Orange is the new whack (politics)

by **slugsrbad** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:22:40

Doll Is Mine wrote:
Patrick Svitek ‏@PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.

There are some polls that have it as close as +2 Trump (there is an Ipsos poll that has him +25, so who knows). Wow. I mean, 538 has it as a basic lock still, but I didn't think Texas would be that close.

by **pacino** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:24:36

slugsrbad wrote:
Doll Is Mine wrote:
Patrick Svitek ‏@PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.

There are some polls that have it as close as +2 Trump (there is an Ipsos poll that has him +25, so who knows). Wow. I mean, 538 has it as a basic lock still, but I didn't think Texas would be that close.

without any research and only hot taeking it i'd put him at a double-digit favorite, but barely. but hey, when you raise 140 million dollars you have to spend it on something, and this could be worthwhile.

by **CalvinBall** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:28:59

yeah, think it is a longer term play. give the impression that dems are close to being a factor there could help in 4 or 8 years. push the narrative.

by **Bucky** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:41:14

Dems raise money to help re-open firebombed NC GOP office

by **TenuredVulture** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:41:44

A lot of Republicans are demoralized, and that by itself could account for the unusual RV/LV pattern.

As far as Texas, it would be surprising if HRC makes it close, but--the demographics are shifting, and Johnson might do better than expected, and if the polls aren't doing a hot job capturing Spanish speakers who may not feel comfortable doing a survey in English, well....Also, lot of white suburban women who may be wavering.

Wendi Davis is not a good candidate to break through in TX by the way--Latinos, who can be somewhat socially conservative are unlikely to rally to a candidate like that.

by **JUburton** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:43:54

Bucky wrote:Dems raise money to help re-open firebombed NC GOP office

very nice of them to do this just like the GOP does when planned parenthood sites get terrorized.

by **Soren** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:50:30

What does it matter what scumbag shit GOP assholes do or don't do. Compassion matters in the face of literal fascist hate.

by **CalvinBall** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:53:14

saw lots liberals mocking that on twitter. idk what to think.

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:53:39

pacino wrote:
Doll Is Mine wrote:
Patrick Svitek ‏@PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.

this is the Democrat's white whale. The demographics are swaying towards them but the registration gap is stark. They pinned their hopes on Wendy Davis, for example, but it was way too early. Perhaps the fear of Donald Trump may push it along faster. If they could somehow break Texas away from being a Republican stronghold, it all changes.

Eh, there's no reason to end the campaign with money in the bank. Just start swinging for the fences and help some of the downticket races. You never know what can/will happen. No one thought Dave Brat was going to unseat Cantor either.

by **drsmooth** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:56:17

noted Dem suckup, Republican OH Sec'y of State Jon Husted, calls drumpf's noise about rigged elections "irresponsible"

by **pacino** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 13:57:45

CalvinBall wrote:saw lots liberals mocking that on twitter. idk what to think.

what is there to mock? it seems like a nice thing to do.

by **JUburton** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:07:06

Soren wrote:What does it matter what scumbag shit GOP assholes do or don't do. Compassion matters in the face of literal fascist hate.

I get the idea but in the end you're directly financially supporting something that goes against your ideology.

Like oh good they'll get to have a new ribbon cutting for a site that can become a new ground zero for the war against LGBT or women's or voting rights in North Carolina.

by **JUburton** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:10:29

also this was a false flag, please subscribe to my newsletter.

by **JUburton** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:13:44

what im saying is there are about a bajillion other people who deserve your charity dollars more than this group who happens to probably use those dollars to harm some of the people in the first group who deserve them.

but yes, i do feel bad that some shitbag burned the place down because that is dangerous, wrong, and illegal.

by **jerseyhoya** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:16:17

slugsrbad wrote:I would assume* the gap in RV vs LV is that there are registered Dems making noise towards Stein, but when you look at people likely to vote, the percentage shifts to Hillary. I think it's alarming (for him) that Donald's number doesn't move at all. He's back at his 40% ceiling. All he can do is get his base, he is such a failed, miserable, disgrace of a human being.

*I didn't read the poll, nor do I know how polls work. Please correct me JH or someone else.

Likely voter screens in public polls are usually just self reported vote likelihood, so if more Democrats are saying they're more likely to vote, then they'll gain. You're on the right track a bit insofar as people who say they're voting third party usually also say a lower vote likelihood, but that's less of a factor here than in the differences between the 4-way and head to head ballots. Usually shifting from registered voters to likely voters boosts the GOP by a point or two, and it has this year in other polls (such as the NC and NV polls out today from CNN), but if Trump continues spiraling for the next few weeks, wouldn't be surprising if Hillary overperforms her RV numbers.

by **MoBettle** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:23:43

The democrats should probably stop peddling this "they go low we go high" thing if the White House press secretary is going to make jokes about trump being on coke during the debate.

by **traderdave** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:24:00

pacino wrote:
Giuliani: I remember when I was in Chicago there were 720 dead people voted in the 1982 election ... We have people who cheat in elections.

Tapper: You’re saying only Democrats cheat.

Giuliani: I have found few situations where Republicans cheat. They don’t control the inner-cities the way Democrats do. Maybe if Republicans controlled the inner-cities, they’d do as much cheating.

Tapper: I think there are a lot of election experts that would have very strong disagreements with you.

Giuliani: Well, then they’ve never prosecuted election fraud .... I can’t sit here and tell you they don’t cheat, and I can tell you it’s because they control the polling stations … So they leave dead people on the rolls and pay people to have those dead people vote.

Jeez, Rudy; Peter Florrick did his time. Move on!!

by **pacino** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:34:05

"I promise you that we will be united against any Supreme Court nominee that Hillary Clinton, if she were president, would put up," McCain said. "I promise you. This is where we need the majority and Pat Toomey is probably as articulate and effective on the floor of the Senate as anyone I have encountered."

any!

by **Youseff** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:34:11

pacino wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:saw lots liberals mocking that on twitter. idk what to think.

what is there to mock? it seems like a nice thing to do.

the guys mocking it are the guys that will harass journalists for months and months for having positions that are only slightly different than theirs.

by **pacino** » Mon Oct 17, 2016 14:38:58

the RCP averages:

RCP Poll Average 48.4 42.0 Clinton +6.4Trending Up
4-Way RCP Average 45.9 39.0 Clinton +6.9Trending Up
Favorability Ratings -9.1 -26.4 Clinton +17.3

first time the 4-way is ahead of the head-to-head

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