Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 13:33:31

The B1G Piece wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:
The B1G Piece wrote:I'm officially 100 percent out on Kapler and whatever fucking group of nerds that trained him. The constant lack of feel for in game decisions, the mindless pitching changes and tinkering of the lineup to gain some sort of edge is infuriating.


Well put. I hadn't thought of it in these terms before but I agree. It almost seems sometimes he's trying to make some sort of contrarian point/be the smartest guy in the room rather than just using common sense.

Also, I apologize for calling the Driveline baseball guys nerds because I love numbers, too.

For a team that struggles to score runs consistently, please find a way to get your best hitter with RISP (Bryce Harper) as many PAs as possible in those situations. It's really not that hard. Instead, we get this...

“This is a game where it’s really important to not try harder in those situations,” Kapler said. “It’s important to breathe, relax and just take your ‘A’ swing. We can do a better job than we’ve been doing with runners in scoring position. One of the ways we can do that is to kind of cut down on our hacks and utilize a ‘B’ swing to put the ball in play, have barrel accuracy over trying to drive the ball.

“I’m not saying that anybody’s not taking the right approach, but what I am saying is there’s always ability to cut down a little bit and look to drive the ball into the outfield.”


I've been a bit back and forth on him. I was like, "My God, what kind of idiot have we hired," at the beginning of last year. Then by the 1/4 pole of this year I was happy he made some improvements and was willing to see it through. But his decision-making the past month has just been horrible. Worse, he has put players at physical risk numerous times, starting at the beginning of last year and right up to this week. I'm out on him.

Also, what do you think the chances are that the players are out on him, too? I mean, no player wants to be placed at a physical risk that's unnecessary. It can impact their careers and their ability to make tons of money. Players are also usually pretty traditional and at least some of them probably don't like this "advanced" managing approach. If it works, players get on board, but it has not. I would be very surprised if there isn't a growing number of players in the clubhouse who would like to see him gone. Plus, he's just a weirdo. I like weirdos personally, but I bet he's wearing on them.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby bleh » Wed Aug 07, 2019 13:33:39

ReadingPhilly wrote:they're 3 for 33 with the bases loaded since the start of july. 0 for 10 since friday. cost them a few wins.

Gabe's fault for not pinch hitting for them. Everything is Gabe's fault.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 13:37:51

bleh wrote:
ReadingPhilly wrote:they're 3 for 33 with the bases loaded since the start of july. 0 for 10 since friday. cost them a few wins.

Gabe's fault for not pinch hitting for them. Everything is Gabe's fault.



That's obviously not Gabe's fault, but that quote about cutting back on the swings (but he's not saying they aren't using the correct approach!!) is pretty dumb. He doesn't think they are doing anything wrong, but then he says they are doing something wrong. Which is it, Gabe?

Anyway, his fault or not, the axe falls on the manager when teams underperform to expectations. That's probably not fair, but what else can a GM do without taking the blame themselves?
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby MoBettle » Wed Aug 07, 2019 13:58:51

I just don’t see how a baseball manager can have this much of a negative impact. If he’s losing the clubhouse fine. Really even if not and they just want to change things up, really don’t care if he sticks around.

But I really doubt getting rid of him will really make a dent into making the team much better. Still left with a bad/hurt pitching staff.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby bleh » Wed Aug 07, 2019 14:05:08

Monkeyboy wrote:That's obviously not Gabe's fault, but that quote about cutting back on the swings (but he's not saying they aren't using the correct approach!!) is pretty dumb. He doesn't think they are doing anything wrong, but then he says they are doing something wrong. Which is it, Gabe?

He just doesn't want to sound like he was calling out the players, so he walked it back a little. He's giving sound bites to reporters. Who cares if it doesn't make sense. I doubt you scrutinized Charlie's answers all that much.

Anyway, his fault or not, the axe falls on the manager when teams underperform to expectations. That's probably not fair, but what else can a GM do without taking the blame themselves?

You're allowed to have a different opinion from the GM.

Also they're still on pace for 85 wins, which is what everyone's expectations was outside of Philly fans. Maybe your expectations was the problem.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby philliesphhan » Wed Aug 07, 2019 14:17:39

phorever wrote:it is august 7th, well into the dog days, and scott kingery (325pa) leads bryce harper (497pa) in ave, iso, slg, ops, woba, wrc+, and offensive war (batting + baserunning). good news is we've gotten about the same total production out of the two of them as expected...


BABip doesn't explain it all but Kingery's has been very, very high .361 for the year and monthly numbers of .440 .435 .353 .281 and .444 so far in August
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby smitty » Wed Aug 07, 2019 14:38:47

philliesphhan wrote:
phorever wrote:it is august 7th, well into the dog days, and scott kingery (325pa) leads bryce harper (497pa) in ave, iso, slg, ops, woba, wrc+, and offensive war (batting + baserunning). good news is we've gotten about the same total production out of the two of them as expected...


BABip doesn't explain it all but Kingery's has been very, very high .361 for the year and monthly numbers of .440 .435 .353 .281 and .444 so far in August


BABIP is everything. We need to keep this guy.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 15:12:52

bleh wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:That's obviously not Gabe's fault, but that quote about cutting back on the swings (but he's not saying they aren't using the correct approach!!) is pretty dumb. He doesn't think they are doing anything wrong, but then he says they are doing something wrong. Which is it, Gabe?

He just doesn't want to sound like he was calling out the players, so he walked it back a little. He's giving sound bites to reporters. Who cares if it doesn't make sense. I doubt you scrutinized Charlie's answers all that much.

Anyway, his fault or not, the axe falls on the manager when teams underperform to expectations. That's probably not fair, but what else can a GM do without taking the blame themselves?

You're allowed to have a different opinion from the GM.

Also they're still on pace for 85 wins, which is what everyone's expectations was outside of Philly fans. Maybe your expectations was the problem.


I think if you go back and check the prediction thread, I said around 85-87 games. For this comment in this thread, I was referring to the predictions of the city and what the expressed expectations of management were. Maybe they were just trying to sell tickets though. I didn't think we improved as much as people were saying and I remember taking some heat for it here.

I don't really care what he said to the media. I was just piling on a bit because I think it is a dumb comment. I do care that he has placed players at risk because of bad decisions and I do care if he loses the clubhouse. So feel free to criticize those thoughts as you see fit. You're right that I didn't criticize Charlie's comments much, at least not that I remember, but then I never really felt like Charlie was BSing people like he thought they were stupid. I agree Kapler was walking back his comments. Maybe he shouldn't have said them in the first place.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 15:15:46

philliesphhan wrote:
phorever wrote:it is august 7th, well into the dog days, and scott kingery (325pa) leads bryce harper (497pa) in ave, iso, slg, ops, woba, wrc+, and offensive war (batting + baserunning). good news is we've gotten about the same total production out of the two of them as expected...


BABip doesn't explain it all but Kingery's has been very, very high .361 for the year and monthly numbers of .440 .435 .353 .281 and .444 so far in August


I said something about that a month or so ago and said that it wouldn't keep up that way and we should expect him to return to Earth, but then he just went ahead and started doing it again. I haven;t looked at his hit chart, maybe he's spraying the ball around? That could help keep it high, but is hardly the whole story. Hopefully he isn't just lucky, or if he is hopefully he's lucky forever.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby mtcal » Wed Aug 07, 2019 15:16:27

this is all a whole lot easier when you stop trying to listen to what kapler is saying.
Not everything I think is something I should say.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Aug 07, 2019 15:19:58

mtcal wrote:this is all a whole lot easier when you stop trying to listen to what kapler is saying.


fortunately for me, I don't think I've seen a press conference all year, just a few clips here and there in articles or game wrap-ups.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Titlehungry » Wed Aug 07, 2019 15:20:33

I don't so much think Kapler is having a negative impact as much as he's not having a positive impact
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Brantt » Wed Aug 07, 2019 15:20:47

MoBettle wrote:I just don’t see how a baseball manager can have this much of a negative impact. If he’s losing the clubhouse fine. Really even if not and they just want to change things up, really don’t care if he sticks around.

But I really doubt getting rid of him will really make a dent into making the team much better. Still left with a bad/hurt pitching staff.


For the most part I have been a pretty big Kapler defender, but I'm now done.

The decision to keep Chris Young as pitching coach over Kranitz has been a disaster. I'm sure Klentak was involved but that is ultimately on Gabe. The team doesn't consistently play hard. The inability to beat the Marlins this year has been an embarrassment.

I just don't see what he brings to the table. What does he do well? He's just a guy who is there at this point. Try to hire someone better.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby ReadingPhilly » Wed Aug 07, 2019 15:21:48

the young/kranitz crying continues to baffle me.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby The B1G Piece » Wed Aug 07, 2019 15:59:04

bleh wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:That's obviously not Gabe's fault, but that quote about cutting back on the swings (but he's not saying they aren't using the correct approach!!) is pretty dumb. He doesn't think they are doing anything wrong, but then he says they are doing something wrong. Which is it, Gabe?

He just doesn't want to sound like he was calling out the players, so he walked it back a little. He's giving sound bites to reporters. Who cares if it doesn't make sense. I doubt you scrutinized Charlie's answers all that much.

Anyway, his fault or not, the axe falls on the manager when teams underperform to expectations. That's probably not fair, but what else can a GM do without taking the blame themselves?

You're allowed to have a different opinion from the GM.

Also they're still on pace for 85 wins, which is what everyone's expectations was outside of Philly fans. Maybe your expectations was the problem.

Fair points, but they're 26-30 since June 1 and nothing seems to indicate things they will be anything more than .500 team the rest of the season. If they followed that same pace through the rest of the season, they'd be 82-82. That could be the difference between being a wild card team and finishing in 4th place in the NL East.

I'd feel differently if he didn't tinker the lineup and bullpen to death like he did last year and they were 10 games under .500 after June 1st last season. And, even more so if the front office didn't feed Bob Nightengale a story today that they love him.

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby MoBettle » Wed Aug 07, 2019 16:39:07

Brantt wrote:
MoBettle wrote:I just don’t see how a baseball manager can have this much of a negative impact. If he’s losing the clubhouse fine. Really even if not and they just want to change things up, really don’t care if he sticks around.

But I really doubt getting rid of him will really make a dent into making the team much better. Still left with a bad/hurt pitching staff.


For the most part I have been a pretty big Kapler defender, but I'm now done.

The decision to keep Chris Young as pitching coach over Kranitz has been a disaster. I'm sure Klentak was involved but that is ultimately on Gabe. The team doesn't consistently play hard. The inability to beat the Marlins this year has been an embarrassment.

I just don't see what he brings to the table. What does he do well? He's just a guy who is there at this point. Try to hire someone better.

My point is more that the next guy isn’t all that likely to be that much better.

It would be great if they hired a great pitching coach to polish the turds that were In the back end of the rotation but it’s also possible they were just always going to be turds. Kranitz was here last year as I recall, they still turned back into turds at the end.

This is much more about the level of talent on the team than it is the guy filing out the lineup card.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Slowhand » Wed Aug 07, 2019 16:41:45

Jake not happy, says FIRE KAPLER (not really).

“I still feel like I would like to have gone one more,” he said. “I told them I’d like to stay in and they decided to pinch-hit for me. Q had a hit. He did his job. After that point, it got away from us the sixth through the eighth.

“There’s going to be times when it’s smart to take me out and times when it’s smart to let me go even though it's not comfortable. I would have liked one more.

"But it’s all right. They earned the win tonight. They just beat us. Just one of those nights when they grinded it out a little better than we did.”
How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!

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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby MattFoley » Wed Aug 07, 2019 16:45:40

ReadingPhilly wrote:they're 3 for 33 with the bases loaded since the start of july. 0 for 10 since friday. cost them a few wins.


Thanks for those numbers. When it happened last night (with Hoskins and Harper striking out) I questioned (in the game thread) how many times they have left the bases loaded because it seemed to be a bunch. Now I know, it wasn't just me thinking negative.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby Stripes » Wed Aug 07, 2019 16:46:31

JFLNYC wrote:
The B1G Piece wrote:I'm officially 100 percent out on Kapler and whatever fucking group of nerds that trained him. The constant lack of feel for in game decisions, the mindless pitching changes and tinkering of the lineup to gain some sort of edge is infuriating.


Well put. I hadn't thought of it in these terms before but I agree. It almost seems sometimes he's trying to make some sort of contrarian point/be the smartest guy in the room rather than just using common sense.


Feels like a lot of decisions are made just to win that day's game, and not for the long haul. That's fine for the players to be focused just on that game, that AB, that pitch, but management has to look at the long view, know when to rest players so they're effective for the entire season, not burning thru the bullpen every night. You can't convince me that Kapler's bullpen usage hasn't at least contributed to some of the injuries, although it would be impossible to quantify. Of course, having half our current bullpen comprised of failed starters, who aren't available back-to-back nights, goes higher than Kapler. I remember last year, when he was managing the bullpen every game like it was the seventh game of the WS, people said he would burn out the pen by August. It took a bit longer than that, but here we are.
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Re: Phillies 2019 Discussion III: The Dog Days of Bummer

Postby BigEd76 » Wed Aug 07, 2019 16:49:33

jaysonst
Here are those #Phillies RISP numbers I just mentioned to @MikeMiss975 on @975TheFanatic

Since 7/1:
.231 RISP AVG
Only team in MLB with more K than RBIs with RISP
Just 3 HR with RISP - the #Braves have 14!

Bryce Harper 0-for-last 11 with RISP
Rhys Hoskins 0-for-last 12

And here are the Bryce Harper numbers from my appearance with @MikeMiss975

29-13 when he drives in a run (30-41 when he doesn't)
14-5 when he homers (41-53 when he doesn't)
29-11 when he gets an XBH (30-43 when he doesn't)

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