FTN wrote:Sox will trade Penny for a blue chip prospect, Buchholz and junk for Halladay and wont lose another game this decade

And JP wins because he helps out his hometown team.

mozartpc27 wrote:

phatj wrote:There's a reason teams never front-load contracts. Bad economics.

How do you figure? Any individual player's "deservingness" of a big money deal is likely to be when he's younger, not older. Frontloading the money allows a player whose production might be sliding to be less of a financial burden in the latter years of a contract; it positions the team to add a piece down the line if they don't have enough; and it's better for the player in the classical economic sense that x number of dollars todays is worth more than the same number of dollars five years from now. A frontloaded contract is, in my mind, the very definition of a win-win.

And that's why teams don't do it. A front-loaded contract costs the team more in the long term than the same dollars and years back-loaded.

If you offer a long-term contract to an older player who might be on the downside of his career, you're playing with fire, front-loaded or not.

phatj wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

phatj wrote:There's a reason teams never front-load contracts. Bad economics.

How do you figure? Any individual player's "deservingness" of a big money deal is likely to be when he's younger, not older. Frontloading the money allows a player whose production might be sliding to be less of a financial burden in the latter years of a contract; it positions the team to add a piece down the line if they don't have enough; and it's better for the player in the classical economic sense that x number of dollars todays is worth more than the same number of dollars five years from now. A frontloaded contract is, in my mind, the very definition of a win-win.

And that's why teams don't do it. A front-loaded contract costs the team more in the long term than the same dollars and years back-loaded.

If you offer a long-term contract to an older player who might be on the downside of his career, you're playing with fire, front-loaded or not.

It's true that the team would rather pay the same nominal amount of money later because the present value of that amount would be lower the later they pay it out (because they would rather keep the money in the bank and get the interest first). But keep in mind that they would need to pay the player more salary because the player themselves prefers the money sooner as well.

Ultimately, it comes down to who has a relatively higher value on money now and who does later. As players are earning their lifetime income early and spreading it out, they'd prefer a little more money later than money now with interest. Teams probably don't have the same indifference towards some money now versus a little more money later, so that's probably why.

In general, deals will be back-loaded if the payee has less use for having the money sooner relative to the payer and deals will be front-loaded if the payee has more use for having the money sooner relative to the payer.

interesting points, but can you explain why money would be more valuable later than now to a player?

Eskin says less than 20% chance it happens because they won't give up Drabek...

he looks like a werewolf game show host

Eskin: "When's the last time the Phils made a huge trade?"

Blanton?
Lidge?

BigEd76 wrote:Eskin: "When's the last time the Phils made a huge trade?"

Blanton?
Lidge?

This is a different era of the Phillies.

BigEd76 wrote:Eskin says less than 20% chance it happens because they won't give up Drabek...

He also said last week he doubted Steve McNair's death mas murder-suicide because 20 year old girls don't usually kill themselves.

WilliamC wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:Eskin: "When's the last time the Phils made a huge trade?"

Blanton?
Lidge?

This is a different era of the Phillies.

That's two different definitions of the word "huge"

(rim shot)

BigEd76 wrote:Eskin: "When's the last time the Phils made a huge trade?"

Blanton?
Lidge?

It's hysterical, the media in this town is so stuck in their ways that they can't realize this is a different Phillies management style than the teams of the past.

Missanelli was the same way today on the postgame show, saying that he knew that the Phillies wouldn't get both Pedro and Halladay in the same dismissive way that we said things pre-WFC.

It's kinda weird that the fans are more optimistic than ever before, and the media is possibly even more pessimistic than ever before.

When's the last time Eskin even saw a baseball game?

Superstar For Sale

1. Halladay, Blue Jays starter. He may not get dealt, as Jays people are concerned about strong fan backlash in Toronto. But the guess here is that he still probably will. He's the close-to-consensus best pitcher in the game (though Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke have their fans, too).

- Heyman

No Drabek. Let them pick either Brown/Taylor, Donald, then give them their pick of the other two throughout the system. I really highly doubt they are going with an Knapp since he is so far away and the image really would be damaged for them.

I think I'd take Happ off the board for now but he probably will have to be sent.

WilliamC wrote:No Drabek. Let them pick either Brown/Taylor, Donald, then give them their pick of the other two throughout the system. I really highly doubt they are going with an Knapp since he is so far away and the image really would be damaged for them.

I think I'd take Happ off the board for now but he probably will have to be sent.

I'd rather they trade Happ than Drabek, and I love Happ. I think Happ's ceiling is a #3 though, but Drabek, he's gonna be a stud.

The Futures Game just reinforced that notion for me.

mcare89 wrote:I'd rather they trade Happ than Drabek, and I love Happ.

+1
i love happ, but just saw his babip. yikes. sell high.

almost gotta sign (a healthy) pedro before they trade happ, though.
halladay-hamels-blanton isn't enough for the stretch run with moyer-carpenter as 4-5. especially with hamels struggling. and there's no one else on the farm ready to help. drabek/savery next year at earliest.

Happ has been great, but chance are his value will never be higher. Now is the time to trade him if it can help get you Halladay while retaining Drabek.

Problem is that there's no way Toronto views Happ and Drabek as remotely comparable. Happ is likely the 3rd piece in any trade whereas Drabek is the key. The best you could come up with is probably:

Taylor/Brown, Happ, Carrasco, Donald, Marson

I don't think I do that deal if I'm Toronto

Trent Steele wrote:The best you could come up with is probably:

Taylor/Brown, Happ, Carrasco, Donald, Marson

I don't think I do that deal if I'm Toronto

What about if your other options are not ideal either?

You & many others here know better than I: what are Toronto's significant competing options?

If there are too many, or they're too competitive (including "do nothing right now"), you're almost certainly right.

Trent Steele wrote:Happ has been great, but chance are his value will never be higher. Now is the time to trade him if it can help get you Halladay while retaining Drabek.

Problem is that there's no way Toronto views Happ and Drabek as remotely comparable. Happ is likely the 3rd piece in any trade whereas Drabek is the key. The best you could come up with is probably:

Taylor/Brown, Happ, Carrasco, Donald, Marson

I don't think I do that deal if I'm Toronto

i'm not so sure. it looks like a pretty good match to what they need. happ should be a productive big league starter this year and next, and is cheap (and lefthanded). if they eat a bunch of the wells contract and trade him, taylor might be just the guy to fill the outfield spot and provide most of the production they are paying for as soon as next year. carrasco still has plenty of youth and upside going for him and could be ready by next year. happ-carrasco together is a nice package of short and long term pitching help. marson and donald are already at the level of capable major league bench players and could still become legit starters.

it really looks to me like this would be better for the jays than standing pat, and there can't be >too< many better offers out there that don't come from jays division rivals.

mcare89 wrote:

WilliamC wrote:No Drabek. Let them pick either Brown/Taylor, Donald, then give them their pick of the other two throughout the system. I really highly doubt they are going with an Knapp since he is so far away and the image really would be damaged for them.

I think I'd take Happ off the board for now but he probably will have to be sent.

I'd rather they trade Happ than Drabek, and I love Happ. I think Happ's ceiling is a #3 though, but Drabek, he's gonna be a stud.

The Futures Game just reinforced that notion for me.

The 10 pitches he threw last night cemented it for ya? I am not saying that Drabek hasn't been awesome so far but you are talking about being able to (possibly) pick up one of the top two or three starters in baseball for a guy who has 140 professional innings and has already had TJ surgery. Plus one area where the Phillies finally seem to be deep is starting pitching prospects so it isn't as if trading Drabek empties the system of SPs.

All my comments might be a little bias though because I heart Doc.