Shore wrote:

Squire wrote:I get using last year as a baseline but then you have to include the delta in Hoskins ABs over ToJo's 1st half ABs. And Alfaro over Rupp. And Williams/Altherr over Saunders. This was an entirely different team in the second half because it had entirely different players.

Alfaro is not anywhere NEAR guaranteed to be better than Rupp. Many people expect him to fail. Same with Williams, and with Altherr.

You also have to take the delta in 2018 Hoskins vs 2017 Hoskins. I *LOVE* Hoskins, but his 50 game numbers, projected to 150 games, are 54 homers, 144 RBI, and a 1.014 OPS. If he hits .280/.370/.540, for a .910 OPS, with 37 homers and 110 RBI, a GREAT season, it's a step backward, production-wise, from his amazing 50 games last year.

We can't just erase the bad crap, and not take into account the unlikely-to-repeat good stuff. Hoskins will be good, but I don't think he's going to maintain that pace.

Squire wrote:I will also admit that even though I definitely think that Santana and Arrieta are worth losing 2nd and 3rd round picks, the fact that I am not entirely sold on Johnny Almaraz only emboldens my view on the signings.

Eem wrote:I'm thrilled they're going for a competitive season. I give absolutely zero fucks about the money and the length is excellent. Glad they're spending money and it won't hurt them in any way whatsoever

my cousin mose wrote:

Eem wrote:I'm thrilled they're going for a competitive season. I give absolutely zero fucks about the money and the length is excellent. Glad they're spending money and it won't hurt them in any way whatsoever

joe table wrote:Deal is cleverly structured. Not only the frontloaded AAV (which nerds have been clamoring for for years) but the rights upon opt out are interesting /potentially valuable

iladelph53 wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:

he lineup is loaded, you'd expect natural improvement from the young players, a full season of Hoskins. Their lineup is pretty loaded

Wha? Last year we scored 4.26 runs per game, which was fourth fewest in the majors. I’m expecting improvement, but you must be loaded if you think this lineup is loaded.

4.77 in second half fwiw

jerseyhoya wrote:Giving a shit about the outcome of Phillies games in July or August would be fantastic.

Eem wrote:I honestly feel like there is about zero downside to this deal. It's chump change even if he sucks

The tandem of Aaron Nola and the 32-year-old Arrieta gives Philadelphia a dynamic 1-2 punch. Nine teams have a pair of starters in the top 30 of fWAR since 2015: the Astros, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Indians, Mets, Nationals, Red Sox and now the Phillies. All of them, except Philadelphia, have made the playoffs in the last two seasons, including last two World Series champions.

swishnicholson wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Giving a shit about the outcome of Phillies games in July or August would be fantastic.

Some of us don't have sense enough not to do that anyway, but I know what you mean.

I think this makes us better, but probably not better than we would have been had one of our young pitchers performed beyond expectations. I was hoping for that to happen, and now I'm also hoping that Arrieta will have a solid season. One or the other will probably help make us better than last year, and both happening should almost certainly do so . But it's still based on hope, not expectation. I could certainly see all of our younger pitchers not coming through and Arrieta continuing to decline. But I hope not, and our chances are better since we have another horse to bet on.

SCPhillyPhan wrote:

iladelph53 wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:

he lineup is loaded, you'd expect natural improvement from the young players, a full season of Hoskins. Their lineup is pretty loaded

Wha? Last year we scored 4.26 runs per game, which was fourth fewest in the majors. I’m expecting improvement, but you must be loaded if you think this lineup is loaded.

4.77 in second half fwiw

That was 10th in all of baseball, 11 runs behind the Astros. And Santana replaces one of Williams and Altherr in the lineup.

Shore wrote:

SCPhillyPhan wrote:

iladelph53 wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:

he lineup is loaded, you'd expect natural improvement from the young players, a full season of Hoskins. Their lineup is pretty loaded

Wha? Last year we scored 4.26 runs per game, which was fourth fewest in the majors. I’m expecting improvement, but you must be loaded if you think this lineup is loaded.

4.77 in second half fwiw

That was 10th in all of baseball, 11 runs behind the Astros. And Santana replaces one of Williams and Altherr in the lineup.

Santana is 32, with an .818 OPS last year, .810 for his career.

Williams was .811 last year, and Altherr .856, and they're 24 and 27.

I like Santana, but it's not like his expected production fills some gaping hole we had last year.

We average 3.8 runs per game in the first half. In the 2nd half, it was 3.7 when Hoskins didn't homer, and 7.2 when he did. Hoping he doesn't have to homer for us to have a chance.