Hector Neris is more like Hector NAIRis because every time he comes in he SHAVES A RUN OFF THE LEAD

Uncle Milty wrote:What potential GM walks away from a job in a big market with ownership willing to spend? They have to deal with ownership on every team and I assume the most attractive thing is resources.

If they sign another big FA this offseason (which I think they will) and dont make the playoffs (which is good possibility given the talent on the Braves/Nats), Klentak WILL be the fall-guy. At that point, we will be a team saddled with HUGE contracts and no money left to spend. Those "attractive resources" will be gone.

I'm really not even faulting/questioning anything that has been done. I like Harper too, and I dont really care all that much about the manager/coaches. I just wish the public perception was that Klentak was making the decisions (even if he wasn't). There's just no reason / advantage to have Meddleton publicly override Klentak on major decisions. All he's doing is stroking his ego. You WIP'ers may think it's great now, but I guarantee the rest of baseball doesnt agree.

At this point, for 2021, the phillies have $95M in 6 players (assuming options are declined for Jake and Robertson) which includes $10M to Herrera which leaves whoever is the GM somewhere around $114M to build out the remaining roster and stay under the projected tax cap.

Bill McNeal wrote:At this point, for 2021, the phillies have $95M in 6 players (assuming options are declined for Jake and Robertson) which includes $10M to Herrera which leaves whoever is the GM somewhere around $114M to build out the remaining roster and stay under the projected tax cap.

Yeah I think it's a real misnomer that Harper is some sort of crippling contract. Isn't his AAV 25? What they gave Howard nearly a decade ago, what they gave an aging Arrieta a few years ago. Even if you're adding Cole into this at let's say 30, and Realmuto at I dunno, 21, and Harper at 25, that's $76 million between three guys. There will be a $200 million payroll if it means trying to win a title. The GM will have money to spend.

CFP wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:At this point, for 2021, the phillies have $95M in 6 players (assuming options are declined for Jake and Robertson) which includes $10M to Herrera which leaves whoever is the GM somewhere around $114M to build out the remaining roster and stay under the projected tax cap.

Yeah I think it's a real misnomer that Harper is some sort of crippling contract. Isn't his AAV 25? What they gave Howard nearly a decade ago, what they gave an aging Arrieta a few years ago. Even if you're adding Cole into this at let's say 30, and Realmuto at I dunno, 21, and Harper at 25, that's $76 million between three guys. There will be a $200 million payroll if it means trying to win a title. The GM will have money to spend.

Just a precautionary reminder, the current CBA expires prior to the 2021 season.

Klentak and MacPhail are disasters that are running a bad team further into the ground. Middleton is also making a mistake by getting in their way.

just looked again to refresh my memory and realized i had actually been underestimating the total the phillies would likely pay for cesar, dubes, and franco in 2020. it's over $24.5million, for crying out loud. impossible not to eat some of that while trading them, but saving 12-15 million shouldn't be pretty do-able, right?

Stripes wrote:

CFP wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:At this point, for 2021, the phillies have $95M in 6 players (assuming options are declined for Jake and Robertson) which includes $10M to Herrera which leaves whoever is the GM somewhere around $114M to build out the remaining roster and stay under the projected tax cap.

Yeah I think it's a real misnomer that Harper is some sort of crippling contract. Isn't his AAV 25? What they gave Howard nearly a decade ago, what they gave an aging Arrieta a few years ago. Even if you're adding Cole into this at let's say 30, and Realmuto at I dunno, 21, and Harper at 25, that's $76 million between three guys. There will be a $200 million payroll if it means trying to win a title. The GM will have money to spend.

Just a precautionary reminder, the current CBA expires prior to the 2021 season.

CBA expires December 2021.

SCPhillyPhan wrote:

Stripes wrote:

CFP wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:At this point, for 2021, the phillies have $95M in 6 players (assuming options are declined for Jake and Robertson) which includes $10M to Herrera which leaves whoever is the GM somewhere around $114M to build out the remaining roster and stay under the projected tax cap.

Yeah I think it's a real misnomer that Harper is some sort of crippling contract. Isn't his AAV 25? What they gave Howard nearly a decade ago, what they gave an aging Arrieta a few years ago. Even if you're adding Cole into this at let's say 30, and Realmuto at I dunno, 21, and Harper at 25, that's $76 million between three guys. There will be a $200 million payroll if it means trying to win a title. The GM will have money to spend.

Just a precautionary reminder, the current CBA expires prior to the 2021 season.

CBA expires December 2021.

I stand corrected!

Stripes wrote:

SCPhillyPhan wrote:

Stripes wrote:

CFP wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:At this point, for 2021, the phillies have $95M in 6 players (assuming options are declined for Jake and Robertson) which includes $10M to Herrera which leaves whoever is the GM somewhere around $114M to build out the remaining roster and stay under the projected tax cap.

Yeah I think it's a real misnomer that Harper is some sort of crippling contract. Isn't his AAV 25? What they gave Howard nearly a decade ago, what they gave an aging Arrieta a few years ago. Even if you're adding Cole into this at let's say 30, and Realmuto at I dunno, 21, and Harper at 25, that's $76 million between three guys. There will be a $200 million payroll if it means trying to win a title. The GM will have money to spend.

Just a precautionary reminder, the current CBA expires prior to the 2021 season.

CBA expires December 2021.

I stand corrected!

Totally not necessary. Sit down, put your feet up.

For whatever it is worth, I’m not guessing Hoskins is dealt because he’s unlikely to bounce back; in fact, I think there will be a general view (especially among analytic types) that he’s a great candidate to get back to a .900+ OPS, isn’t old, is cheap for several more years and even if he isn’t a star, he’s unlikely to be worse than the .819 OPS in the near future (i.e. limited downside) because of his OBP skills. However, he is 27 vs. Bohm at 23 and they both play the same position, so something has to give and if the Phillies can’t get Strasbourg or Cole, they need to get a pitcher somewhere.

I don't get wanting to trade Hoskins. Bohm could be a bust. And Hoskins is cheap and you'd be selling low on him. And you can just sign a free agent pitcher. There's like 10 good ones available in free agency and some of them are bound to be available at a discount.

Probably instructive that Hoskins was presented at the Girardi presser

There’s no doubt he wants to be a leader on the team just a question of production.

Was our 2nd youngest regular (3rd if Haseley was a "regular"), 2nd on team in HR, RBI, OBP. First in walks, and other than Harper, had more than any 2 players on the team combined.

I'd definitely keep unless someone blew me away, which they won't.

How do Japanese stats correlate to MLB? Anybody for Shogo Akiyama to play CF?

you just have to convert from metric to imperial

I'm a no go on Shogo.

Count me in then

just discovered that the fangraphs steamer projections actually seem to support the belief by some here that the phillies aren't very far from being a playoff team... as long as you assume that strasburg, rendon, donaldson, and keuchel and wheeler aren't particularly likely to stay with the nats and braves and mets. here are the projected fwar totals for returning players for the nleast contenders:
team pitchers hitters total gap-to-phils
phi ___12.2___20.4___ 32.6 ___xxxx (with replacement at just under 48 wins, this implies 80 wins in 2020)
atl___15.4___21.5___ 36.2 ___4.3 (about 84 wins)
was___19.0___18.0___ 37.0 ___4.4 (about 84 wins)
nym___20.9___19.9___ 40.8 ___8.2 (88 or 89 wins)

if the other three teams lose their fa's to non-nleast contenders, even ryu+odorizi+moose could put the phils in the lead...
if the phils plunder all three of the others by signing strasburg, donaldson, and wheeler, the others would have to not only keep their other fa's but also land at least one of the top-10 fa's to get back ahead of us.
on the other hand, the best way to avoid relying on the competition not signing good fa's remains spending $65-75million to sign cole+rendon+gibson (15.0 fwar) or cole+donaldson+wheeler (14.3 fwar). that is, it's the best option if you don't mind going at $5-15million over the luxury tax threshold (and that's after successfully dumping all of the contracts of dubes, cesar, maik, vv, and alvarez and the 4.0 fwar they are projected to be worth!)
fa steamer2020fwar
cole 6.5
rendon 5.5
donaldson 4.7
strasburg 4.3
wheeler 3.1
ryu 3.1
gibson
moustakas 2.8
keuchel 2.7
odorizi 2.5