I don't want to see Drabek OR Happ go either. But Carrasco, Brown/Taylor plus may not get it done.

Happ, Carrasco, Brown/Taylor plus may get it done.

So the question is:

Would you rather have Halladay this year and Drabek and Halladay in 2010 (with a chance to extend Halladay)

OR

No Halladay this year and Happ and Carrasco in 2010, with our top prospects intact

???

Point being that the only package Jays might bite on that does not include Drabek is Happ AND Carrasco.

I like Happ a lot and would rather see Phils get a Harang or someone to stabilize the rotation and hold onto the top 3 (Brown, Taylor, Drabek). But if you really want Halladay (and it's a strong argument to go for it), then two #2/#3/#4 types may have to go instead of a potential #1.

Agree with my thinking. Disagree?

I think there is little to no chance of acquiring Halladay without giving up Drabek

Woody wrote:I think there is little to no chance of acquiring Halladay without giving up Drabek

Bing!

Woody wrote:I think there is little to no chance of acquiring Halladay without giving up Drabek

I agree with this and if the Phils somehow trade for Doc without giving up Drabek they probably robbed the Jays blind (unless there is something else ridiculous going on).

The Red Tornado wrote:

Woody wrote:I think there is little to no chance of acquiring Halladay without giving up Drabek

Bing!

I think the question then becomes what pitchers are available without giving him up. That guy may not be Halladay but he might be good enough for another WFC. Any FA pitchers that may walk so we could then deal for Halladay in the off season if he isn't traded now?

Halladay is better than Drabek and probably everyone in our minors will ever be. TRADE

The question is, will Halladay be a better value for the next six years than Drabek will be? I'd hang onto Drabek here unless Halladay says he'd be interested in signing a three-year contract extension with the Phils, at the end of which they could trade him for prospects. I'm sure that'd be the hope anyway, but that would have to happen to make trading Drabek worth it.

I just Drabek doesn't blow out his elbow again between now and the trade deadline

Barry Jive wrote:The question is, will Halladay be a better value for the next six years than Drabek will be? .

Halladay can provide value in several ways. One would be to sign an extension and then you'd have to say "yes". How about having Halladay for 1.5 years and then two first round picks? Still might be a "yes".

stevemc wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:The question is, will Halladay be a better value for the next six years than Drabek will be? .

Halladay can provide value in several ways. One would be to sign an extension and then you'd have to say "yes". How about having Halladay for 1.5 years and then two first round picks? Still might be a "yes".

those two first round picks arent always guaranteed depending on who signs halladay and what other free agents they sign...

philliesr98 wrote:

stevemc wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:The question is, will Halladay be a better value for the next six years than Drabek will be? .

Halladay can provide value in several ways. One would be to sign an extension and then you'd have to say "yes". How about having Halladay for 1.5 years and then two first round picks? Still might be a "yes".

those two first round picks arent always guaranteed depending on who signs halladay and what other free agents they sign...

Unless he gets injured I seriously doubt it will matter who the other team also signs as Halladay is very likely to be in the top of the A list

BassGuiFloyd wrote:Halladay is better than Drabek and probably everyone in our minors will ever be. TRADE

* This is the obvious common sense line of thinking that so many disregard. Prospects rarely live up to the hype. You can get a CY Young type horse for a championship run - you do it.

Prospects rarely live up to the hype except for when they do. I don't think there's any way anyone on this board can predict how good Drabek's going to be. He's the toast of the prospect town right now and after his surgeries, no one has any idea what his ceiling is. He might be as good as Halladay, and he could do it for the Phils for a much longer period of time than Halladay could. He'd also be doing it during the prime years of his career rather than in the decline of it.

Any four minor leaguers other than Brown, Taylor, Drabek, and Marson is what I'd offer. If it doesn't get it done, fine. You don't win consistently by giving away good, cheap talent for a short stint of a veteran on the downside of his career. Haladay is a top-flight player, but what is 1.5 years of him at age 32/33 worth? Five prospects, two of whom are in the top 25 in all of baseball and the privilege of paying Haladay 20+ million seems wildly excessive to me.

The deal proposed above would dwarf the value of the Sabathia, Haren, and Schilling deals. We'd have to be nuts to do that. Honestly, I think in the real world we're bidding against ourselves.

BIGPHILLY wrote:

BassGuiFloyd wrote:Halladay is better than Drabek and probably everyone in our minors will ever be. TRADE

* This is the obvious common sense line of thinking that so many disregard. Prospects rarely live up to the hype. You can get a CY Young type horse for a championship run - you do it.

Halladay was once a prospect. As were Sabathia, Lee, Oswalt, etc. etc.

They often DO live up to the hype. You hope the Phils' talent evaluators have a better idea than we do as to whether Drabek, Taylor, Marson, Carrasco, etc. will be successes or failures in the bigs.

Personally, I think both Drabek (if he remains healthy) and Taylor are going to be good-to-great major leaguers. If they are, including even one of them is too much to pay for 1.5 years of Halladay. Good, cheap talent is the most valuable commodity in the big leagues, and you don't give it away for a rental, even if the rental is Roy Halladay.

It's unbelievable to me to hear someone say Halladay is on the downside of his career. Every single meaningful stat this year (ERA+, WHIP, K & BB #'s) is better than his career averages. This is a career with a Cy Young and 3 other top 5 voting finishes. Since when is 32 years old on the downside of a career?

The premise of any four minor leaguers that excludes Brown, Taylor & Drabek is laughable.

phillychuck wrote:Personally, I think both Drabek (if he remains healthy) and Taylor are going to be good-to-great major leaguers. If they are, including even one of them is too much to pay for 1.5 years of Halladay.

Not if that 1.5 years of Halladay is the difference between raising another flag and not doing so.

Overall I'm probably sympathetic to your side of this argument--my bright line is that we get to keep Drabek and one of Brown/Taylor, and Toronto can pick any three or four other guys (or maybe Happ and any two other prospects). If they don't take that deal, so be it: we try to get another pitcher trading lesser prospects, and at worst we're still loaded for the next two seasons.

But if Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor are to the 2015 Phillies as Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen were to the '97 team, and we haven't won any more titles in the meantime, I think we'd regret not making the trade in 2009.

phillychuck wrote:

BIGPHILLY wrote:

BassGuiFloyd wrote:Halladay is better than Drabek and probably everyone in our minors will ever be. TRADE

* This is the obvious common sense line of thinking that so many disregard. Prospects rarely live up to the hype. You can get a CY Young type horse for a championship run - you do it.

Halladay was once a prospect. As were Sabathia, Lee, Oswalt, etc. etc.

They often DO live up to the hype. You hope the Phils' talent evaluators have a better idea than we do as to whether Drabek, Taylor, Marson, Carrasco, etc. will be successes or failures in the bigs.

Personally, I think both Drabek (if he remains healthy) and Taylor are going to be good-to-great major leaguers. If they are, including even one of them is too much to pay for 1.5 years of Halladay. Good, cheap talent is the most valuable commodity in the big leagues, and you don't give it away for a rental, even if the rental is Roy Halladay.

How do prospects often live up to the hype? For every one that makes it, there are about 20 who don't........maybe more.

Here's something else to consider...............Michael Taylor is not going to play for the Phillies. He's basically ML ready now, and if not now certainly next year, and he's blocked by 3 guys who the organization loves. The first chance he'd have to play would be in 2012 when Ibanez' contract is up. Victorino and Werth are going nowhere.

The Red Tornado wrote:

philliesr98 wrote:

stevemc wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:The question is, will Halladay be a better value for the next six years than Drabek will be? .

Halladay can provide value in several ways. One would be to sign an extension and then you'd have to say "yes". How about having Halladay for 1.5 years and then two first round picks? Still might be a "yes".

those two first round picks arent always guaranteed depending on who signs halladay and what other free agents they sign...

Unless he gets injured I seriously doubt it will matter who the other team also signs as Halladay is very likely to be in the top of the A list

wait it doesnt go by who is on top of A list, it goes by order of A list agents signed I thought....