The idea Arrieta had a significant step back last year is weird. There was a paradigm shift in baseball last year, if you compare year over year you are not looking at results indicative of performance.

phillychuck wrote:

Werthless wrote:

CFP wrote:You can’t call last season irrelevant then cite people projecting them to score a certain number of runs. Those projection systems on many baseball sites are based on previous performance.

We're not giving Tommy Joseph and Freddy Galvis 1196 plate appearances. That's why it's less useful to point to last year's Phils, because they are different people with better hitting skills. The projections demonstrate that.

I'm also betting that if Franco plays like last year his plate appearances will be reduced, too. Not sure who will take them is all...

Kingery

The Nightman Cometh wrote:The idea Arrieta had a significant step back last year is weird. There was a paradigm shift in baseball last year, if you compare year over year you are not looking at results indicative of performance.

He lost two mph across the board, which is cause for concern no matter what the league did.

ReadingPhilly wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:The idea Arrieta had a significant step back last year is weird. There was a paradigm shift in baseball last year, if you compare year over year you are not looking at results indicative of performance.

He lost two mph across the board, which is cause for concern no matter what the league did.

He had a nagging hamstring injury. Hard to say if that velocity will come back, but if he's in the range of a 125 era + he is worth 75 million all day.

jimglitto wrote:

Shore wrote:We were in 14th place out of 15 teams, 21 games out of the wild card.

We need a win and a half extra out of every lineup spot (12) plus another extra win and a half out of each rotation sport (7.5) and another couple extra out of the bullpen and bench. And you need the bar to stay the same, rather than someone like the brewers making it 90 wins for the 2nd wildcard.

We’re not going 14-for-14 with improvements.

If we can get both Machado and Harper, then we’re talking.

First post in a long time, but this one moved me to jump in.
This kind of logic drives me nuts. We don’t start the year with last year’s record. So we don’t have to make up losses that haven’t occurred. It is not the same team that started the year or finished the year. Hopefully, the team learned things over he course of the season (like how to win), and individuals have improved. If so, they start the season already “better”than the record they finished with.

So, no offense, I just think that’s beyond silly. With that kind of thinking, the Cubs and Astros never would have been able to mak up all the losses they had for years.

None taken. But you're wrong. Last year is a baseline. If we do nothing, but expect different results... well, you know the rest. So we've made some moves. As have others. It changes things, but everyone starts from their baseline. If the Rockies were 21 games better than us last year, and we did nothing, and they did nothing, we'd be insane to believe that we'd finish ahead of them this year, just because it's a fresh year.

This absolutely doesn't exclude things like the Cubs and Astros... The Cubs won 73 games in 2014, then won 97 in 2015, a 24 game jump, the same kind of jump we'd need to make the playoffs. How'd they do it? They replaced half their lineup with top-flight players (Bryant, Russell, Fowler, Schwarber), added Jon Lester to their rotation, and Jake Arrieta went from pitching 150 good innings to 229 great innings. Lester and Arrieta combined for almost 300 innings "new innings" from 2014, that had gone to Edwin Jackson (6-15, 6.33 ERA) and Travis Wood (5.03 ERA in 31 starts). The 4 new hitters plus Lester, vs the black holes that were there before, were probably close to 15 wins of improvement. Arrieta was nearly 4 games better himself. They were 5 games "luckier", as well.

They made changes to their team that made them better. They didn't just start a new, fresh season, and happen to do better. They removed bad players and replaced them with good.

Right, but what is the opportunity cost to signing Arrieta on a presumably front loaded deal?

thephan wrote:Eagles putting some pressure on the Phils. Good move.

this is what i thought - middleton was getting annoyed and poked matt. assured him he'd still be able to get manny, bryce, and trout.

Thanks to the ‘gees for keeping us grounded. [QUOTE=“Ballpark_Frankx”]This is big contract for Arrieta. There's no way I project him to be much more than a 1-2 year flash which is really what they're paying for now. I feel much the same way about Darvish... I can see that deal going downhill fast. But the Cubs needed to bolster the rotation so they did.

But for the Phillies, guarantee this will handcuff them at some point. So I don't really mind Arrieta being in the mix given that he's making $25 Mill a year. He can be the Phils version of Zach Greinke.[/QUOTE]

mtcal wrote:

thephan wrote:Eagles putting some pressure on the Phils. Good move.

this is what i thought - middleton was getting annoyed and poked matt. assured him he'd still be able to get manny, bryce, and trout.

what about kershaw?

Some pitchers base their approach off of power pitches and mix in off speed stuff to be successful. Other pitchers go at it the other way around. It seems that in the second half of last season Arrieta did it the latter way. If he can keep that going, he may well earn his contract. Jamie Moyer was successful with less velocity than Arrieta has at this point in his career. Hopefully Arrieta can mirror Moyer.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:The idea Arrieta had a significant step back last year is weird. There was a paradigm shift in baseball last year, if you compare year over year you are not looking at results indicative of performance.

He made 1 fewer start, but threw 29 fewer innings than in 2016, which was 2 fewer starts but 32 fewer innings than 2015. His IP/GS has gone from 6.93 to 6.37 to 5.61 over the last 3 years.

His ERA from 2015-2017 is 1.77, 3.10, 3.53
His WHIP is 0.865, 1.084, 1.218
His FIP is 2.35, 3.52, 4.16
His H/9 is 5.9, 6.3, 8.0
His BB/9 is 1.9, 3.5, 2.9
His K/9 is 9.3, 8.7, 8.7
His HR/9 is 0.4, 0.7, 1.2

He's pitching fewer innings per start, in fewer starts, allowing more hits, far more homers, with fewer strikeouts, and allowing more runs. That's not a weird interpretation, it's a pretty basic declining graph.

I hope he's halfway between 2016 and 2017, with the workload of 2016, and results of 2017. That would be just fine with me. 190+ innings, #2 starter type results. But it's really hard to avoid seeing the current trend.

I will also admit that even though I definitely think that Santana and Arrieta are worth losing 2nd and 3rd round picks, the fact that I am not entirely sold on Johnny Almaraz only emboldens my view on the signings.

Shore wrote:

jimglitto wrote:

Shore wrote:We were in 14th place out of 15 teams, 21 games out of the wild card.

We need a win and a half extra out of every lineup spot (12) plus another extra win and a half out of each rotation sport (7.5) and another couple extra out of the bullpen and bench. And you need the bar to stay the same, rather than someone like the brewers making it 90 wins for the 2nd wildcard.

We’re not going 14-for-14 with improvements.

If we can get both Machado and Harper, then we’re talking.

First post in a long time, but this one moved me to jump in.
This kind of logic drives me nuts. We don’t start the year with last year’s record. So we don’t have to make up losses that haven’t occurred. It is not the same team that started the year or finished the year. Hopefully, the team learned things over he course of the season (like how to win), and individuals have improved. If so, they start the season already “better”than the record they finished with.

So, no offense, I just think that’s beyond silly. With that kind of thinking, the Cubs and Astros never would have been able to mak up all the losses they had for years.

None taken. But you're wrong. Last year is a baseline. If we do nothing, but expect different results... well, you know the rest. So we've made some moves. As have others. It changes things, but everyone starts from their baseline. If the Rockies were 21 games better than us last year, and we did nothing, and they did nothing, we'd be insane to believe that we'd finish ahead of them this year, just because it's a fresh year.

This absolutely doesn't exclude things like the Cubs and Astros... The Cubs won 73 games in 2014, then won 97 in 2015, a 24 game jump, the same kind of jump we'd need to make the playoffs. How'd they do it? They replaced half their lineup with top-flight players (Bryant, Russell, Fowler, Schwarber), added Jon Lester to their rotation, and Jake Arrieta went from pitching 150 good innings to 229 great innings. Lester and Arrieta combined for almost 300 innings "new innings" from 2014, that had gone to Edwin Jackson (6-15, 6.33 ERA) and Travis Wood (5.03 ERA in 31 starts). The 4 new hitters plus Lester, vs the black holes that were there before, were probably close to 15 wins of improvement. Arrieta was nearly 4 games better himself. They were 5 games "luckier", as well.

They made changes to their team that made them better. They didn't just start a new, fresh season, and happen to do better. They removed bad players and replaced them with good.

Well, no doubt. I’m not saying the 2018 Phillies are the 2015 Cubs, but they’re not the 2017 Phillies either. They do start fresh. And I doubt before 2015 started you saw the 24 game improvement. If you were like me, you saw a lot of improvement and thought they can contend, and if things broke right, who knows? Baselines are for GMs to help determine what they need to do to improve. A team is not tied to that to start the year, so counting up wins and losses by acquisitions can't really be done. Confidence counts for something, other teams regressing counts for something. You can’t put these things in a spreadsheet and add it all up. No, a new season plays out on its own. And I start every season looking to go 162-0 (and then adjust downward, usually rapidly).

CFP wrote:You can’t call last season irrelevant then cite people projecting them to score a certain number of runs. Those projection systems on many baseball sites are based on previous performance.

I wasn't referring to projection systems. Just people who really know the game.

Shore wrote:

The Nightman Cometh wrote:The idea Arrieta had a significant step back last year is weird. There was a paradigm shift in baseball last year, if you compare year over year you are not looking at results indicative of performance.

He made 1 fewer start, but threw 29 fewer innings than in 2016, which was 2 fewer starts but 32 fewer innings than 2015. His IP/GS has gone from 6.93 to 6.37 to 5.61 over the last 3 years.

His ERA from 2015-2017 is 1.77, 3.10, 3.53
His WHIP is 0.865, 1.084, 1.218
His FIP is 2.35, 3.52, 4.16
His H/9 is 5.9, 6.3, 8.0
His BB/9 is 1.9, 3.5, 2.9
His K/9 is 9.3, 8.7, 8.7
His HR/9 is 0.4, 0.7, 1.2

He's pitching fewer innings per start, in fewer starts, allowing more hits, far more homers, with fewer strikeouts, and allowing more runs. That's not a weird interpretation, it's a pretty basic declining graph.

I hope he's halfway between 2016 and 2017, with the workload of 2016, and results of 2017. That would be just fine with me. 190+ innings, #2 starter type results. But it's really hard to avoid seeing the current trend.

I think a number of the stats you have cited are encouraging, but even if not, what is the opportunity cost to this signing? I don't see a better allocation of resources that this signing prevents either this year or the following two.

Shore wrote:

jimglitto wrote:

Shore wrote:We were in 14th place out of 15 teams, 21 games out of the wild card.

We need a win and a half extra out of every lineup spot (12) plus another extra win and a half out of each rotation sport (7.5) and another couple extra out of the bullpen and bench. And you need the bar to stay the same, rather than someone like the brewers making it 90 wins for the 2nd wildcard.

We’re not going 14-for-14 with improvements.

If we can get both Machado and Harper, then we’re talking.

First post in a long time, but this one moved me to jump in.
This kind of logic drives me nuts. We don’t start the year with last year’s record. So we don’t have to make up losses that haven’t occurred. It is not the same team that started the year or finished the year. Hopefully, the team learned things over he course of the season (like how to win), and individuals have improved. If so, they start the season already “better”than the record they finished with.

So, no offense, I just think that’s beyond silly. With that kind of thinking, the Cubs and Astros never would have been able to mak up all the losses they had for years.

None taken. But you're wrong. Last year is a baseline. If we do nothing, but expect different results... well, you know the rest. So we've made some moves. As have others. It changes things, but everyone starts from their baseline. If the Rockies were 21 games better than us last year, and we did nothing, and they did nothing, we'd be insane to believe that we'd finish ahead of them this year, just because it's a fresh year.

This absolutely doesn't exclude things like the Cubs and Astros... The Cubs won 73 games in 2014, then won 97 in 2015, a 24 game jump, the same kind of jump we'd need to make the playoffs. How'd they do it? They replaced half their lineup with top-flight players (Bryant, Russell, Fowler, Schwarber), added Jon Lester to their rotation, and Jake Arrieta went from pitching 150 good innings to 229 great innings. Lester and Arrieta combined for almost 300 innings "new innings" from 2014, that had gone to Edwin Jackson (6-15, 6.33 ERA) and Travis Wood (5.03 ERA in 31 starts). The 4 new hitters plus Lester, vs the black holes that were there before, were probably close to 15 wins of improvement. Arrieta was nearly 4 games better himself. They were 5 games "luckier", as well.

They made changes to their team that made them better. They didn't just start a new, fresh season, and happen to do better. They removed bad players and replaced them with good.

Well I think part of the issue here is that the Phillies didn't remain a constant roster throughout last year. They upgraded several spots in the order inseason, which is part of the reason why they went from god awful pre all star break to a .500 team post. You're building on a lineup that was bashing the crap out of the ball in August and September not the anemic one from April-June.

I get using last year as a baseline but then you have to include the delta in Hoskins ABs over ToJo's 1st half ABs. And Alfaro over Rupp. And Williams/Altherr over Saunders. This was an entirely different team in the second half because it had entirely different players.

Shadow wrote:

CFP wrote:You can’t call last season irrelevant then cite people projecting them to score a certain number of runs. Those projection systems on many baseball sites are based on previous performance.

I wasn't referring to projection systems. Just people who really know the game.

Like who?

Vegas?

ODDS TO WIN 2018 NATIONAL LEAGUE PENNANT (11/1/18)
Team Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers 5/2
Washington Nationals 7/2
Chicago Cubs 4/1
St. Louis Cardinals 10/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 12/1
New York Mets 12/1
Milwaukee Brewers 14/1
San Francisco Giants 14/1
Colorado Rockies 16/1
Philadelphia Phillies 25/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 40/1
Atlanta Braves 50/1
Cincinnati Reds 50/1
San Diego Padres 50/1
Miami Marlins 125/1

I think they have my list of who we're better than, plus Atlanta. I'm sure Ace has better/more updated Vegas numbers, this is just what I could find.

I'm thrilled they're going for a competitive season. I give absolutely zero fucks about the money and the length is excellent. Glad they're spending money and it won't hurt them in any way whatsoever

Squire wrote:I get using last year as a baseline but then you have to include the delta in Hoskins ABs over ToJo's 1st half ABs. And Alfaro over Rupp. And Williams/Altherr over Saunders. This was an entirely different team in the second half because it had entirely different players.

Alfaro is not anywhere NEAR guaranteed to be better than Rupp. Many people expect him to fail. Same with Williams, and with Altherr.

You also have to take the delta in 2018 Hoskins vs 2017 Hoskins. I *LOVE* Hoskins, but his 50 game numbers, projected to 150 games, are 54 homers, 144 RBI, and a 1.014 OPS. If he hits .280/.370/.540, for a .910 OPS, with 37 homers and 110 RBI, a GREAT season, it's a step backward, production-wise, from his amazing 50 games last year.

We can't just erase the bad crap, and not take into account the unlikely-to-repeat good stuff. Hoskins will be good, but I don't think he's going to maintain that pace.