Werthless wrote:That would be interesting, taking that albatross of a contract. But my guess is that we'd seriously dial down our prospect bundle then, and I'm not sure it would be a great fit anyway (I doubt Amaro wants to take on bad long-term contracts this early in his term as GM).

Of course, that's the whole point.

My opinion of Drabek (not the most expert, no doubt) is that he'll be in the rotation most of next year and probably post numbers along the lines of the Clayton Kershaw/Matt Cain type when they were in the very young first MLB season - i.e. low 4.00s ERA, 110-140 IP, 1.35 WHIP. Definitely not dominating, but solid and very useful.

IF (a big if) you assume that to be the case, what you are giving up in dealing Drabek for Halladay is the opportunity to have Drabek PLUS another expensive pitcher (Erik Bedard? another available through trade, such as Oswalt) in the rotation in 2010, solely because of the economics involved, instead of just Halladay. I don't believe any other Phils prospect can contribute that next year, thus I'd deal basically anyone else for a team that is built to win now. Hope that makes sense...a long way of saying I'd deal anyone but Drabeck to get Halladay. I would not do the deal if Drabek had to be included.

JFLNYC wrote:

Rube: "JP? I know you've got offers from the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers and Mets for the guy who is arguably the most valuable pitcher in all MLB. So I'm going to knock your socks off. I'm prepared to give you a kid one year off TJ surgery, a 2B/SS (neither of which you need) with a .617 OPS in AAA and a kid who's not really one of our top pitching prospects, but who's having a really nice year in AA."

** crickets **

JP? JP?"

First off, the Mets have nothing. Non-factor. Secondly, how can he sell that he's trying to win ever while trading the best pitcher in baseball to a division rival? Not gonna happen. Dodgers, maybe, but who knows...

Secondly, it's all about the sell.

Rube: JP, I've got a kid who is absolutely tearing up the minor leagues right now with a major league pedigree. Not only that, I've got an American hero, an Olympic medalist, 2 of them actually, and you can pick one of them. Not only that, I've got this kid who tearing up the minors in his first season of pro ball. So, ready to send that large contract to Philadelphia?

phatj wrote:

dajafi wrote:

philliesr98 wrote:I will also say, trading any ML talent right now is silly and counterproductive for what this trade is meant to do... so no to werth and vic, not midseason, thats just silly... this trade for a frontline starter should be viewed as a stretch run playoff thing to make the MLB team better.... only trade ML talent to either a) make room for prospect b)restock farm system. neither we need to do right now

I think this is sound, with the one exception that if there were another deal in place to replace Happ--or that the organization had much more confidence than I think they do that Carrasco could show up and replace Happ without a problem--then maybe I'd include J.A. in a deal for Halladay. *If* Hamels is okay and Moyer and Blanton are more like the guys from June/July than the April/May versions, we probably don't need Happ to win the division, and he doesn't help us that much in October going up against Ted Lilly or Clayton Kershaw.

OK, what am I missing here? If Happ is traded in a deal for Halladay, then Halladay is the replacement for Happ. Why do you need a second deal?

Yeah, I kind of mixed my points here. I think at first I meant to write that Happ's value might not be his ceiling so much as the relatively high likelihood that he'll be a league-average or better starter for a low low price over the next 3-4 years. Then I somehow slid into Happ's significance for the rest of 2009 (hence the second deal for, say, Doug Davis).

FTN wrote:

phatj wrote:Realistically, what would a package centered around Drabek look like?

for me?

One of Donald and Marson and one of Savery or Worley

Drabek, Donald and Savery would certainly be a better package than what Minnesota got for Santana, right?

Olney chimes in

Right now, the team most aggressively searching for a frontline starting pitcher is the Philadelphia Phillies, who no doubt would covet Halladay for their particular park for his ability to generate ground balls and missed swings -- he has a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 1.30, to go along 98 strikeouts in 116 innings this season. The question about the Phillies -- as it is with most teams these days, when the value of young players has never been higher -- is whether they would be willing to give up what the Jays would require in trade.
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The Jays would want one of the Dodgers' best young starters for Halladay -- either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley -- and that figures to be a deal-breaker for L.A.

I've also been playing with the Vernon Wells albatross relief scenario, as well as the possibility that Manuel/Milt could get more out of a guy who's underperformed his talent for years now despite being (by all accounts) a hard worker and good citizen.

Werth, Savery, Donald and Zagurski (my throw-in for today in every imaginary deal) for Halladay, Wells, and a Thome-like contract sweetener?

If we're taking Wells and losing Werth, that's a tough pill to swallow. No way they'll trade Victorino right now, which is a shame.

ek wrote:i like vic and werth but I noticed more people on here like Werth and dislike Vic. why is that?

Werth is a better baseball player.

ek wrote:i like vic and werth but I noticed more people on here like Werth and dislike Vic. why is that?

I don't understand that either because I am the complete opposite of that. I would take Vic over Werth any day of the week.

also prefer Werth

ek wrote:i like vic and werth but I noticed more people on here like Werth and dislike Vic. why is that?

Because Werth is a better player?

WARP3, 2009: 6.3
WARP3, 2009: 3.6 (Victorino)

Werth has 17 HR in 289 AB, last year he had 24 in 418 AB. If he maintains his HR/AB pace (1 every 17 AB) and he ends up with 590 AB, that's 35 HR.

If Werth ends up with a .370 OB%, 35 HR, and 100 RBI, how much would you want to trade him this winter?

Including this season, Werth has been worth 11 WAR as a Phillie (2007-09). Victorino has been worth 11.1 WAR (2006-09). Werth is slightly more valuable on average, but both excel at different aspects of the game.

Hes a superior offensive player. Victorino is faster, Werth has far more power. Victorino doesn't even fully utilize his speed. And his defense in CF is erratic.

In a competitive market for a unique asset which you really want and which will be sold, there is only one immutable constant: Whoever bids the highest wins. Not the lowest, not the smartest, not the toughest, not the shrewdest, but the highest. Obviously you don't want to overpay. But, if you really, really want that unique asset, overpaying is a distant second in importance to outbidding your competitors. And, the response to the argument that you've offered more than what the Twins got for Santana for the A's for Haren is: "So?" If your bid is the highest, you win. If not, you lose.

I don't know if anyone here dislikes Victorino necessarily, but I'm certainly not sentimentally attached to the guy, and his perceived value at this point far outstrips his actual contributions to the club, which are significant but not irreplaceable. That, to me, screams "Trade Bait" (insert graemlin).

CrashburnAlley wrote:Including this season, Werth has been worth 11 WAR as a Phillie (2007-09). Victorino has been worth 11.1 WAR (2006-09). Werth is slightly more valuable on average, but both excel at different aspects of the game.

Werth is considerably more valuable on average. His 11 WAR are over 302 games, less than two full seasons' worth. Victorino amassed his totals over 508 games.

What aspect of the game does Victorino excel at that Werth does not?

phatj wrote:

CrashburnAlley wrote:Including this season, Werth has been worth 11 WAR as a Phillie (2007-09). Victorino has been worth 11.1 WAR (2006-09). Werth is slightly more valuable on average, but both excel at different aspects of the game.

Werth is considerably more valuable on average. His 11 WAR are over 302 games, less than two full seasons' worth. Victorino amassed his totals over 508 games.

What aspect of the game does Victorino excel at that Werth does not?

Baserunning (Victorino was +2 EQBRR ahead of Werth last season)
Hitting for average

I was also going to say defense but Victorino's been pretty bad this season with a -14 UZR. He did have the third-best arm among CF last year, though. Not sure where Werth ranks as he's not mentioned in the article.

phatj wrote:

CrashburnAlley wrote:Including this season, Werth has been worth 11 WAR as a Phillie (2007-09). Victorino has been worth 11.1 WAR (2006-09). Werth is slightly more valuable on average, but both excel at different aspects of the game.

Werth is considerably more valuable on average. His 11 WAR are over 302 games, less than two full seasons' worth. Victorino amassed his totals over 508 games.

What aspect of the game does Victorino excel at that Werth does not?

Victorino is 13/17 in SB, Werth is 11/13. So even that advantage is small.

People here were down on Werth a few weeks ago when he hit a bit of a cold streak. But he's developing into a near elite OF offensively. And the odd thing is, he only has a .286 BABIP. So his numbers aren't really inflated in that regard.

FWIW, I agree that Werth is more valuable. If Vic is traded, Werth in CF and Taylor in RF with a platoon of Mayberry and a LH OF (Dobbs? Abreu (FA in offseason)?) as a backup if Taylor falters should be OK under the circumstances.

That said, IF such a deal happened, it is the type people do in the offseason, not now.