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Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Upton"

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Werthless » Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:10:40

Trout recently passed Lance Berkman, Jeff Kent, and Robin Ventura in career WAR.

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby BigEd76 » Tue May 01, 2018 21:02:07

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby kruker » Tue May 01, 2018 21:17:18

Werthless wrote:Trout recently passed Lance Berkman, Jeff Kent, and Robin Ventura in career WAR.


We keep hearing these stats about him, but I still wonder if it's really clicking how good he is. It's insane. I say that and I'm not entirely sure I get it either. Transcendent.
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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby bleh » Tue May 01, 2018 23:37:02

I was thinking about the HR record and who has a chance to break it and came up with this chart. It's how many HRs per year each player has to average to tie the record in their age 42 season.

Age HR ?? Name
38 619 27.2 Albert Pujols
26 211 32.0 Mike Trout
28 272 32.2 Giancarlo Stanton
25 158 33.2 Bryce Harper
25 147 33.8 Manny Machado
23 70 34.3 Carlos Correa
23 43 35.6 Nomar Mazara
35 465 36.3 Miguel Cabrera
24 64 36.4 Francisco Lindor
25 86 37.2 Mookie Betts
24 46 37.3 Addison Russell
27 152 37.7 Nolan Arenado
25 76 37.7 Miguel Sano
30 260 38.1 Justin Upton
25 67 38.2 Maikel Franco

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby swishnicholson » Wed May 02, 2018 00:43:00

bleh wrote:I was thinking about the HR record and who has a chance to break it and came up with this chart. It's how many HRs per year each player has to average to tie the record in their age 42 season.

Age HR ?? Name
38 619 27.2 Albert Pujols
26 211 32.0 Mike Trout
28 272 32.2 Giancarlo Stanton
25 158 33.2 Bryce Harper
25 147 33.8 Manny Machado
23 70 34.3 Carlos Correa
23 43 35.6 Nomar Mazara
35 465 36.3 Miguel Cabrera
24 64 36.4 Francisco Lindor
25 86 37.2 Mookie Betts
24 46 37.3 Addison Russell
27 152 37.7 Nolan Arenado
25 76 37.7 Miguel Sano
30 260 38.1 Justin Upton
25 67 38.2 Maikel Franco


Two years ago I would have said that made the answer easy: no one was going to be break the home run record. Now I think it depends on how mlb reacts to surge of longballs.

Still think it's unlikely as, more are likely to follow the trend of Pujols, who at age 30 merely needed to average jsut over 21 HR a year through age 42 to break the record. He's averaged 29 since then, but the failure of the rest of his production make the chances of him being able to pursue it extremely remote.
Of course, others seem a little more dedicated to general fitness than Albert.
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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Werthless » Wed May 02, 2018 08:49:10

I think your math is wrong on Pujols, swish, but I agree with your broader point. Trout/Harper/Stanton/Machado all have a decent (10%?) shot at this. It comes down to who hits well throughout their 30s.

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Werthless » Wed May 02, 2018 08:57:10

Christian Villanueva has 30 ABs against LHP. Has 8 HRs and a 1.815 OPS against them.

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby swishnicholson » Wed May 02, 2018 17:21:09

Werthless wrote:Christian Villanueva has 30 ABs against LHP. Has 8 HRs and a 1.815 OPS against them.


On the other side of the rabbit hole this opened for me: Joey Curletta, who we traded for switch-pitcher Pat Venditte, has an OPS of 1.095 for Seattle's AA club. Then again, Venditte has a 1.98 ERA for LA's AAA team.
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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Slowhand » Wed May 02, 2018 17:25:27

swishnicholson wrote:
Werthless wrote:Christian Villanueva has 30 ABs against LHP. Has 8 HRs and a 1.815 OPS against them.


On the other side of the rabbit hole this opened for me: Joey Curletta, who we traded for switch-pitcher Pat Venditte, has an OPS of 1.095 for Seattle's AA club. Then again, Venditte has a 1.98 ERA for LA's AAA team.


Always wanted Venditte to succeed at the big league level for the oddity factor. He's had a pretty good minor league career, but alas, kinda stinky in fairly limited Major League time.
How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby swishnicholson » Thu May 03, 2018 11:56:09

for a SABR project, in case anyone is intersted:

Hello Everyone! I wanted to forward this email along in case anyone was interested...

[This message is sent on behalf of Gregory H. Wolf. Please reply to ghwolf1967@gmail.com. Thanks!]


Are you interested in contributing to a great games book focusing on Shibe Park/Connie Mack Stadium in Philadelphia?

We’re looking for authors to write game summaries based on the Games Project model. Please note the following: the maximum length of contributions is 1,500 words (excluding sources and notes); references to Philadelphia newspapers should be included; and the contribution should be hyperlinked.

Please contact me directly per email for the latest list of games available.

Gregory H. Wolf
Co-Director, BioProject
ghwolf1967@gmail.com
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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Slowhand » Thu May 03, 2018 14:46:24

Ichiro will move to a front office position (special assistant to the chairman) with Seattle for the rest of the season. But he is not retiring.

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How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Bucky » Thu May 03, 2018 15:01:12

Sure sound like "coach" to me, but whatever

The Mariners said Ichiro will provide input on outfield play, baserunning and hitting while serving as a mentor to players and staff.

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Slowhand » Fri May 04, 2018 12:30:56

The lovable JOEY BATS has been called up by the Barves.
How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby smitty » Fri May 04, 2018 15:08:59

Bucky wrote:Sure sound like "coach" to me, but whatever

The Mariners said Ichiro will provide input on outfield play, baserunning and hitting while serving as a mentor to players and staff.


We expect him to play in next seasons games in Japan. Then he'll retire as a player.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby BigEd76 » Fri May 04, 2018 16:58:29

nm
Last edited by BigEd76 on Fri May 04, 2018 17:21:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby heyeaglefn » Fri May 04, 2018 17:17:20

Big Ed has Slowhand blocked.

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Bucky » Fri May 04, 2018 17:18:54

doesn't everyone?

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Slowhand » Fri May 04, 2018 17:21:38

heyeaglefn wrote:Big Ed has Slowhand blocked.


Doesn’t everyone?
How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Wheels Tupay » Fri May 04, 2018 17:42:35

I don't. I think you are super duper.
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EDP 2020

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Re: Random MLB Thoughts: "I missed a parade to marry Kate Up

Postby Bucky » Fri May 04, 2018 17:53:18

Slowhand wrote:
heyeaglefn wrote:Big Ed has Slowhand blocked.


Doesn’t everyone?



Image

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