he has bad opinions and is probably getting worse but I’d have been pretty pissed if the Phils didn’t open up the checkbook this year. worthwhile low-risk deal with potential for high reward, especially as an overture for next FA season

he has bad opinions and is probably getting worse but I’d have been pretty pissed if the Phils didn’t open up the checkbook this year. worthwhile low-risk deal with potential for high reward, especially as an overture for next FA season

Shore wrote:We were in 14th place out of 15 teams, 21 games out of the wild card.

We need a win and a half extra out of every lineup spot (12) plus another extra win and a half out of each rotation sport (7.5) and another couple extra out of the bullpen and bench. And you need the bar to stay the same, rather than someone like the brewers making it 90 wins for the 2nd wildcard.

We’re not going 14-for-14 with improvements.

If we can get both Machado and Harper, then we’re talking.

darn time difference.. missed all the fun!

my own all-too-frequent rose-colored projection errors have (finally) taught me that shore is broadly right in his critique of improvement calculations. however, shore, this time last year you were using the phils 2016 pythagorean wins, considerably lower than acrual 2016 wins, as your baseline. now you are using the 2017 actual wins instead of the higher pythagorean wins.

i prefer base-runs wins (indep of sequencing luck) to both. phils were at 71 in 2017, just behind the steamer preseason prediction of 72. bp was lower, iirc. both take into acccount everything shore is concerned about, including playing time penalties for aging and injury history. pre arrieta, pecota projected 78 2018 phils wins, and steamer 74. standard error on such projections is around 7 wins. odds are against making the playoffs, but they've gone from 50/1 or worse a year ago to 30/1 without jake to 20/1 with. i'm pleased.

MoBettle wrote:I think the issue here is we have different definitions of a successful season. Clearly predicting anything like them being like that 95 win Cubs team would be irresponsible. But I look at fangraphs and they have the 2nd NL Wild Card team (the Mets, no less!) predicted at 82-80. That would certainly be optimistic but I don't think anything too crazy has to happen for us to be in range there.

I'm with jersey. I would gladly just take meaningful baseball in August. This year anyway.

I like FanGraphs, but those standings predictions are AWFUL.

The average AL team is going to go 84-78, and the average NL team 78-84. The AL gains 30 wins from last year... interleague record last year was 160-140 AL. Only way Fangraphs standings work is if it's 190-110 this year.

The Dodgers are 17 games worse than 2017, the Brewers are 6 games WORSE.

It's a bad set of numbers, and it makes NL win totals artificially low, with only 3 NL teams winning more than 83 games. Almost every year, 6-8 NL teams win 83+ games.

my cousin mose wrote:

Eem wrote:I'm thrilled they're going for a competitive season. I give absolutely zero fucks about the money and the length is excellent. Glad they're spending money and it won't hurt them in any way whatsoever

exactly, even if his arm falls off, we're not hurting our chances down the road.

Still have room to do major moves if needed in June-July, which would affect all those calculations

I just think of the deal as a down payment on Harper or Machado


I also think we'll be in the market for Archer

pacino wrote:I just think of the deal as a down payment on Harper or Machado


I also think we'll be in the market for Archer

arrieta = thome?

Barry Jive wrote:he has bad opinions and is probably getting worse but I’d have been pretty pissed if the Phils didn’t open up the checkbook this year. worthwhile low-risk deal with potential for high reward, especially as an overture for next FA season

yes

pacino wrote:I just think of the deal as a down payment on Harper or Machado


I also think we'll be in the market for Archer

& yes.

That is what I was trying to nudge about the Eagles pressure on the Phillies. Arrieta is an available option to both pay maybe a little high, but only on a three year deal, and a signal to the track of the team. 2018 will be a year of charting a course, and 2019 might be a roller coaster to get to 2020 meaningful post season play. Arrieta will either be part of plan 2020, or the bridge that gets the team there.

mtcal wrote:

pacino wrote:I just think of the deal as a down payment on Harper or Machado


I also think we'll be in the market for Archer

arrieta = thome?

but without the David Bell

Santana might be Bell. Archer is Millwood...

Millwood makes me cringe way more than Bell. Only time I liked him as a Phillie was when we traded him for Estrada which seemed great and when he threw the no hitter hitter. Bell had a few semi-decent seasons with the Phils.

This move is really exciting. I like the Santana move. Like others have said, just being competitive late will be great if that happens.

i still hold a grudge against dopey bell because he refused to barehand bunts / slow rollers. WTF

1 wrote:Santana might be Bell. Archer is Millwood...

mods...

Finkle is Einhorn

Shore wrote:
Santana is 32, with an .818 OPS last year, .810 for his career.

Williams was .811 last year, and Altherr .856, and they're 24 and 27.

I like Santana, but it's not like his expected production fills some gaping hole we had last year.

Well that puts a damper on my Santana optimism.

his name reminds me of this sesame street bit when I was a kid

So what's the projected rotation before and after VV breaks

Prebreak
Nola
Arrieta
Pivetta
VV
eickhoff

Postbreak
Nola
Arrieta
Pivetta
Eickoff
Lively or Leiter

Unless we think Arrieta is the #1 because of veteranoisty

WilliamC wrote:Millwood makes me cringe way more than Bell. Only time I liked him as a Phillie was when we traded him for Estrada which seemed great and when he threw the no hitter hitter. Bell had a few semi-decent seasons with the Phils.

This move is really exciting. I like the Santana move. Like others have said, just being competitive late will be great if that happens.

i was supposed to be at that no hitter but my ex-wife then fiance wanted to go get a guinea pig instead that day.