I wouldn't deal both Drabek and Knapp under any circumstances.

Here's one way to think about it: it's likely that at the least, you'll need either to give up two of our top three (Drabek, Taylor, Brown) or three of our top five (add Knapp, Carrasco), plus two from the #6-#15 category. For me, if I can keep Drabek and one of the two OFs, I almost don't care who else Ricciardi wants. But I probably can't.

How many folks are like me and have the nagging feeling that every Phillies prospect will either get hurt or stink once they reach the majors (or before) but any prospect we trade will go on to a Hall of Fame career?

Growing up listening to Byrum Saam and Bill Campbell and those guys talk about how great Roger Freed and Joe Lis and Billy Champion were going to me did that to me. Plus there is always Fergie Jenkins and Ryne Sandberg.

Actually, hardly any of the Phils traded away prospects in recent years amounted to much so far. And they've traded away a bunch of them. Gavin Floyd is doing OK. Who else? Outman looked good before the TJ. Gio and Cardenas might be good someday. But a bunch of them haven't done anything and we've gotten some pretty good players from dealing prospects.

But now we're in the big boy territory. We're talking about the best pitcher in baseball (or pretty close to it) and some of the top prospects in all of baseball. This ain't Matt Maloney for Kyle Loshe or Lady Baldwin and Andy Barb for Jamie Moyer stuff here boyos. This is the big time.

It's high risk stuff and exciting. But scary too.

phillychuck wrote:Taylor is my favorite prospect, so I wouldn't do any deal with him in it.

The closest I'd do would be Drabek (centerpiece), Donald, Carrasco, and Knapp.

I'd consider that painful but fair.

What Chuck said.

I would hope that they only offer one of Happ/Drabek and NOT include Taylor. We shall see!

Besides LaPorta, who else did Cleveland get for Sabathia? Just curious.

Halladay is a bit different than Sabathia because that was a three month rental. We'd have him for a season and a half, if not more with an extension.

Personally, I say do it. Almost no matter what.

Im honestly struggling to think of a comparable deal. A stud pitcher traded with 1.25 years left on his deal in the middle of the season. Im also trying to figure out comparables in terms of salary beyond his 2010 year. He'll turn 33 next May. What is the biggest contract given to a pitcher 33 or older?

The Mets gave Pedro Martinez a 4/$51.5M deal when he was entering his age 33 season. Halladay will be entering his age 34 season. 2003 was Pedro's last dominating season, but he was awesome in 2002 and 2003, so the Mets weren't throwing a ton of money at a mediocre entity. And Halladay, as awesome as he is, wasn't near what Pedro was in his peak.

Who else qualifies here?

Glavine got 3/$35 when he was 37. He was under a longer deal that had an option during his 31-36 years.

Randy Johnson got a 4/$53 deal when he was 35. It became 5/65 when his option was picked up.

The Braves gave Derek Lowe a 4/60 deal when he was 35 entering his age 36 season.

I actually think the 4/60 is the benchmark. Add 20% to that, and you're at 4/72, or an AAV of $18M. He currently makes 14.25M this year, and 15.75 next year. BP has him valued at $12.23M this year, $10.45M next year. His valuations thereafter decline, but these numbers are static and will be updated when his new PECOTA is run this winter. Older players tend to have lower values based on the projection, but if they play well during the current season, those projections tend to be revised upwards.

He's making $15.75 in 2010. I think, at worst, you need an AAV of $17M for at least 4 years. I think it will ultimately be 4+ an option, knowing the Phillies unwillingness to give long term deals to pitchers. I can see an exception made for Halladay, they've had a boner for him for a while now.

That Derek Lowe contract is a killer for helping to bring down the market for pitchers.

Didn't think a Halladay trade was that likely 48 hours ago, but after some conversations the last two days, it seems even less likely.

klaw twittter

I sure hope Drabek wins a few Cy Youngs and Taylor wins the triple crown in the next 5 years.

ek wrote:what about if they just don't want to trade him? I hear the fan backlash would be unholy

its Blue Jays fans. How many of them are there? They are already 25th in average attendance. And its fucking Toronto, who else are they going to root for?

ek wrote:what about if they just don't want to trade him? I hear the fan backlash would be unholy

well....1.) JP shouldnt have opened this can of worms if he wasnt willing to trade him; 2.) what will the fan backlash be when they are in 4th place at next year's ASB and they trade him for 40% of what they could get now?

FTN wrote:

ek wrote:what about if they just don't want to trade him? I hear the fan backlash would be unholy

its Blue Jays fans. How many of them are there? They are already 25th in average attendance. And its $#@! Toronto, who else are they going to root for?

ARGONAUTS

i hear the maple leafs are pretty big there

jp ricciardi is an idiot. this can't be overemphasized.

That trade rumor that PC got sounds more like it might have been what the Jays countered with after the Phils made their opening offer. At least that is what I am telling myself. I would probably do it but I just don't think that is what we would already be offering at this point.

I wonder if JP will be given the final ok to make a deal. I think he has one year on his deal after this one. But will ownership allow it? This deal could make or break him. If he brings in a big return for Halladay, the fans will be pissed for a few weeks, but it could help turn the franchise around. If he sits on his ass and then loses Halladay for a bunch of scrap this winter, he's out of a job anyway and it sets the franchise back 5 years.

This is the guy who argued in the face of massive amounts of evidence on the BJ Ryan deal, and the guy who insisted on Ricky Romero over Tulo. Where theres a will theres a way

kruker wrote:jp ricciardi is an idiot. this can't be overemphasized.

Truth. Which is why I'm not sure Toronto ownership wouldn't think, "To hell with this--let's fire J.P. right now, bring in an interim GM to watch the team for the second half and gauge what we have and what we need, then have the permanent GM trade Halladay this winter if he thinks that's the way to go."

It's true that going that route might lessen the return, but at least it would ensure continuity between the big decisive action and what happens afterward. And I'm not positive it would lessen the return, unless Halladay did what Santana did two winters ago (veto any trade unless it came with a record-breaking extension).

FTN wrote:Im honestly struggling to think of a comparable deal. A stud pitcher traded with 1.25 years left on his deal in the middle of the season. Im also trying to figure out comparables in terms of salary beyond his 2010 year. He'll turn 33 next May. What is the biggest contract given to a pitcher 33 or older?

I could be wrong, but doesn't Curt Schilling qualify?

Yeah good call

3 years/$32M (2002-04)
signed extension with Arizona 12/15/00
02:$10M, 03:$10M, 04:$12M
half of salary each season deferred
$6M in performance bonuses

3 years/$15.45M (1998-2000), plus 2001 club option
signed extension with Philadelphia 4/3/97
98:$4.65M, 99:$5.15M, 00:$5.65M, 01:$6.5M club option
acquired by Arizona in trade with Philadelphia 7/00

His 2001 was an option, so that counts. He then got 3/32.

Schilling also applies to thing about Jays fans being pissed if Halladay is traded....I remember in '99 looking forward each week to his start, that day we felt like a playoff team. I don't think a package of prospects would have been worth losing a year and a half of that, as short sighted as that is. But that's the way it is Jays fans, suck it