dajafi wrote:Obviously, circumstances around Doc Halladay are very different. Our system will be stripped if he get him (though I agree with jeff: one of Carrasco/Drabek, one of Taylor/Brown, one of Marson/D'Arnaud and one or two non-top 10 prospects should be enough). Might be worth it though.

Oakland also sent right-hander Connor Robertson to Arizona and received six players: left-handers Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland and Greg Smith; infielder Chris Carter; and outfielders Aaron Cunningham and Carlos Gonzalez.

Guerra (No. 2), Gomez (No. 3), Mulvey (No. 4) and Humber (No. 7) all ranked prominently on our Mets Top 10 Prospects list. But there’s simply too much risk involved in this deal for Minnesota.

The two best prospects in the trade, Guerra and Gomez, come with high ceilings but also lack a lot of polish and have a long ways to go to reach their potential. The odds that they both will do so are slim.

Guerra has an 89-94 mph fastball and a promising changeup and he’s only 18. But he also has a below-average breaking ball, has yet to pitch more than 90 innings in a season and while he has held his own, he hasn’t dominated. Gomez had the best package of tools in the Mets system, but his bat is still extemely raw as evidenced by his career .273/.331/.384 averages in the minors.

Mulvey has an arsenal of four average pitches and throws strikes. He’s not overpowering and he’s most likely a No. 4 starter. Since having Tommy John surgery in 2005, Humber hasn’t fully regained the stuff that made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2004 draft. His curveball is his best pitch but his fastball now sits at 87-91 mph. He too projects as a No. 4 starter.

The Twins have traded Santana for two high-reward but also high-risk prospects, and two back-of-the-rotation starters. They didn’t get a prospect whose combination of ceiling and certainty approaches that of Hughes, whom the Yankees were willing to deal for Santana earlier in the winter. They didn’t get a package comparable to the ones the Red Sox reportedly offered earlier, fronted by either Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester and also containing two solid prospects nearly ready for the majors: righty Justin Masterson and shortstop Jed Lowrie.

The centerpiece of the deal, Gonzalez, offers prototype right-fielder tools, including easy power to all fields and an above-average arm. The 22-year-old Venezuelan runs well enough to play center field, but he's not quite consistent enough there to profile as a regular. The lefthanded-hitting Gonzalez sometimes struggles for a plan at the plate and can get in trouble when he gets pull-happy, but after hitting .286/.330/.476 with 16 home runs for Double-A Mobile in the tough Southern League, he's proven that he's nearly ready to take the next step.

Drafted in the second round from a Oklahoma high school in 2006, Anderson jumped to high Class A Visalia in his pro debut, and while his strikeout-to-walk ratio remained strong (40-11), he went just 3-3, 4.85 in nine starts. Anderson, 19, fared much better with low Class South Bend, where he made his first 14 starts, going 8-4, 2.21 with 85-10 K-BB. The son of Oklahoma State coach Fred Anderson, a noted mentor of pitchers, Brett always pitches with a plan. Though his fastball seldom tops 90 mph, he throws two breaking balls for strikes as well as a changeup.

Cunningham and Carter, both 21, came to the Diamondbacks in separate trades with the White Sox. Now both head to Oakland. Cunningham went unnoticed and undrafted out of high school, but the White Sox were rewarded in their investment of a sixth-round pick in 2005, as Cunningham has done nothing but hit since leaving Everett (Wash.) CC. He batted .308/.375/.509 with 16 home runs and 28 stolen bases in high Class A and Double-A in 2007. Hitting comes easy to the muscular, compact Cunningham, but at times he's a bit too aggressive at the plate. Though he runs and throws well, Cunningham already is limited to left field because he gets poor jumps and lacks throwing accuracy.

Carter hit .291/.383/. 522 for low Class A Kannapolis in 2007, finishing third in the South Atlantic League with 25 home runs and 93 RBIs. Taken as a third baseman from a Las Vegas high school in the 15th round of the 2005 draft, the righthanded-hitting Carter has shown average to above power and command of the strike zone in his three pro seasons. He's a career .284/.373/.514 hitter.

Smith, 24, a smart college lefty from Louisiana State (sixth round, 2005) missed time with shoulder soreness in 2007, but still managed to go 9-5, 3.54 with 96-32 K-BB in 122 innings at Double- and Triple-A. Like Anderson he tops out around 90 mph, but has exceptional feel for his pitches, which also include a plus curveball and an above-average changeup. Like many athletic lefties, Smith has a strong pickoff move to first base.

Robertson, 26, struggled in his big league debut in 2007, giving up four runs on six hits and two walks in two innings. He fared much better in the minors, going 4-1, 4.35 with 40-21 K-BB in 39 innings for Triple-A Sacramento. A 31st-round pick of the A's from Birmingham-Southern in 2004, Robertson has good command of average stuff, including a high-80s sinker and a slider. His young brother David is a righthander in the Yankees system.

The Red Tornado wrote:that trade pisses me off more now than it did back then

A big key in any Halladay trade discussions is whether or not Toronto would block off their divisional foes from the bidding. Take out Tampa, Boston and NY and that really hurts three teams that definitely have the prospects necessary to acquire him (should the want to). If Toronto is going to want to avoid the AL like Minny did, it would be a huge break for the Phils

Just looking at NL teams, with the combination of winning current club, payroll flexibility, minor league depth and need, the Phils are arguably the most logical fit of any team. Brewers make sense too although they may lack the payroll and may be more shy about completely cleaning out the system in two years. Dodgers have all those characteristics as well, but lack top end prospects (since theirs are all now in the majors), so would have to move a key big league guy in all likelihood

GMAN wrote:Happ would likely be a guy we would have to deal to get Halladay. He's already in the ML, he's also cheap and has been very good.

Drabek, Happ, Brown and Marson should get it done. Oh and Halladay may be the only guy I would trade that much for.

phillychuck wrote:

GMAN wrote:Happ would likely be a guy we would have to deal to get Halladay. He's already in the ML, he's also cheap and has been very good.

Drabek, Happ, Brown and Marson should get it done. Oh and Halladay may be the only guy I would trade that much for.

Drabek and Brown in the same deal is too much, and Happ and Marson make this an overwhelmingly one sided trade in Toronto's favor. You're only getting a year-and-a-half of Halladay.

Substitute Carassco for Drabek and Savery and D'Arnaud for Happ and Marson and I think Toronto would still go for the deal.