2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping roles

Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Shore » Fri Dec 27, 2019 15:01:12

MattFoley wrote:Fine. But it has to happen if the Phils are going to contend. There is no one else to fill that role.

And, for the guy laughing about a walk not being an out, a TEAM needs different things from different positions. If the best offensive quality from your slow footed, middle of the order first baseman is he walks a lot it's not much of a plus.


1) Has there ever been a player who was 30-40% better than league average for the first 1200+ PA of his career, and stopped hitting at age 27, aside from an injury? I mean, it has to be an anomaly, right? It doesn't seem like the kind of thing you should worry about.

2) Jay Bruce probably could fill that role... he hit 26 homers in 310 AB, and aside from a disaster of a 2018 with the Mets, has been a consistent power source for a decade. As a bonus, he doesn't walk. :wink:

3) All baserunners are a plus. All of them. Hoskins isn't some historically bad baserunner.

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby MoBettle » Fri Dec 27, 2019 15:24:38

Shore wrote:
MattFoley wrote:Fine. But it has to happen if the Phils are going to contend. There is no one else to fill that role.

And, for the guy laughing about a walk not being an out, a TEAM needs different things from different positions. If the best offensive quality from your slow footed, middle of the order first baseman is he walks a lot it's not much of a plus.


1) Has there ever been a player who was 30-40% better than league average for the first 1200+ PA of his career, and stopped hitting at age 27, aside from an injury? I mean, it has to be an anomaly, right? It doesn't seem like the kind of thing you should worry about.

2) Jay Bruce probably could fill that role... he hit 26 homers in 310 AB, and aside from a disaster of a 2018 with the Mets, has been a consistent power source for a decade. As a bonus, he doesn't walk. :wink:

3) All baserunners are a plus. All of them. Hoskins isn't some historically bad baserunner.


Pretty similar to Burrell's arc, actually. Pat obviously recovered, granted never quite matched his age 25 season again.

I think this team needs him to be better than Burrell though, unless some other guys step up.
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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby BigEd76 » Fri Dec 27, 2019 16:15:18

Christian Bethancourt is a Phillies. Minor league deal + ST invite

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Shore » Fri Dec 27, 2019 16:16:39

MoBettle wrote:Pretty similar to Burrell's arc, actually. Pat obviously recovered, granted never quite matched his age 25 season again.

I think this team needs him to be better than Burrell though, unless some other guys step up.


But that’s kinda my point. Burrell has a 123 OPS+ on 3 seasons, the sucked for a year (90 OPS+), then had a 5 year run with... a 123 OPS+. He was back to exactly what he was before.

Hoskins IS better. His starting point, through this year’s all star break, is about a 140 OPS+. He didn’t have a bad year, he had a bad half. I just don’t see an argument against a rebound for him. .260 with 38 bombs and 100+ walks.

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Shore » Fri Dec 27, 2019 16:19:15

BigEd76 wrote:Christian Bethancourt is a Phillies. Minor league deal + ST invite


He gonna catch or pitch?

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby JFLNYC » Fri Dec 27, 2019 16:39:30

It’s actually not unheard of for a hitter to have his best years (30-40% or more over league average) in his mid-20’s but then struggle to reach those levels thereafter. Off the top of my head I’d guess John Mayberry, Sr., Jeff Burroughs, Jim Ray Hart, Eric Chavez, Evan Longoria, Vernon Wells. I’m sure there are others.
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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby BigEd76 » Fri Dec 27, 2019 17:02:57

The Phils put out a "Thank you Maikel" thing on all their socials

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Shore » Fri Dec 27, 2019 17:35:44

JFLNYC wrote:It’s actually not unheard of for a hitter to have his best years (30-40% or more over league average) in his mid-20’s but then struggle to reach those levels thereafter. Off the top of my head I’d guess John Mayberry, Sr., Jeff Burroughs, Jim Ray Hart, Eric Chavez, Evan Longoria, Vernon Wells. I’m sure there are others.


Chavez hurt his back, and Wells doesn't really qualify as his only 4 "good seasons" were ages 24, 27, 29, and 31, which is a different profile. I know Longoria slowed down, but was still a plus player. The other guys are too damned old for my memory :)

Regardless, there have to be 500 or more players have had hit that well before age 27, and even if we take your 5, and multiply by 5, you're looking at 1/20 failure rate, and many of them, like Chavez, will have injuries tied to it.

Seems far more likely that Hoskins rebounds, and we're bitching about something entirely different next offseason.

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Shore » Fri Dec 27, 2019 17:39:35

BigEd76 wrote:The Phils put out a "Thank you Maikel" thing on all their socials


"Thanks for failing to develop, AT ALL!"

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Dec 27, 2019 22:51:54

Shore wrote:
MattFoley wrote:In the discussion of how to improve one item that wouldn't cost money or prospects is Hoskins not being the worst middle of the order hitter in baseball for half of the season. I'm not talking MVP or even All Star production, but you can't have your first baseman be an automatic out unless he walks.


Sure, but there's no reason to think he will be. He had 2+ seasons of mashing the shit out of the ball, then a bad half. I think someone got in his head about pulling the ball too much, and it screwed him up.

His hard-hit % was consistent, even better, than his career number, and pretty consistent half to half (46.9% first, 45.3% 2nd). But he had a .931 OPS in the 1st half and .679 in the 2nd. The one glaring thing I see is that 1st half his pull / center / oppo splits were 54% / 31% / 15%, but in the 2nd half they were 39% / 36% / 25%. This is a guy who had a 1.345 OPS when he pulled the ball, and a .496 OPS going oppo. He pulled the ball around 50% of the time every month of his career, then in August it was 35% and Sep/Oct was 38%.

Whatever he was trying to do those last 2+ months, he just needs to stop.


Maybe they started pitching him differently? I didn't watch as many games as most of you but it sure seemed like they were pitching him differently.
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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Monkeyboy » Fri Dec 27, 2019 22:53:12

ReadingPhilly wrote:i agree with everyone who has posited that the players will need to play well for the phillies to contend.


I think we just disagree on the likelihood that will happen, smart guy.
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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby rolex » Fri Dec 27, 2019 23:05:14

Monkeyboy wrote:
Shore wrote:
MattFoley wrote:In the discussion of how to improve one item that wouldn't cost money or prospects is Hoskins not being the worst middle of the order hitter in baseball for half of the season. I'm not talking MVP or even All Star production, but you can't have your first baseman be an automatic out unless he walks.


Sure, but there's no reason to think he will be. He had 2+ seasons of mashing the #$!&@ out of the ball, then a bad half. I think someone got in his head about pulling the ball too much, and it screwed him up.

His hard-hit % was consistent, even better, than his career number, and pretty consistent half to half (46.9% first, 45.3% 2nd). But he had a .931 OPS in the 1st half and .679 in the 2nd. The one glaring thing I see is that 1st half his pull / center / oppo splits were 54% / 31% / 15%, but in the 2nd half they were 39% / 36% / 25%. This is a guy who had a 1.345 OPS when he pulled the ball, and a .496 OPS going oppo. He pulled the ball around 50% of the time every month of his career, then in August it was 35% and Sep/Oct was 38%.

Whatever he was trying to do those last 2+ months, he just needs to stop.


Maybe they started pitching him differently? I didn't watch as many games as most of you but it sure seemed like they were pitching him differently.

Breaking ball down and away. Instead of going with the pitch to right field, he was trying to pull it into the left field stands and missed the pitch.

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby JFLNYC » Fri Dec 27, 2019 23:32:10

Thus ended many a major league career!
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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Shore » Sat Dec 28, 2019 01:29:29

Oddly, Hoskins went opposite field nearly twice as oftenX and pulled far less in the 2nd half.

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby azrider » Sat Dec 28, 2019 01:50:23

I’m no hitting coach and shore probably has stats that disprove my theory completely. Definitely seems he’s really trying to uppercut (aka improve launch angle) the ball more and not really getting the barrel of the bat solidly on the ball. He’s got a good eye, recognition and approach. I think he just needs to level his swing a bit. I’m really not worried about him and think he will be a good hitter who will still have good power.

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby BigEd76 » Sat Dec 28, 2019 22:17:09

Dickerson to the Marlins ... 2/$17.5M

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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Monkeyboy » Sun Dec 29, 2019 00:01:27

Shore wrote:Oddly, Hoskins went opposite field nearly twice as oftenX and pulled far less in the 2nd half.



so maybe his efforts to go with the pitch messed him up. I always thought it was weird how successful he was pulling that outside pitch. He hit a bunch of HRs doing that. Maybe he was trying to be a more prototypical good hitter and go the other way and it actually hurt him? So maybe it was the pitcher's approach, but his own.
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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby Monkeyboy » Sun Dec 29, 2019 00:03:02

dang, I was hoping dickerson would come back here.
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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby MattFoley » Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:27:40

Monkeyboy wrote:dang, I was hoping dickerson would come back here.


Or to the American League. It seems his skill set fits better with the DH as a way to get him more at bats.
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Re: 2019-20 Phillies Offseason 2:Filling holes & swapping ro

Postby 06hawkalum » Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:40:10

MattFoley wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:dang, I was hoping dickerson would come back here.


Or to the American League. It seems his skill set fits better with the DH as a way to get him more at bats.


He will play every day for the Marlins and then be traded at the deadline.
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