Rubio's NH meltdown had the same effect as Howard Dean's scream. Almost no one took him seriously after it.

JH, please don't get alcohol poisoning tonight, the board and this thread need you.

I think the NH debate moment was huge because it probably cost Rubio 2nd and a clear shot at being The Guy to take on Trump at a juncture early enough where he could've won it, but saying nobody took him seriously after that is revisionist history. He finished 2nd in South Carolina and Nevada after it, rebounding from 5th in NH, then did relatively well on Super Tuesday. Then the bottom dropped out. Cruz's people probably have the best data operation, but I'd love to read a longform piece from people plugged into both campaigns on what the fuck has happened the past two weeks. It should be a chapter in whatever the next Game Change book is called.

And I won't get alcohol poisoning. I am a lot better at drinking to excess when happy than sad.

Hillary got a backdoor win in Missouri.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/709975263870906369

This is pretty fitting. It would be lovely if this ends up biting him in the ass four months from now.

I don't know if it was like a Debbie Gibson thing when I was like 8 or 9 years old,.. But azrider will hit any chick wearing a hat.

jerseyhoya wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:Why can't Romney still do that if Trump is the nominee?

Need to start filing to get on the ballot by the beginning of May. Which means you need to start gathering signatures in the next week or two.

Please let this happen. I would give up the chance at winning back the senate to keep him from being President. I honestly think he can beat Hillary. I might even make him the favorite. He'll tone it down and a lot of people really don't like her. There are going to be tons of people of all types voting against candidates rather than for them, if it's those two in the general.

pacino wrote:Jeez, hope Cruz gets the nomination. He's unelectable nationwide.

this would be best case for dems, I think, which is why I don't think the GOP will let it happen. It will be Trump or Romney or both.

TomatoPie wrote:

JFLNYC wrote: There have been tectonic economic shifts which have occurred over the past few decades: The death of successful, local businesses which keep a community's wealth within the community in favor of national and multinational business which -- even if they provide jobs -- take the wealth out of the community and distribute it among investors in other parts of the country and the world; a global economy fueled by faster national and international shipping and modern telecommunications which allows jobs to be relocated to wherever in the world provides the cheapest labor; the ultra-redistribution of wealth from among the many to the very few.

Great post.

While there is danger in disregarding the lot of the downtrodden, it's also dangerous to think "this time it's different."

Compare the computer programmer who lost a nice job when it was outsourced, to the dustbowl Okie sharecropper who fled to California to bid for jobs where each opening had 10 men vying for it. This does not diminish the real pain or the need to address it - but it's not a new phenomenon.

Jobs have been lost and industries destroyed plenty of times. Whether to new technology or cheap foreign labor. Not seeing how it's different now other than there is a brighter light on the wealthiest. And somehow it's OK for celebs and athletes to be super wealthy, but not CEOs.

Here's a brighter view: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc ... er/426882/

There's a major issue with the logic here, as is tradition, in that the comparison between a computer programmer and a sharecropper (really?) is a completely nonsensical one. If my job decided to offshore all our SQL development today I could respond to one of the seemingly countless emails I get looking for sql developers. I might get a lower wage, I might have to work on a contract instead of being a FTE but I have skills that are in demand. The discussion about compensation and education costs are out of scope here.

What JFLNYC was speaking to was the complete erosion of the ability for small communities to generate similar opportunities for folks that aren't going to go to college. That used to be an option through manufacturing etc. It isn't anymore. This isn't rocket science, it's basic reading comprehension.

The Dude wrote:in the latest polls he's more than doubled cruz. rubio's votes are likely to be spread among cruz and kasich, but cruz would need all of them plus some to get within close range

UR doin it rong again

azrider wrote:I don't know if it was like a Debbie Gibson thing when I was like 8 or 9 years old,.. But azrider will hit any chick wearing a hat.

I'd say something like "wrong thread", but this is AZRider I'd be talking to. He has his reasons

I remonstrated with you young whippersnappers last night out of love. You've managed to learn to understand baseball more thoroughly - more enjoyably - by looking at the facts on hand more capably, in the face of loud and insistent and stupid conventional wisdom. I know you can do the same thing with respect to things that may actually impact your lives more significantly.

I've been...nonplussed that you haven't moved beyond, for example, "state wins zomg!!1!" more rapidly. It's like "that guy's really fast & knows how to lay down a bunt, hope we sign him 6/$120 millions!" ffs.

I can't believe it's me urging you to pay more attention to the nuances of the horserace. I abhor dwelling on that aspect, and we already have a guy with much greater skills at that kind of thing.

we all understand delegate math and what may happen at the convention. stop talking down to people, smooth.

you've yet to admit you were wrong on Trump. stop doubling-down.

Is it possible people are talking about states because the different states vote on different days? It would be weird to say, "Hey, what about delegate #34572? That guy's a real dipshit."

People can say who won the state and what the % was and that implies the delegates, no?

I think you're really reaching for reasons to call people stupid and it's a major distraction. And weird. And unnecessary. And weird.

the most recent PA poll was done March 9th by Harper.

Trump 36
Rubio 19
Cruz 17
Kasich 10

that leaves 18 undecided

Franklin & Marshall should issue a poll within the next two weeks I would think. To think that Trump couldn't do well in PA is to deny what PA is, IMO.

wait is doc quadrupling down on trump will definitely not be the nominee when he is literally the only person with a legitimate delegate path remaining?

important nuance (which actually somewhat helps doc), there are now 320 unpledged republican delegates.

Reading the 538 live chat where there was wide agreement Trump is on path to reach the delegate threshold immediately before reading the last 3 pages was perfect.

President Obama unveils his SC nominee at the Rose Garden at 11am

I don't really think that the rubio dropout matters all that much in the grand scheme. I get that maybe Kasich will consolidate Rubio's votes but I think that's oversimplifying given that one, Rubio by now doesn't even have that many votes, and two he has a base that reaches across demographics that isn't easily distributable. Sure, Kasich and Cruz might get some of Rubio's potential delegates moving forward but those aren't enough to stop Trump's march alone. Trump's win in Florida is pretty huge given how varied the base is there. The one caveat is that we have little data on northern states but I still think Trump's odds of hitting 1237 went up last night.

i want to see someone more reputable than the Intercept report on it (besides reiterating what they're saying), but maybe I get my wish with Chris Matthews if the campaign donations thing is for real

as of now, it's lot of a hearsay, which is what The Intercept specializes in. hope some real reporters get on it to ferret it out.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Reading the 538 live chat where there was wide agreement Trump is on path to reach the delegate threshold immediately before reading the last 3 pages was perfect.

doc smooth says it is impossible, so shall it be.