Halladay is on the block, fyi

Postby LongDrive » Sat Jul 11, 2009 18:45:50

Keith Law tweets that a Roy Halladay trade was unlikely two days ago, but seems even less likely now after some conversations.



saw this on MLBtraderumors.com

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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 11, 2009 19:17:47

Yeah, at this point, I vote for not even bothering.

We should still win the division. But we're not winning the World Series this year with this roster.

Just pack it in and hope we can fix this team heading into 2010

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Postby phillychuck » Sat Jul 11, 2009 21:38:19

FTN wrote:Yeah, at this point, I vote for not even bothering.

We should still win the division. But we're not winning the World Series this year with this roster.

Just pack it in and hope we can fix this team heading into 2010


Any team that makes the playoffs can go on a run and win the series if there isn't another really dominant team in the tournament. I think the Red Sox and Dodgers are good, but we could beat either team if Cole returns to form and either Blanton or Happ is hot. Or Drabek could pull a Marty Bystrom.

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Postby FTN » Sat Jul 11, 2009 21:44:47

Drabek's usage this year actually kind of makes me more open to trading him. Because his value (in terms of a trade) is peaking right now, and will surely go down next year when he suffers from the major innings increase. Theres no way hes coming up to the majors unless every other pitching prospect above A ball gets hurt at the same time

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Postby CFP » Sat Jul 11, 2009 22:51:28

I think if you can get Halladay, you go:

4 year deal, $74 MM:

2011: $21MM
2012: $20MM
2013: $18 MM
2014: $15 MM

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Postby phatj » Sun Jul 12, 2009 09:18:37

There's a reason teams never front-load contracts. Bad economics.
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Postby danrosz » Sun Jul 12, 2009 09:58:56

FTN wrote:Yeah, at this point, I vote for not even bothering.

We should still win the division. But we're not winning the World Series this year with this roster.

Just pack it in and hope we can fix this team heading into 2010


I know you're fucking around, but wasn't everyone saying the same thing last season about our roster not being good enough? I just have some serious hesitations about selling the farm for one guy. I don't want to watch a 75 win team in five years. I know trading for Halladay doesn't mean that will happen as long as they restock the system, but there's a greater chance that it does if we make this trade. Put me down for trading for a Blanton type. I'd say all-in for Halladay if we hadn't won the World Series last year, but that changes everything in my mind. We're going to win the division without Halladay.

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Postby allentown » Sun Jul 12, 2009 11:18:48

danrosz wrote:
FTN wrote:Yeah, at this point, I vote for not even bothering.

We should still win the division. But we're not winning the World Series this year with this roster.

Just pack it in and hope we can fix this team heading into 2010


I know you're $#@! around, but wasn't everyone saying the same thing last season about our roster not being good enough? I just have some serious hesitations about selling the farm for one guy. I don't want to watch a 75 win team in five years. I know trading for Halladay doesn't mean that will happen as long as they restock the system, but there's a greater chance that it does if we make this trade. Put me down for trading for a Blanton type. I'd say all-in for Halladay if we hadn't won the World Series last year, but that changes everything in my mind. We're going to win the division without Halladay.

Yes, we won it all last year with a team that didn't seem good enough and with a middle-of-the-road deadline starter in Blanton. The post-season goes to the hot team, not necessarily the best team. We can quite easily add Halladay and get no farther through the playoffs than we do without him. We can go into the playoffs as the strongest team on paper of the last decade (which clearly we're not with or without Halladay) and lose in the first round if the playoffs catch us in cold mode.
We now know that Amaro really is running the Phillies. He and Monty seem to have ignored the committee.
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Postby Wolfgang622 » Sun Jul 12, 2009 13:09:21

dajafi wrote:For me, if I can keep Drabek and one of the two OFs, I almost don't care who else Ricciardi wants. But I probably can't.


This is totally right. I'd give him anything else he wanted in prospect terms pretty much if I were keeping Drabek and Brown or Taylor. Wish it could be so, but probably can't be.

The funny thing is, I think that Riccardi has really screwed the pooch on this. Now that he's made it known he'll deal Halladay and everyone is waiting for Halladay to be traded, including Halladay himself, the price for Halladay will only go down, not up, as the trading deadline approaches, because he's going to look like a real horse's ass if he isn't traded now but then is, for much less, over the winter.
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Postby Wolfgang622 » Sun Jul 12, 2009 13:17:44

phatj wrote:There's a reason teams never front-load contracts. Bad economics.


How do you figure? Any individual player's "deservingness" of a big money deal is likely to be when he's younger, not older. Frontloading the money allows a player whose production might be sliding to be less of a financial burden in the latter years of a contract; it positions the team to add a piece down the line if they don't have enough; and it's better for the player in the classical economic sense that x number of dollars todays is worth more than the same number of dollars five years from now. A frontloaded contract is, in my mind, the very definition of a win-win.
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Postby dajafi » Sun Jul 12, 2009 13:23:38

mozartpc27 wrote:
dajafi wrote:For me, if I can keep Drabek and one of the two OFs, I almost don't care who else Ricciardi wants. But I probably can't.


This is totally right. I'd give him anything else he wanted in prospect terms pretty much if I were keeping Drabek and Brown or Taylor. Wish it could be so, but probably can't be.

The funny thing is, I think that Riccardi has really screwed the pooch on this. Now that he's made it known he'll deal Halladay and everyone is waiting for Halladay to be traded, including Halladay himself, the price for Halladay will only go down, not up, as the trading deadline approaches, because he's going to look like a real horse's ass if he isn't traded now but then is, for much less, over the winter.


I can't get my head around how Ricciardi is even allowed to make this trade. I guess if somehow he does manage to strip-mine the Phillies (or Red Sox, or Angels) system, landing 3-4 top 100 prospects for Halladay, *maybe* he keeps his job. Seems like a longshot, though. If you look at the superstar-for-prospects deadline deals of the last few years, there seem to be more instances where the team trading the star gets one flawed-but-good guy and fill-ins (Sabathia for LaPorta et al) or worse (the Braves trading Tex for Kotchman and junk) than where they get a huge haul (Texas dealing Tex to the Braves a year earlier).

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Postby FTN » Sun Jul 12, 2009 16:12:13

Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi admitted this past week that he would listen to offers for ace pitcher Roy Halladay, who can become a free agent after the 2010 season. While Ricciardi later downplayed the idea of pulling the trigger on a deal, finances will likely dictate a trade.

The Blue Jays have an $80 million payroll this season, and already have committed more than $81 million to seven players in 2010, including $15.75 million to Halladay, who tops a list that includes third baseman Scott Rolen, first baseman Lyle Overbay, right fielder Alex Rios, center fielder Vernon Wells, left-handed reliever Scott Downs, and second baseman Aaron Hill. Furthermore, the Jays ate the roughly $15 million remaining on left-handed reliever B.J. Ryan’s five-year, $47 million contract when they released him on Wednesday. Wells and Rios are both signed through 2014; Wells is owed $107 million unless he opts out after 2011, which is doubtful. Rios has $67.7 million coming to him along with a $13.5 million club option for 2015.

Halladay would at the very least command a contract similar to the five-year, $82.5 million deal that right-hander A.J. Burnett got from the Yankees last winter to leave the Blue Jays as a free agent. With that in mind, it seems nearly impossible that the Blue Jays can keep Halladay beyond next season.

"I don’t think anything has changed. I just think, you know what, why not listen? The worst we can say is no," Ricciardi said. "If someone wants Roy and they’re willing to blow us away, we’d be willing to listen, that’s all I’m saying. That doesn’t mean we’d trade him. That doesn’t mean we’re looking to trade him. All it means is we’d be willing to listen."

Ricciardi said he would drive a hard bargain, though: "It would take a lot for us to part with him. We’ve gotten a lot of calls from teams, but none of them are telling us at this point what they’re willing to give up. If you’re coming at us with a B-list of young players, don’t bother. This is one of the five best players in baseball. It’s going to take a significant package of players for us to even listen. As the teams call, we’ll go through the ones we feel are the serious ones and then we’ll start scouting their farm systems to see if there’s anything we can do."

Halladay said he has not asked for a trade and didn’t anticipate pushing for one in the future unless the Blue Jays go into total rebuild mode. "Whether or not our organization and my goals line up, it’s (not) always going to be that way," Halladay said. "Sometimes teams have to take a step back, and I understand that."


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... cleid=9220

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Postby WilliamC » Sun Jul 12, 2009 16:22:56

Keith law is FOS if he thinks Halladay isn't getting traded. It's going to happen. Might not be to the Phillies but it will happen.
Do it again!

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Postby FTN » Sun Jul 12, 2009 17:12:02

3:43 p.m. ET
Even as scouts and development people gathered at Busch Stadium for the Futures Game, everyone had an opinion about the Roy Halladay sweepstakes.

A National League front-office executive gauged the likelihood of the Blue Jays trading Halladay by July 31 at "30 percent.'' The process has become so public and Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi has set the bar so high, it remains to be seen if he can land a package of talent that he deems satisfactory.
Philadelphia might be the most motivated suitor, but unlike some other teams mentioned in speculation, the Phillies lack a young major league "sure thing'' to serve as the centerpiece of a Halladay deal. Although the Phillies have high regard for pitcher J.A. Happ, he doesn't fit that description.
"He's pretty good,'' said an NL scout. "But from the way everybody in Philly talks, you'd think he was the second coming of Steve Carlton.''
St. Louis outfielder Colby Rasmus is the type of player who does fit the description, but Cardinals GM John Mozeliak would have to swallow awfully hard before including him in any kind of trade.
Some front-office people think it's just as likely Ricciardi will move Halladay during the offseason. The Blue Jays are doing so much legwork now, with Tony LaCava and their other scouts collecting information about other teams' farm systems, they'll have a significant head start if Halladay is still in trade purgatory this winter.
--Jerry Crasnick


- ESPN

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Postby VFB » Sun Jul 12, 2009 17:17:23

rasmus > carlton > happ

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Postby WilliamC » Sun Jul 12, 2009 17:20:42

Why is Rasmus more of a sure thing than Michael Taylor? Because he's had 267 ML at bats? He is younger but in triple A he put up a whopping 742 OPS in 331 at bats.

I know he is going to be good but does he project to be a star or something?
Do it again!

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Postby kruker » Sun Jul 12, 2009 17:31:20

WilliamC wrote:Why is Rasmus more of a sure thing than Michael Taylor? Because he's had 267 ML at bats? He is younger but in triple A he put up a whopping 742 OPS in 331 at bats.

I know he is going to be good but does he project to be a star or something?


He was hurt most of last season and didn't play much after July. Add that to his usual slow start and that's why his numbers weren't eye popping.

Good defensive center fielder with 30 HR pop. Depends on how his plate discipline progresses, he's above average with a .350 OBP and that seems like a lock with him. Should be a 20 SB guy and might have a 30/30 season in him.

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Postby LongDrive » Sun Jul 12, 2009 18:02:13

The Jays will have two scouts watching Clay Buchholz pitch today. Don't read too much into it. The Jays appear to just be doing their homework.




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Postby FTN » Sun Jul 12, 2009 18:22:40

Sox will trade Penny for a blue chip prospect, Buchholz and junk for Halladay and wont lose another game this decade

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Postby Phan In Phlorida » Sun Jul 12, 2009 18:29:36

Looks like Halliday won't be a Phillies because Ricciardi's just being a tease.
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