Phillies sign Jake Arrieta to 3-year $75 million deal

by **Shore** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 19:51:02

We were in 14th place out of 15 teams, 21 games out of the wild card.

We need a win and a half extra out of every lineup spot (12) plus another extra win and a half out of each rotation sport (7.5) and another couple extra out of the bullpen and bench. And you need the bar to stay the same, rather than someone like the brewers making it 90 wins for the 2nd wildcard.

We’re not going 14-for-14 with improvements.

If we can get both Machado and Harper, then we’re talking.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:08:53

Todd Zolecki @ToddZolecki
Carlos Santana said a smiling Gabe Kapler told him about Jake Arrieta's contract agreement with the Phillies before the game.

by **smitty** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:31:27

Last season, the Phils were six games better than their actual record (according to my friend Pythagorean). They improved that club with Free Agents and full seasons from young guys like Hoskins, Altherrr, Crawford and others. Quinn could be very valuable. Santana was a nice add. Alfaro and Knapp could be pretty good or better. Arrietta has Ace potential. But he's on his way down. With luck, he might have a couple good years left. He's definitely a late bloomer.

This is very optimistic. But I believe the Phils will be a good club. Maybe a contender.

by **Shadow** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:32:35

Shore wrote:We were in 14th place out of 15 teams, 21 games out of the wild card.

We need a win and a half extra out of every lineup spot (12) plus another extra win and a half out of each rotation sport (7.5) and another couple extra out of the bullpen and bench. And you need the bar to stay the same, rather than someone like the brewers making it 90 wins for the 2nd wildcard.

We’re not going 14-for-14 with improvements.

If we can get both Machado and Harper, then we’re talking.

Progress in sports really doesn't work like that. Using previous seasons as a barometer for incremental progression. It's more effective to look at it in a vacuum, because a lot of factors play into a team's win total. Last season the Phillies were sellers at the deadline and shut down players due to injury they otherwise may not have. And they had very little of Hoskins.

The lineup is loaded, you'd expect natural improvement from the young players, a full season of Hoskins. Their lineup is pretty loaded and they have the best bullpen in the division. If Vinny and Eickhoff pitch well this season they'll absolutely be in the running for a WC spot. And they will likely have Kingery not too long after the season starts.

If they get Harper and Machado we're talking World Series at that point, not just playoffs.

by **CFP** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:35:42

19 games against the Marlins sure doesn’t hurt the case

by **Bill McNeal** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:35:49

Shore wrote:We were in 14th place out of 15 teams, 21 games out of the wild card.

We need a win and a half extra out of every lineup spot (12) plus another extra win and a half out of each rotation sport (7.5) and another couple extra out of the bullpen and bench. And you need the bar to stay the same, rather than someone like the brewers making it 90 wins for the 2nd wildcard.

We’re not going 14-for-14 with improvements.

If we can get both Machado and Harper, then we’re talking.

Yes, this. The Phillies are going to be watchable this year, which is great! They’ve got a legit shot of finishing over .500 and that’s my happy expectation going into the season. If literally everything goes right for us and everything goes wrong for the nats, and the Mets fail to pass around their one collectively healthy UCL amongst their pitchers, maybe we’ll be in the race in August.

by **jimglitto** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:39:36

Shore wrote:We were in 14th place out of 15 teams, 21 games out of the wild card.

We need a win and a half extra out of every lineup spot (12) plus another extra win and a half out of each rotation sport (7.5) and another couple extra out of the bullpen and bench. And you need the bar to stay the same, rather than someone like the brewers making it 90 wins for the 2nd wildcard.

We’re not going 14-for-14 with improvements.

If we can get both Machado and Harper, then we’re talking.

First post in a long time, but this one moved me to jump in.
This kind of logic drives me nuts. We don’t start the year with last year’s record. So we don’t have to make up losses that haven’t occurred. It is not the same team that started the year or finished the year. Hopefully, the team learned things over he course of the season (like how to win), and individuals have improved. If so, they start the season already “better”than the record they finished with.

So, no offense, I just think that’s beyond silly. With that kind of thinking, the Cubs and Astros never would have been able to mak up all the losses they had for years.

by **Bill McNeal** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:41:09

he lineup is loaded, you'd expect natural improvement from the young players, a full season of Hoskins. Their lineup is pretty loaded

Wha? Last year we scored 4.26 runs per game, which was fourth fewest in the majors. I’m expecting improvement, but you must be loaded if you think this lineup is loaded.

by **CFP** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:43:06

Bill McNeal wrote:
he lineup is loaded, you'd expect natural improvement from the young players, a full season of Hoskins. Their lineup is pretty loaded

Wha? Last year we scored 4.26 runs per game, which was fourth fewest in the majors. I’m expecting improvement, but you must be loaded if you think this lineup is loaded.

Loaded might not be the right word, but the second half was legitimately exciting, and right off the bat you’ve got a SS who should OBP at least .335-340 instead of .290. And a first baseman who should get on base at a nice clip. And the full year of Rhys.

by **Shadow** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:44:51

Bill McNeal wrote:
he lineup is loaded, you'd expect natural improvement from the young players, a full season of Hoskins. Their lineup is pretty loaded

Wha? Last year we scored 4.26 runs per game, which was fourth fewest in the majors. I’m expecting improvement, but you must be loaded if you think this lineup is loaded.

Last season is irrelevant. Why do people keep bringing up last season?

Most baseball people project them to be in the top half of MLB in runs scored with the projected 2018 lineup.

Who don't you like in their projected lineup? The only real question mark I see if Franco, but he'll likely be replaced by Kingery eventually anyway.

by **CFP** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:51:34

You can’t call last season irrelevant then cite people projecting them to score a certain number of runs. Those projection systems on many baseball sites are based on previous performance.

by **phillychuck** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 20:54:12

The effectiveness of the lineup hinges on Franco and the catching trio. They have no reasonable, obvious alternative if Franco stinks like feet again (maybe Cesar and Kingery in some combination at 3B and 2B, but that mixes things up at 2 positions). And the catching could be a black hole offensively and below average defensively.

I'm pretty confident in the OF, and we have alternatives there. Crawford should at least OBP well, and Santana is a solid, reliable veteran. The staff is actually pretty encouraging, if just two of the young guys can put it together (and we can figure out which two to put on the 25). The pen is very deep. Yep, comes down to Franco and C's.

by **thephan** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 21:00:54

Eagles putting some pressure on the Phils. Good move.

by **Bucky** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 21:02:00

if they couldn't do it to brady might as well take it on on the phils!

by **WilliamC** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 21:02:13

A lot will hinge on Franco for sure, PC.

I am betting on a good season. I like both the big moves and also...Altherr-STAY HEALTHY!

by **Bucky** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 21:06:12

guys, optimism is awesome, but the computer numbers projections are rooted in truth. So please don't denigrate it, especially if you don't have a good understanding.

That being said, projections are just that- projections. On the whole they pan out pretty close, but of course there is the opportunity to exceed the projections (sometimes vastly, see 1993) and sometimes under. Me? I expect the players and team to be better than their computer numbers, but that's called 'optimism'. It's not rooted in any provable data. I do believe we have reasons to be optimistic.

by **iladelph53** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 21:14:27

Bill McNeal wrote:
he lineup is loaded, you'd expect natural improvement from the young players, a full season of Hoskins. Their lineup is pretty loaded

Wha? Last year we scored 4.26 runs per game, which was fourth fewest in the majors. I’m expecting improvement, but you must be loaded if you think this lineup is loaded.

4.77 in second half fwiw

by **Woody** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 21:14:39

I think we’ll all be thrilled if they keep it interesting into late summer

by **Werthless** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 21:16:52

CFP wrote:You can’t call last season irrelevant then cite people projecting them to score a certain number of runs. Those projection systems on many baseball sites are based on previous performance.

We're not giving Tommy Joseph and Freddy Galvis 1196 plate appearances. That's why it's less useful to point to last year's Phils, because they are different people with better hitting skills. The projections demonstrate that.

by **phillychuck** » Sun Mar 11, 2018 21:19:39

Werthless wrote:
CFP wrote:You can’t call last season irrelevant then cite people projecting them to score a certain number of runs. Those projection systems on many baseball sites are based on previous performance.

We're not giving Tommy Joseph and Freddy Galvis 1196 plate appearances. That's why it's less useful to point to last year's Phils, because they are different people with better hitting skills. The projections demonstrate that.

I'm also betting that if Franco plays like last year his plate appearances will be reduced, too. Not sure who will take them is all...

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