JFLNYC wrote:

Wheels Tupay wrote:I stand fully prepared to blame JFLNYC when this blows up terribly. I invite all of you to join me.

Late to the party but I’ve got broad shoulders.

Great game of poker by Klentak and very well crafted deal.

54 years ago the Phils acquired a star pitcher after his age 31 season. He had been a 5-time all star and had led the league in strikeouts twice. But he was coming off 2 years of decline, his ERA+ going from 129 to 114 to 97 over the '61-'63 seasons, he was on the wrong side of 30 and most considered him past his prime and on an inexorable trend downward.

He went on to have 4 terrific seasons for the Phils posting an ERA+ of 132, 132, 150 and 149 over those 4 seasons. He ended solidifying and leading a Phillies starting staff which, at the time of his acquisition, had only 1 reliable homegrown starter. He eventually ended up in the HOF nd his name was Jim Bunning.

That's my comp and I'm sticking with it.

The Notre Dame fight song was playing in my head as I read this. Hope they can win one for the Bunster.

just got around to checking bp's win projection update.
phils up to 81. nl 2nd wildcard (stl) at 85. if standard error of projections is 6 wins (reported by fangraphs earlier this offseason), phils odds of 85+ wins based on 81 projected would be about 1 in 4. if standard error is 8 (what i think i remember reading in previous offseasons), the odds of 85 plus would be 3 in 10.

meanwhile, fangraphs, with their usual weird daily fluctuations, is back down to 75 for the phils and just 82 for the second wc in the nl. the phils odds of 82+ wins based on a projection of 75 would be 8/1 to 5/1 for win projection standard errors ranging form 6 to 8.

most pessimistic odds would be fangraphs phillies wins, bp's nl wildcard threshold, and fg's optimistic standard error. that gives 25/1 odds against the phils reaching the playoffs... which, oddly enough, seems about right to me.

depending on which standard error one uses, adding two wins via the arrieta signing improved the phils chances 50 to 100%.

Boras gets a seat at the head table for the press conference

Squire wrote:Boras gets a seat at the head table for the press conference

power move. Jake looks a little nervous/ awkward.

wow he's not what I expected - very good speaker. confident. like him.

expects to pitch week 1. 50-60 pitch bullpens every other day. in great shape.

not concerned with any dip in velocity. not ruling out a spike.

cartersDad26 wrote:not ruling out a spike.

In the left ass cheek...

best shape of his life (probably)

WheelsFellOff wrote:

cartersDad26 wrote:not ruling out a spike.

In the left ass cheek...

Whatever it takes dude!

I felt like there was kinda of a strange comment by Klentak during the Press Conference. He mentioned that he had a difficult time getting ahold of Boras and that he mentioned someone else in the front office whose name I am forgetting but apparently was sitting front row did alot of the work to get in touch with Boras.

Probably my favorite quote from the Arrieta press conference:

"A message I want to send to not only the players but to Philadelphia in general and the entire Phillies nation: What we're going to do here is we're going to promise a fight. There's no guarantee you're going to feel good or that you're going to have your best stuff or you're going to get a great night's sleep the night before. But what we can promise is that we're going to have conviction and we're going to fight and we're going to win at the end of the day. I couldn't be happier to be a Phillie."

He seems like a weirdo but hope he pitches good and helps the other pitchers pitch gooder.

SixerLed3 wrote:Probably my favorite quote from the Arrieta press conference:

"A message I want to send to not only the players but to Philadelphia in general and the entire Phillies nation: What we're going to do here is we're going to promise a fight. There's no guarantee you're going to feel good or that you're going to have your best stuff or you're going to get a great night's sleep the night before. But what we can promise is that we're going to have conviction and we're going to fight and we're going to win at the end of the day. I couldn't be happier to be a Phillie."

sounds like what a former alcoholic coworker said to me one day, if memory serves me correct, it turned out ok.

Think we can conclusively determine that his arm is shot based on that quote

A real fighter would learn to throw left-handed.

He's not really a Jim Bunning.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... ja01.shtml

I love that Lance Lynn is his age 30 comp

Brandon Webb is a nice comp but not the longevity part