swishnicholson wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:Rhys says 3 to 4 months recovery time if he has the surgery.

that would probably keep him out of the playoffs

could be rainouts

One day 7 game world series in february

The Dude wrote:One day 7 game world series in february

In the new home of the Blue Jays

06hawkalum wrote:Also, it is silly to think of JT as purely a catcher. His bat makes him valuable as a DH.

Sure, if you sign him to a DH contract.

If you sign him to the highest paid catcher contract in history and he plays any position other than catcher, you're gonna lose big-time no matter what he does.

Yup. In 3 years JT’s bat at DH is going to be considerably less productive and considerably too expensive.

WhiteyFan wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:Also, it is silly to think of JT as purely a catcher. His bat makes him valuable as a DH.

Sure, if you sign him to a DH contract.

If you sign him to the highest paid catcher contract in history and he plays any position other than catcher, you're gonna lose big-time no matter what he does.

Also, if you sign him to a 5-6 year deal based on the rules today, and they go to robo-umps next year, we also lose.

Just too many variables.

I know its too early to anoint Sixto a star. All I said was Id rather have him than JTR all things considered, and I stand by that.

JFLNYC wrote:Yup. In 3 years JT’s bat at DH is going to be considerably less productive and considerably too expensive.

but that's in 2023/2024.
what about 2021-2022?

mtcal wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Yup. In 3 years JT’s bat at DH is going to be considerably less productive and considerably too expensive.

but that's in 2023/2024.
what about 2021-2022?

Hopefully they learned from Howard contract to think about the entire thing and not a year or two.

I think JT is elite enough of a thrower and strong enough of a pitch blocker that even if he's not still elite in 3 years he will be catching regularly and contributing positively. I don't think his bat is worth paying anything special for, and certainly don't see using him as a future DH to be a mitigating factor to a huge long-term deal being OK.

I think the pitch framing aspect of the discussion is moot because I truly don't think he's good at it despite what Tom McCarthy tries to tell me. And while defensive sabr stats are slowly but surely making progress thanks mostly to now analyzing where a defender started in his positioning, I don't yet put any stock in pitch framing metrics. From observation ("I watch the games so obviously I know"), he's horrible at it. He doesn't frame much of anything; he takes a perfect slider a fraction off the plate and jerks it back to the middle of the strike zone and today's umps are not going to fall for that trick. I think he could get his staff a few more calls if he'd hold the glove right there as if it's the perfect pitch even if slightly off. To me, that's the definition of framing.

I won't blast anyone if they ink him long-term, because I think he's spry enough, fit enough and appears to work hard enough to be one of the minority of catchers who can keep at it defensively a bit past the typical catcher's prime. But if it's more than 4 years and/or $100M I also won't consider it anything close to a wise contract because I fully admit the odds say he is more typical than I'm imagining.

When the trade was made, re-signing Realmuto was baked into the deal. That had to happen for the trade to make sense. To get, you have to give. The Phillies got two seasons of high quality play from Realmuto at less than market value. If JT get five or six years at $22-25M, that’s the cost of doing business.

We have like 40+ million coming off the books in Arrieta, Robertson, and Didi this year. It's not your money. This is one of the things I guess I've stopped obsessing about with sports over the years. Just spend the god damn money. They have it. There's no cap. Any cap is self-imposed. Middleton has money. They could run a $300 million payroll if they wanted. The guy is good at baseball. Just bleeping sign him.

We can afford JT. Next year is the main/only concern for the luxury tax. Sign him for 5/150

2021 - 12.5M
2022 - 100M
2023 - 12.5M
2024 - 12.5M
2024 - 12.5M

With the strike we'll get him for 4/50!

My serious point is that we have no idea about structure or level for luxury tax after the current CBA. If the players get anywhere near a commensurate increase in the tax threshold JT (and others) will look like bargains.

I'm concerned that his current injury is indicative of the future. There's a reason catchers drop off dramatically after the age of 30. He COULD be the exception to the rule, but chances are against it.

Besides, I fully expect the Mets' new owner to spend whatever it takes to get not only JT, but any other FA they think they need.

CFP wrote:We have like 40+ million coming off the books in Arrieta, Robertson, and Didi this year. It's not your money. This is one of the things I guess I've stopped obsessing about with sports over the years. Just spend the god damn money. They have it. There's no cap. Any cap is self-imposed. Middleton has money. They could run a $300 million payroll if they wanted. The guy is good at baseball. Just bleeping sign him.

I honestly don't think it is about spending money, it is the number of holes this team has. You potentially need 2-3 starters, a whole new bullpen to start, and a Didi replacement if they let him walk. JT is going to eat a lot of that money up. And I know there isn't a cap but you can't go over the luxury tax every year when your team isn't near good enough to win it all.

If the front office was doing it’s job at the same level that Middleton was supporting them financially the Phillies would be winning 100 games a year instead of needing to overpay a catcher just to win 80. Maybe if we get to the highest payroll in MLB history they can beat the Marlins.

WhiteyFan wrote:I know its too early to anoint Sixto a star. All I said was Id rather have him than JTR all things considered, and I stand by that.

i'm fine with anyone that has this sentiment. i think the more macro question is would you rather have harper/realmuto/wheeler or sixto? i think it's plausible that harper goes elsewhere without that trade and then with no harper/realmuto (and likely a worse record) is philly that attractive for wheeler the next offseason? and i don't know which is worse to watch, a "capped" out .500 team or a middle of the road, crappy team.

i'd certainly like to see a front office makeover, but the fact is we've seen two contrasting regimes in both field staff and player development, with the same mediocre results (too early to tell with amateur scouting). it just feels like they're stuck where they are, no matter what they do.

Team already has the highest payroll for 2021 and 2022 according to sportrac.

I think we're focusing on the wrong catcher:

@M_Montemurro wrote:Interesting tidbit: Phillies C Andrew Knapp is only player to have at least 4 extra-base hits in 9 or fewer career ABs vs. Jacob deGrom, according to Elias. Freeman & Stanton are only ones with more career XBH (5) vs. deGrom.

Knapp's also lone hitter with 2B, 3B & HR off deGrom.

heyeaglefn wrote:Team already has the highest payroll for 2021 and 2022 according to sportrac.

That doesn't sound right. At least not for AAV.

Already on the books for next year:

$26M = Bryce
$22.5M = Wheeler
$20M = Cutch
$14.85M = Jean
$11.75M = Nola
$4M = Jetpax

$12M option = Robertson
$7M option = Neris
$4.5M option = Phelps
??? $10M = Odubel

Not on the books yet:
1st year arbitration = Rhys
2nd year arbitration = Eflin, Knapp, Goose, Hale
3rd year arbitration = Morgan, Vince, Hembree