not a qualified A or B free agent and won't be.

Theres 0% chance he's offered arb

Really? Is that just based on the fact that he was injured in the year leading up to his walk year? Because I personally feel like he should be a type-A FA based on his career track record, but B at the least anyway.

Career track record doesn't enter into how Elias ranks them.

by **The Red Tornado** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:40:06

mozartpc27 wrote:
The Red Tornado wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:
The Red Tornado wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:, collect a draft pick for Myers, and all is good.

color me surprised if Myers is offered arb

You have to offer him arb. Worst case scenario, he takes it, so then you trade Blanton to someone in dire need of pitching while the Phillies have a rotation of Halladay-Hamels-Myers-Happ-Moyer, at worst. At worst.

You really think that the Phillies want to risk paying Myers more than 12 million? I dont think he gets that much else where either.

After trading a bunch of good prospects to get Halladay, the Phillies will need to restock the farm system. You do that by offering Myers arb. If he doesn't accept (which I don't think he will, he'll want a multi-year deal, which he should be able to get), you get an extra draft pick; if he does, you trade Blanton for a prospect, and it's like getting an extra draft pick.

even if you were to get a pick by offering arb (which isnt happening, see above), it would be dumb to offer him arb because chances are he would accept the offer in a heartbeat by getting >12 million after being out most of the season. He'll be lucky to get a one year deal somewhere else in the range of 6-8 million.

by **mcare89** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:40:48

mozartpc27 wrote:
FTN wrote:Myers is not a qualified A or B free agent and won't be.

Theres 0% chance he's offered arb

Really? Is that just based on the fact that he was injured in the year leading up to his walk year? Because I personally feel like he should be a type-A FA based on his career track record, but B at the least anyway.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/e ... kings.html

The guy just did the research on who's classified as what, and right now, Myers is the last guy on the list with type B classification, which will probably change by the end of the year.

by **FTN** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:40:54

mozartpc27 wrote:
FTN wrote:Myers is not a qualified A or B free agent and won't be.

Theres 0% chance he's offered arb

Really? Is that just based on the fact that he was injured in the year leading up to his walk year? Because I personally feel like he should be a type-A FA based on his career track record, but B at the least anyway.

viewtopic.php_t=8865

by **BIGPHILLY** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:43:26

Barry Jive wrote:Prospects rarely live up to the hype except for when they do. I don't think there's any way anyone on this board can predict how good Drabek's going to be. He's the toast of the prospect town right now and after his surgeries, no one has any idea what his ceiling is. He might be as good as Halladay, and he could do it for the Phils for a much longer period of time than Halladay could. He'd also be doing it during the prime years of his career rather than in the decline of it.

* Or he could be Paul Wilson.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 15:47:24

FTN wrote:But when it comes to trading prospects, you shouldn't be predetermined to trade pitchers just because they get hurt. Position players flame out and get hurt too.

Well, again, this really is more context-dependent than I initially made it sound. I doubt a deal for Halladay can be done without Drabek, and I would not lose one night's sleep for using Drabek to get Halladay. But that's just me.

So why include Knapp over Taylor? This whole strategy is meant to make the Phillies one of the two or three clear favorites for the WS this year and next, and keep them in contention for two more years after that (assuming we trade for Halladay with the intent of resigning him). To plug holes that come along, the Phillies will need players who can do what Victorino and Werth are doing for them right now: contribute substantially without costing too much, so that the Phillies can spend some to complete their roster. Taylor looks like he'll be ready to do that as early as next year. Brown is perhaps 2 years away. Jason Knapp looks great, but I have to think he's probably at least two and more likely three full seasons in the minors away from making his ML debut. And then, if he is anything like most pitchers, his real peak will come starting not at age 25 or 26, but 27 or 28. So he's not likely to be a difference maker for a Phillies team constructed to win as many consecutive WFC beginning right now as they can.

That's the motivator here. Carrasco, hang on to, because his trade value is suppressed somewhat thanks to the poor year he's been having, and if he can put it together he can be contributing very soon. Taylor shold be in the majors next season here or somewhere. Brown will probably debut in 2011. Knapp is the furthest away from making real contributions, and for the purposes of this particular move (for Halladay), he is therefore the most expendable of the valuable pieces left.

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Halladay is on the block, fyi