The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby The Savior » Thu Nov 17, 2016 07:28:51

jerseyhoya wrote:Not that there's any real groundswell to pass some legislation that overturns the electoral college, but if we get to that point I hope whatever uniform national election procedures we adopt are the opposite of what happens in California because the fact that they've got millions of votes uncounted 10 days after the election is effing pathetic. Like, in other states if it came down to a recount close margin we might be stuck, but California just takes forfuckingever to count its votes.


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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 17, 2016 09:56:00

Russia no longer recognizes the International Criminal Court due to their bias. Coincidentally, the ICC issued a report the day before which condemned the annexation of Crimea.
South Africa, Burndi and Gambia also withdrew last month, also due to claims of bias.

Russia claims it is merely an occupation, while also claiming there are no troops there.

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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:06:17

jerseyhoya wrote:Not that there's any real groundswell to pass some legislation that overturns the electoral college, but if we get to that point I hope whatever uniform national election procedures we adopt are the opposite of what happens in California because the fact that they've got millions of votes uncounted 10 days after the election is effing pathetic. Like, in other states if it came down to a recount close margin we might be stuck, but California just takes #$!&@ to count its votes.

Yeah, I'm pretty confused by that. Absentees were counted here in Virginia within 48 hours. I realize it's a bigger state, but good god.

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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:12:14

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:Not that there's any real groundswell to pass some legislation that overturns the electoral college, but if we get to that point I hope whatever uniform national election procedures we adopt are the opposite of what happens in California because the fact that they've got millions of votes uncounted 10 days after the election is effing pathetic. Like, in other states if it came down to a recount close margin we might be stuck, but California just takes #$!&@ to count its votes.

Yeah, I'm pretty confused by that. Absentees were counted here in Virginia within 48 hours. I realize it's a bigger state, but good god.

apparently the amount of the mail-in ballots and a law that allows mail-ins to come up to 3 days after add to it, then i guess the amount of provisional ballots that they have to do research on. still seems slow.
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby Monkeyboy » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:14:59

I'm still a bit confused about the vote count. At first I heard it was fantastic turnout, but that seemed to be mostly anecdotal. Then I heard that both parties had less voters, but the dems lost more voters than the gop. Now I'm hearing again that the turnout was the highest ever.

What gives?

Also, I still feel like something isn't quite right. Shenanigans?
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:17:12

Monkeyboy wrote:I'm still a bit confused about the vote count. At first I heard it was fantastic turnout, but that seemed to be mostly anecdotal. Then I heard that both parties had less voters, but the dems lost more voters than the gop. Now I'm hearing again that the turnout was the highest ever.

What gives?

Also, I still feel like something isn't quite right. Shenanigans?

vote counting takes a while. All those provisional ballots that get cast actually do eventually get counted. Plus, lots of states (like PA) still don't allow early voting so it simply takes longer to count those votes.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:19:50

Monkeyboy wrote:I'm still a bit confused about the vote count. At first I heard it was fantastic turnout, but that seemed to be mostly anecdotal. Then I heard that both parties had less voters, but the dems lost more voters than the gop. Now I'm hearing again that the turnout was the highest ever.

What gives?

Also, I still feel like something isn't quite right. Shenanigans?


1. The media are dumb and don't understand how this works.
2. Turnout was high, and in terms of number of voters, probably highest ever.
3. But remember, the number of eligible voters (typically the number used as the denominator when discussing turnout) is also higher than ever, so as a percentage, it seems turnout was down slightly from 2012. But it was still higher than any election between 1972 and 2000, according to 538.
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:27:08

jerseyhoya wrote:The Clinton Campaign Was Undone By Its Own Neglect And A Touch Of Arrogance, Staffers Say - there will be better stories with either more on the record sources or off the record sources specifically detailing what the internals were showing, but an awful lot of my belief here in Clinton being extremely likely to win was due to thinking the Clinton campaign was the only outfit that had a real data/polling operation and following their actions. It seems the Dems fucked up significantly worse than Romney's people in 2012 - at least there wasn't anything they suggested that cost him the election. So much for thinking we're miles behind them.


I think Bill Clinton got lucky back in 1972 when he hired Carville and Stephenopolous. Otherwise, the DLC types have been pretty horrid at running campaigns. I guess they didn't actually use Mark Penn this time around, but anyone who ever thought that guy should be withing 1000 miles of a national campaign really has no ability to recognize talent. They certainly did not have a David Plouffe.

As I noted before the election, the Clinton people appeared to have no strategy to generate enthusiasm among young voters, and the ads I saw were uniformly terrible. They should've hired the guy who made that Bernie Sanders America Ad. Or heck, re-run the fighting for you ad. In an election were policy didn't matter, an ad like that could have been effective in countering the relentless pessimism and negativity of Trump, and given that Hillary doesn't really do optimism naturally, would have maybe helped.
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby JUburton » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:41:55

they ran on 'demographics are destiny' and 'donald trump is unfit' and it failed them miserably. unfortunately the former was actually somewhat true and white people voted the way white people vote, not the way white people vote for barack obama. the latter didnt seem like a terrible strategy but it apparently takes more than oppo to win an election.

not sure if this was posted, but obama's fl election guru posted a post-mortem of fl. it's pretty good and is kind of a microcosm of the above.

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog ... irror.html

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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby The Dude » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:42:53

Fantastic. Happening a little quciker than i thought

Trump: http://6abc.com/news/trolley-car-diner- ... -/1611301/
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby JUburton » Thu Nov 17, 2016 10:45:22

between this and tombrodude OD'ing there, been a rough couple months for train car diner PR.

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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby drsmooth » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:04:44

JUburton wrote:they ran on 'demographics are destiny' and 'donald trump is unfit' and it failed them miserably.


let's see, 1M+ popular vote margin = "miserable failure".

Hmmm.

No. No, that equation is faulty.


roll 100k votes in 3 states, and a completely different narrative is necessary. See the problem?

Just because a more accurate summary requires more thought to concoct, does not mean it would not be more valuable to anyone trying to make sense of the outcome than "zomg, the D strategy was ALL WRONG!!1!"

because really, it wasn't.
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby Youseff » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:08:44

have you guys discussed how "mainstream" America thinks that paid protesters are rioting in every city. that's the 1a level of "mainstream" thought, the 1b level is that George Soros is paying them.
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:11:41

I would ask if they have looked outside their windows?
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby drsmooth » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:11:45

The Dude wrote:Fantastic. Happening a little quciker than i thought

Trumphttp://6abc.com/news/trolley-car-d ... -/1611301/


let's try it this way
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby MoBettle » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:13:21

drsmooth wrote:
JUburton wrote:they ran on 'demographics are destiny' and 'donald trump is unfit' and it failed them miserably.


let's see, 1M+ popular vote margin = "miserable failure".

Hmmm.

No. No, that equation is faulty.


roll 100k votes in 3 states, and a completely different narrative is necessary. See the problem?

Just because a more accurate summary requires more thought to concoct, does not mean it would not be more valuable to anyone trying to make sense of the outcome than "zomg, the D strategy was ALL WRONG!!1!"

because really, it wasn't.


Darn republicans springing the electoral college on the democrats at the last second.
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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:13:30

drsmooth wrote:
JUburton wrote:they ran on 'demographics are destiny' and 'donald trump is unfit' and it failed them miserably.


let's see, 1M+ popular vote margin = "miserable failure".

Hmmm.

No. No, that equation is faulty.


roll 100k votes in 3 states, and a completely different narrative is necessary. See the problem?

Just because a more accurate summary requires more thought to concoct, does not mean it would not be more valuable to anyone trying to make sense of the outcome than "zomg, the D strategy was ALL WRONG!!1!"

because really, it wasn't.

They just lost an election to a guy with a 60% unfavorable rating among people who voted.

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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:16:47

Clapper is resigning

it begins
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby JUburton » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:21:08

drsmooth wrote:
JUburton wrote:they ran on 'demographics are destiny' and 'donald trump is unfit' and it failed them miserably.


let's see, 1M+ popular vote margin = "miserable failure".

Hmmm.

No. No, that equation is faulty.


roll 100k votes in 3 states, and a completely different narrative is necessary. See the problem?

Just because a more accurate summary requires more thought to concoct, does not mean it would not be more valuable to anyone trying to make sense of the outcome than "zomg, the D strategy was ALL WRONG!!1!"

because really, it wasn't.
losing the electoral college is a miserable failure. i agree its important to not over react and completely ruin what almost got you there but these things are won on those margins. and they lost.

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Re: The kids aren't alt-right - a politics thread

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 17, 2016 11:24:41

drsmooth wrote:
JUburton wrote:they ran on 'demographics are destiny' and 'donald trump is unfit' and it failed them miserably.


let's see, 1M+ popular vote margin = "miserable failure".

Hmmm.

No. No, that equation is faulty.


roll 100k votes in 3 states, and a completely different narrative is necessary. See the problem?

Just because a more accurate summary requires more thought to concoct, does not mean it would not be more valuable to anyone trying to make sense of the outcome than "zomg, the D strategy was ALL WRONG!!1!"

because really, it wasn't.

we lost. time to move on. i get not scrapping it all but might need to hire some new data/messaging guys and make sure the previous crew doesn't get near the steering wheel again.
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