Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Continues

Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby joe table » Tue Aug 01, 2017 20:46:51

Just as an aside I'm pretty bullish on Nick Williams. Hackish tendencies give him little margin for error and lots of variance. Has that quick twitch to him at the plate which is not teachable and also a short swing. Reminds me physically of a young Cargo (who I think is a best case comp)

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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby mtcal » Tue Aug 01, 2017 21:17:51

Werthless wrote:
ReadingPhilly wrote:the phillies lost in the nlds with the greatest pitching staff ever assembled.

What you mean to say is that anything can happen in the playoffs. We won the WS with Hamels plus a bunch of mediocre options. There is no single formula.


they sure as hell could hit though
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby mtcal » Tue Aug 01, 2017 21:40:00

phils technically listed at 2nd draft pick right now but won't know for sure until their games in hand vs giants get taken care of.
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby BigEd76 » Wed Aug 02, 2017 01:51:58

Anderson back to Reading and Perkins back to LV

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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby Wolfgang622 » Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:23:38

Philly the Kid wrote:I really enjoy the wonderful posts by the SABR experts of BSG - and the minor league experts - and general high level of discourse on perception versus reality.

What does it take though, to create a WS viable team?

It always seems like it comes down to pitching. To get through playoffs and all the way to November.

Maybe Kingery and Crawford are an amazing future - but aren't Cesar and Freddie competent? Freddie is often GG caliber according to many - and hits a few hrs. Cesar maybe is having an outlier season - but are these the guys that need to go?

If Altherr and Williams are for-real, and by that I mean .285-.290 OPS of .850+ most years with some power, and whether it's Joseph or Hoskins or whomever - what are the missing lynchpins.

I watched the Phils dominate 2009-2010-2011 and then I watched the SF Giants in my backyard locally win 3 times with Buster Posey the biggest bat? It was Lincecum, Cain, Baumgarner and a great pen - they got key hits from the Cody Ross's and Hunter Pence's.

I"m not saying that this configuration with Herrera, Franco, Cesar, and Freddy is quite right - but what if they did add a Trout or a Harper - and then had picked up a Sonny Gray or a Verlander or a couple of true aces and a couple of reliable consistent pen arms? Do we go from worst to first?

I'm all for all these prospects panning out - but is that reality? Alfaro, Crawford, Kingery, Moniak, and all the rest? How far away are we really? And if we had real quality top 3 SP and a lights out dedicated lefty in pen, and then a 7th-8th guy and 9th shut-down closer - couldn't we be the 10-12-14 Giants with just 1 mega-star bat?

How prolific were those teams offensively with Roles, Burrell, Abreu, THome, Rollins -- but they never had pitching. Are we going to have a farm that gives us the next 5 studs in the lineup?

I don't get to see many games because I'm so far away. But I see a lot of box score we just get no one on base. Overall, stats are not terrible in some cases, but the lack of walks I think is an issue. Anyway - if WIlliams and Altherr are legitimate - and Freddy Cesar Oduebl and Maikal are solid enough - then why not just get a Trout and some pitching ??


I was thinking about this the other day - sort of - at least on this point: I was thinking that the one constant across World Series winners in the last decade or so is an elite bullpen, with maybe excepting the 2014 Giants, who substituted one superhuman performance from one guy for the elite bullpen.

And the way postseason games are getting managed now, with starters getting pulled almost the instant the team has a lead in favor of short relievers who bring a different look each half inning with high velocity, etc., I am wondering if switch hitting will really start to be something teams put a premium on. Some effort to at least neutralize the idea of using the bullpen to go almost batter by batter in matchups in the postseason. If you have an elite bullpen, this plus the exponentially increased use of shifts really does seem to dominate play.
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby jamiethekiller » Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:24:58

mozartpc27 wrote:
Philly the Kid wrote:I really enjoy the wonderful posts by the SABR experts of BSG - and the minor league experts - and general high level of discourse on perception versus reality.

What does it take though, to create a WS viable team?

It always seems like it comes down to pitching. To get through playoffs and all the way to November.

Maybe Kingery and Crawford are an amazing future - but aren't Cesar and Freddie competent? Freddie is often GG caliber according to many - and hits a few hrs. Cesar maybe is having an outlier season - but are these the guys that need to go?

If Altherr and Williams are for-real, and by that I mean .285-.290 OPS of .850+ most years with some power, and whether it's Joseph or Hoskins or whomever - what are the missing lynchpins.

I watched the Phils dominate 2009-2010-2011 and then I watched the SF Giants in my backyard locally win 3 times with Buster Posey the biggest bat? It was Lincecum, Cain, Baumgarner and a great pen - they got key hits from the Cody Ross's and Hunter Pence's.

I"m not saying that this configuration with Herrera, Franco, Cesar, and Freddy is quite right - but what if they did add a Trout or a Harper - and then had picked up a Sonny Gray or a Verlander or a couple of true aces and a couple of reliable consistent pen arms? Do we go from worst to first?

I'm all for all these prospects panning out - but is that reality? Alfaro, Crawford, Kingery, Moniak, and all the rest? How far away are we really? And if we had real quality top 3 SP and a lights out dedicated lefty in pen, and then a 7th-8th guy and 9th shut-down closer - couldn't we be the 10-12-14 Giants with just 1 mega-star bat?

How prolific were those teams offensively with Roles, Burrell, Abreu, THome, Rollins -- but they never had pitching. Are we going to have a farm that gives us the next 5 studs in the lineup?

I don't get to see many games because I'm so far away. But I see a lot of box score we just get no one on base. Overall, stats are not terrible in some cases, but the lack of walks I think is an issue. Anyway - if WIlliams and Altherr are legitimate - and Freddy Cesar Oduebl and Maikal are solid enough - then why not just get a Trout and some pitching ??


I was thinking about this the other day - sort of - at least on this point: I was thinking that the one constant across World Series winners in the last decade or so is an elite bullpen, with maybe excepting the 2014 Giants, who substituted one superhuman performance from one guy for the elite bullpen.

And the way postseason games are getting managed now, with starters getting pulled almost the instant the team has a lead in favor of short relievers who bring a different look each half inning with high velocity, etc., I am wondering if switch hitting will really start to be something teams put a premium on. Some effort to at least neutralize the idea of using the bullpen to go almost batter by batter in matchups in the postseason. If you have an elite bullpen, this plus the exponentially increased use of shifts really does seem to dominate play.



there was a good article years ago from one of the stat sites that brought up bullpen being the only consistent thing that championships have. remember a few years ago looking for it and i couldn't find it.

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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby Werthless » Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:43:03

They all had good regular season bullpens, or they all had good playoff bullpens?

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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby Bucky » Wed Aug 02, 2017 10:51:41

the key is to get the right bunch of guys where at least 75% of them get hot in october

see, being a GM is easy

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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby pacino » Wed Aug 02, 2017 11:34:02

Daniel Nava is eligible to be activated from the disabled list Wednesday, and all signs point to that happening. “It’s feeling good,” Nava said of his strained left hamstring. Nava, 34, is a good bet to find a new home in August through a waiver trade.
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby PSUPhilliesPhan » Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:37:30

There's going to be a ton of great relievers in that 2018 free agent class too. Andrew Miller, Kimbrel, Britton, Trevor Rosenthal, Kelvin Herrera, Familia, Ramos and more. Outside of Miller they'll all be 31 or younger.

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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby pacino » Thu Aug 03, 2017 08:05:31

“I’m happy that some of my teammates in triple A have earned the opportunity to be here as well,” Ramos said through a team translator. “But what I really want to do here is gain the confidence of the manager back and do my job.”

“The No. 1 thing was to change my attitude,” Ramos said. “The last week I was here in the big leagues, I didn’t have a good attitude. Things weren’t working for me. My attitude wasn’t helping.”

“I feel really good. I gained a lot of confidence. What I wanted to do in triple A was work hard and get my confidence back. I feel like I did it.”
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby pacino » Thu Aug 03, 2017 08:06:07

Roman Quinn remains sidelined with a ligament injury to his left (non-throwing) arm. He has not played since May 28 and there is no timetable for his return to minor-league action. Quinn has good days and bad days in his recovery, Phillies general manager Matt Klentak said. “We’re running out of time,” Klentak said. “There’s about a month left in the minor-league season. That is the hope; we’d love to get him on the field by the end of the season.”
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby 06hawkalum » Thu Aug 03, 2017 08:13:20

pacino wrote:
Roman Quinn remains sidelined with a ligament injury to his left (non-throwing) arm. He has not played since May 28 and there is no timetable for his return to minor-league action. Quinn has good days and bad days in his recovery, Phillies general manager Matt Klentak said. “We’re running out of time,” Klentak said. “There’s about a month left in the minor-league season. That is the hope; we’d love to get him on the field by the end of the season.”


I've thrown in the towel on Quinn.
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby Titlehungry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 08:21:39

Quinn is a sad story... a ton on potential, ton of injuries... maybe he catches on as a utility guy somewhere someday but he is getting passed by here
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby Bob Loblaw » Thu Aug 03, 2017 08:45:10

So is Jake Thompson fixable?

Stat wise, in terms of ER, he didn't have a bad game, and he bounced back from a horrible inning the way Pivetta did a few games ago.

But... it ain't looking good.

Can he come back next year and win the 5th spot out of ST and be a major league starter - assuming we get rid of our current pitching coach?
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby Titlehungry » Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:00:43

I guess he's in the mix but he doesn't have Pivetta's stuff... I'd say Nola, Eickhoff, Pivetta, Velasquez in that order for the rotation... Thompson, Lively, Eflin, Eshelman, Anderson all getting consideration... Sanchez, Kilome, Medina, etc a couple years out yet... I'd give serious consideration to packaging a couple decent prospects or a mix with guys like Hernandez, Galvis, Rupp, Joseph, etc for a solid youngish veteran number two or three starter to help solidify the rotation for 2018 though
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby laf837 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:23:44

I've really liked the way Nola has bounced back so in a good rotation I see him as a ok 2 and a great 3. i like Pivetta the best of the rest but they are all 4-5 back-end rotation starters. VV is too inconsistent to be a reliable starter but I think he could be a pretty electric late-inning reliever.
They need at least two top of the rotation starters to be contenders in the near future. Maybe Sixto can be one but I think they are outside the org.
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:13:50

laf837 wrote:I've really liked the way Nola has bounced back so in a good rotation I see him as a ok 2 and a great 3. i like Pivetta the best of the rest but they are all 4-5 back-end rotation starters. VV is too inconsistent to be a reliable starter but I think he could be a pretty electric late-inning reliever.
They need at least two top of the rotation starters to be contenders in the near future. Maybe Sixto can be one but I think they are outside the org.


If Nola is healthy he is at least a solid #2 if not a borderline #1. From what I've seen of Pivetta I think he could be a solid #3 eventually. I'm not sure VV will stay healthy so I wouldn't count on him
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby 06hawkalum » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:28:03

Warszawa wrote:
laf837 wrote:I've really liked the way Nola has bounced back so in a good rotation I see him as a ok 2 and a great 3. i like Pivetta the best of the rest but they are all 4-5 back-end rotation starters. VV is too inconsistent to be a reliable starter but I think he could be a pretty electric late-inning reliever.
They need at least two top of the rotation starters to be contenders in the near future. Maybe Sixto can be one but I think they are outside the org.


If Nola is healthy he is at least a solid #2 if not a borderline #1. From what I've seen of Pivetta I think he could be a solid #3 eventually. I'm not sure VV will stay healthy so I wouldn't count on him


Yeah, I don't know in what world Nola is an "ok #2." He has pitched like an ace this year.

Here are his MLB ranks this year:

ERA - #10
WAR - #16
WHIP - #18
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Re: Phillies General Discussion II: The Season of Suck Conti

Postby Werthless » Thu Aug 03, 2017 12:42:52

He's probably saying he's not an ace on a great team. If Nola was on most of the playoff teams this year, he'd be starting game 2 of the opening round.

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