azrider wrote:and the cost in both salary and/or acquisition per fwar?

fair point - just using 2018 and 2019 numbers for salary compared to fWAR value calculations.

Phillies - $290.5 fWAR value v. $68.3 financial outlay
Barves - $141.7 fWAR value v. $3.1 financial outlay (god I hate them)
Nats - $134.0 fWAR value v. $5.5 financial outlay
Mets - $122.0 fWAR value v. $13.6 financial outlay

My ultimate point is that the fringes and depth of the Phillies look weak compared to the other teams above, but we have some really productive younger players.

WhiteyFan wrote:I do wonder what they plan is. Feels like we're down to our last couple bullets in the chamber. We can probably take on 1-2 more decent sized contracts in the next year or so and we pretty much need Bohm and Howard to both contribute. Short of that, we're in trouble.

I also wonder if they're planning to go with some sort of opener strategy this season? Our rotation currently resembles Tampa's from year in that we really only have 2, maybe 3 starters.

369 guys started games in the majors last year (over 12 per team).
Only 61 of them qualified for the ERA title (162+ innings), or about 2 per team.
The ERA qualifiers pitched about 45% of the total starter innings, and made about 40% of the starts.
So, the other 308 guys pitched 55% of the starter innings, and made 60% of the starts.

So the typical (81-81) 2019 MLB team had:

-- 2 starters combine for about 377 innings over 64 starts (under 6 IP per start) with a 3.84 ERA
-- 10 other starters combine for about 462 innings over 98 starts (under 5 IP per start) with a 5.11 ERA

The 2019 Phillies were very close to this, which makes sense since we were 81-81, the definition of average. Nola and Eflin combined for 360 SP innings over 62 starts, with a 4.03 ERA, and we had 10 other starters combine for 509.2 IP over 100 starts (over 5 per start) with a 5.07 ERA.

Wheeler threw 195.1 innings over 31 starts, which should at least replace Smyly (63 IP/12 starts), Vargas (55/11), and Eichhoff (53/10).

If we have a durable top 3 that throw 550 innings (they threw 555 last year), for about a 3.85 ERA (they were about 4.00 last year), we're in good shape, even if Arrieta still sucks, and we're throwing out Pivetta and VV as our 5/6 starters. They're better than most guys in that role. Or, throw a rejuvenated Arrieta into our top 3, and Eflin is just one of the other guys who make starts.

It's possible to make the playoffs without having multiple reliable guys in the rotation - the Brewers had 0 starters qualify for the ERA title, and the Yankees and Rays 1 each. But 7 of the 10 playoff teams had at least 2, and 5 had at least 3. The 2 World Series teams each had 4.

And the Brewers had a +3 run differential and outperformed their pythag. record by 8 wins.

The B1G Piece wrote:

azrider wrote:and the cost in both salary and/or acquisition per fwar?

fair point - just using 2018 and 2019 numbers for salary compared to fWAR value calculations.

Phillies - $290.5 fWAR value v. $68.3 financial outlay
Barves - $141.7 fWAR value v. $3.1 financial outlay (god I hate them)
Nats - $134.0 fWAR value v. $5.5 financial outlay
Mets - $122.0 fWAR value v. $13.6 financial outlay

My ultimate point is that the fringes and depth of the Phillies look weak compared to the other teams above, but we have some really productive younger players.

yeah, but it's that cost and one that really points to the failure of the rebuild where the team doesn't have the ability without going well into the tax for the fringe and depth.

honestly, i have to be happy and kinda am with a shot to be competitive for a wild card if things go their way. they are going to have to pay to be competitive but have to be careful to remain flexible and willing to go over the cap, if and only if, they know for certain they are in striking distance. hopefully the moves made in both scouting and development start to pay dividends because what the phillies have done so far is really unsustainable without significant improvement from within.

Then there's the Bullpen.  I know, there's still time to figure it out, and even after the season starts there will be options available.  Lately, it seems it's a low priority (or no priority) with the FO, and maybe rightly so.  Sure doesn't seem like there are any big moves afoot.  But facing the season with what we have now is worrisome. 
Seranthony may yet be the closer or have surgery ... Neris is still a possibility ... Robertson likely gone for all 2020... Can Morgan help -- who knows?  Hunter should be ok, but...?  Should they let VV or Pivetta try it again? 

I wasn't all that sad that risky Betances went to the Mets, but if he stays healthy ... well, he can make them stronger.

For the Fightins, a whole lot of Ifs and speculation.  Anxiety.

I think the pen could really really suck this year

then again they could be really good

Or somewhere in between!

hunter isn’t on the team fwiw.

1 wrote:Or somewhere in between!

I’m betting on suck

MoBettle wrote:And the Brewers had a +3 run differential and outperformed their pythag. record by 8 wins.

and the Rays were using openers and the Yankees had the best offense in baseball.

I'm not getting into an argument about how not having reliable starters that pitch well doesn't matter because that's batshit crazy and it certainly does matter unless you have a juggernaut on the offensive side of the game, which we don't. I mean, holy shit.

Of the top 15 teams in starter ERA, 10 made the playoffs. 4 of the other 5 were the 4 closest to making the playoffs without making it. None of the bottom 15 teams made it. Cincinnati was the one outlier.

Sure, you can get to those lower ERAs in many different ways, but by far the easiest is having good starters who throw a lot of innings. Maybe we'll have openers or maybe we'll have someone come up from AAA or maybe Eflin will put together a full season of solid pitching, but we need to do better than an average 81 win team if we want to be a serious contender from the start.

Monkeyboy wrote:

MoBettle wrote:And the Brewers had a +3 run differential and outperformed their pythag. record by 8 wins.

and the Rays were using openers and the Yankees had the best offense in baseball.

I'm not getting into an argument about how not having reliable starters that pitch well doesn't matter because that's batshit crazy and it certainly does matter unless you have a juggernaut on the offensive side of the game, which we don't. I mean, holy shit.

Of the top 15 teams in starter ERA, 10 made the playoffs. 4 of the other 5 were the 4 closest to making the playoffs without making it. None of the bottom 15 teams made it. Cincinnati was the one outlier.

Sure, you can get to those lower ERAs in many different ways, but by far the easiest is having good starters who throw a lot of innings. Maybe we'll have openers or maybe we'll have someone come up from AAA or maybe Eflin will put together a full season of solid pitching, but we need to do better than an average 81 win team if we want to be a serious contender from the start.

Maybe try reading comprehension.

If we have 3 starters who qualify for the ERA title, and pitch decently, we're ahead of almost every team. If we have 4, we're a mortal lock for the playoffs. We have 3 of them who did it last year, and we have Arrieta.

MOST teams do not have what we have on the mound right now. Both Nola and Wheeler, who are top-20 pitchers, and then Eflin and Arrieta. Eflin's pitched 250+ innings of slightly better than average innings over the last 2 years. That's all he has to do - start 28-32 games, and pitch to a 100 ERA+, about a 4.50 ERA in CBP. IF, and it's a big IF, Arrieta is healthier, and thus more effective, and we have 4 guys that we rely on for 110+ starts, we're playing games in October.

The idea that we're so short of SP that we have to rely on openers is nuts. Pivetta and VV are better than average options at the 5 and spot starter roles.

ReadingPhilly wrote:hunter isn’t on the team fwiw.

Where is he now?

gulfcoaster wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:hunter isn’t on the team fwiw.

Where is he now?

Never mind ... finally found out that he elected FA according to MLB.com

Shore wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

MoBettle wrote:And the Brewers had a +3 run differential and outperformed their pythag. record by 8 wins.

and the Rays were using openers and the Yankees had the best offense in baseball.

I'm not getting into an argument about how not having reliable starters that pitch well doesn't matter because that's batshit crazy and it certainly does matter unless you have a juggernaut on the offensive side of the game, which we don't. I mean, holy shit.

Of the top 15 teams in starter ERA, 10 made the playoffs. 4 of the other 5 were the 4 closest to making the playoffs without making it. None of the bottom 15 teams made it. Cincinnati was the one outlier.

Sure, you can get to those lower ERAs in many different ways, but by far the easiest is having good starters who throw a lot of innings. Maybe we'll have openers or maybe we'll have someone come up from AAA or maybe Eflin will put together a full season of solid pitching, but we need to do better than an average 81 win team if we want to be a serious contender from the start.

Maybe try reading comprehension.

If we have 3 starters who qualify for the ERA title, and pitch decently, we're ahead of almost every team. If we have 4, we're a mortal lock for the playoffs. We have 3 of them who did it last year, and we have Arrieta.

MOST teams do not have what we have on the mound right now. Both Nola and Wheeler, who are top-20 pitchers, and then Eflin and Arrieta. Eflin's pitched 250+ innings of slightly better than average innings over the last 2 years. That's all he has to do - start 28-32 games, and pitch to a 100 ERA+, about a 4.50 ERA in CBP. IF, and it's a big IF, Arrieta is healthier, and thus more effective, and we have 4 guys that we rely on for 110+ starts, we're playing games in October.

The idea that we're so short of SP that we have to rely on openers is nuts. Pivetta and VV are better than average options at the 5 and spot starter roles.

I was referring to your last few lines about not needing multiple reliable starters to make the playoffs. The 3 teams that were in that position all had some kind of exceptional thing about them. The Rays used openers so they couldn't qualify for your criteria (but they still got excellent starting pitching, which is why I posted about the top 15 thing). I never said I thought the Phils needed to have openers.... not sure where you get that. The Brewers got lucky with run differential, which can't be counted on, but they still had better starting pitching than us by a little bit. The Yankees didn't need starting pitching because they bludgeoned teams with their offense, but they were still better than us as starters.

If your point was that we could make the playoffs if we pitch better as starters with Wheeler in the rotation, then I agree with that. But that means either Arrieta has to get healthy or Eflin has to pitch more consistently (to get to that 3.84 combo with Nola). I think we need to add another pitcher to avoid needing to have everything go right. Or at least we would so significantly increase our chances of making the playoffs that it make sense to go over the cap to get that extra starter.

Anyway, I don't think we disagree as much as it would appear. If things go well, we could make the playoffs as constituted. I just don't think everything will go well given the number and types of uncertainties we have on the roster at the moment.

In the discussion of how to improve one item that wouldn't cost money or prospects is Hoskins not being the worst middle of the order hitter in baseball for half of the season. I'm not talking MVP or even All Star production, but you can't have your first baseman be an automatic out unless he walks.

Christ a walk is an out now??

MattFoley wrote:In the discussion of how to improve one item that wouldn't cost money or prospects is Hoskins not being the worst middle of the order hitter in baseball for half of the season. I'm not talking MVP or even All Star production, but you can't have your first baseman be an automatic out unless he walks.

Sure, but there's no reason to think he will be. He had 2+ seasons of mashing the shit out of the ball, then a bad half. I think someone got in his head about pulling the ball too much, and it screwed him up.

His hard-hit % was consistent, even better, than his career number, and pretty consistent half to half (46.9% first, 45.3% 2nd). But he had a .931 OPS in the 1st half and .679 in the 2nd. The one glaring thing I see is that 1st half his pull / center / oppo splits were 54% / 31% / 15%, but in the 2nd half they were 39% / 36% / 25%. This is a guy who had a 1.345 OPS when he pulled the ball, and a .496 OPS going oppo. He pulled the ball around 50% of the time every month of his career, then in August it was 35% and Sep/Oct was 38%.

Whatever he was trying to do those last 2+ months, he just needs to stop.

Shore wrote:

MattFoley wrote:In the discussion of how to improve one item that wouldn't cost money or prospects is Hoskins not being the worst middle of the order hitter in baseball for half of the season. I'm not talking MVP or even All Star production, but you can't have your first baseman be an automatic out unless he walks.

Sure, but there's no reason to think he will be. He had 2+ seasons of mashing the #$!&@ out of the ball, then a bad half. I think someone got in his head about pulling the ball too much, and it screwed him up.

His hard-hit % was consistent, even better, than his career number, and pretty consistent half to half (46.9% first, 45.3% 2nd). But he had a .931 OPS in the 1st half and .679 in the 2nd. The one glaring thing I see is that 1st half his pull / center / oppo splits were 54% / 31% / 15%, but in the 2nd half they were 39% / 36% / 25%. This is a guy who had a 1.345 OPS when he pulled the ball, and a .496 OPS going oppo. He pulled the ball around 50% of the time every month of his career, then in August it was 35% and Sep/Oct was 38%.

Whatever he was trying to do those last 2+ months, he just needs to stop.

Fine. But it has to happen if the Phils are going to contend. There is no one else to fill that role.

And, for the guy laughing about a walk not being an out, a TEAM needs different things from different positions. If the best offensive quality from your slow footed, middle of the order first baseman is he walks a lot it's not much of a plus.

i agree with everyone who has posited that the players will need to play well for the phillies to contend.