Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby pacino » Tue Mar 15, 2016 22:53:47

CalvinBall wrote:
pacino wrote:Jeez, hope Cruz gets the nomination. He's unelectable nationwide.


He's unelectable in his own party.

Heh, touche
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby pacino » Tue Mar 15, 2016 22:55:53

Wow, it's not an either or with Israelis and Palestinians . He implied Palestinians are our 'enemies'. This guy is sick.
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby Wolfgang622 » Tue Mar 15, 2016 22:57:20

drsmooth wrote:calvin, it's difficult for me to convey how far behind you are here. drumpf is not winning majorities in states where he needs to win them. 40% will not do it in the proportional states. He needs to win ALL the "true" WTA states, PLUS bigger pluralities in the proportional states, to gain the nomination. He's not doing it. He already lost Ohio. So he's even less likely to do what he needs to do.

If he underperforms in big states, like PA and CA - which seems quite probable - it's unlikely he'll corral enough delegates to secure the nomination before Cleveland.

It's not my fault you can't do math.

Plus, drumpf is just a disgusting awful, horrible organism.


It's pretty clear Trump will not be able to secure the number of delegates necessary to win the nomination outright.

Tonight some of the discussion has been about how big the gap between "1237" and the number Trump actually winds up with has to be for the party to have the stones to deny him the nomination. Consensus was less than 100, Trump will be nominated - over 100, let the games begin.

But there is also the gap between theory and practice. Such a move would have, presumably, catastrophic consequences for the Republican party.
Last edited by Wolfgang622 on Tue Mar 15, 2016 22:58:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby drsmooth » Tue Mar 15, 2016 22:57:58

TomatoPie wrote: Not seeing how it's different now other than there is a brighter light on the wealthiest. And somehow it's OK for celebs and athletes to be super wealthy, but not CEOs.


oh, get off your knees.

too few ceos actually earn it. they're managers. They don't do that much more than you or I could. At the stage decisions arrive in their laps for a determination, it's a fait accompli, or a coin flip. If they're actually smart, they maneuver to avoid having their names on even those "choices".

don't be such a sucker
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby Slowhand » Tue Mar 15, 2016 22:59:32

pacino wrote:Let's make sure we're civil to one another, guys.


Go to H-E-DOUBLE HOCKEY STICKS, please
How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby pacino » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:01:20

Steve Kornacki is in his element.
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby CalvinBall » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:01:48

mozartpc27 wrote:
drsmooth wrote:calvin, it's difficult for me to convey how far behind you are here. drumpf is not winning majorities in states where he needs to win them. 40% will not do it in the proportional states. He needs to win ALL the "true" WTA states, PLUS bigger pluralities in the proportional states, to gain the nomination. He's not doing it. He already lost Ohio. So he's even less likely to do what he needs to do.

If he underperforms in big states, like PA and CA - which seems quite probable - it's unlikely he'll corral enough delegates to secure the nomination before Cleveland.

It's not my fault you can't do math.

Plus, drumpf is just a disgusting awful, horrible organism.


It's pretty clear Trump will not be able to secure the number of delegates necessary to win the nomination outright.

Tonight some of the discussion has been about how big the gap between "1237" and the number Trump actually winds up with has to be for the party to have the stones to deny him the nomination. Consensus was less than 100, Trump will be nominated - over 100, let the games begin.

But there is also the gap between theory and practice. Such a move would have, presumably, catastrophic consequences for the Republican party.


As of yesterday that 538 feature had him ahead of target. He can still win outright without Ohio especially since he seems to be picking up a handful extra in Illinois.

I'm guessing he will stil be on target when that feature is updated. If not, a percentage point or two below.

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby drsmooth » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:03:18

mozartpc27 wrote:But there is also the gap between theory and practice. Such a move would have, presumably, catastrophic consequences for the Republican party.


Everything about this election season means catastrophic consequences for the Republican party. Tsunami, hurricane, drought, some combination of these.

The 'bright side' of an open convention is that the Rs might vomit up individuals who have an actual clue about making effective organizational choices - not enough to actually avoid an embarrassing landslide loss on the top line in November, but enough to find some organizing principle for the party's future.
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby TomatoPie » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:03:44

drsmooth wrote:
TomatoPie wrote: Not seeing how it's different now other than there is a brighter light on the wealthiest. And somehow it's OK for celebs and athletes to be super wealthy, but not CEOs.


oh, get off your knees.

too few ceos actually earn it. they're managers. They don't do that much more than you or I could. At the stage decisions arrive in their laps for a determination, it's a fait accompli, or a coin flip. If they're actually smart, they maneuver to avoid having their names on even those "choices".

don't be such a sucker


Lemme tell ya, doc. I'm just a middle manager, but I see what moves people ahead in business and waht holds people back. And nothing is more a career killer than crying about what's not fair to you.

Plenty of jerks get ahead, but not many stay CEO for very long.
Kill the chicken to scare the monkey

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:04:37

mozartpc27 wrote:
drsmooth wrote:calvin, it's difficult for me to convey how far behind you are here. drumpf is not winning majorities in states where he needs to win them. 40% will not do it in the proportional states. He needs to win ALL the "true" WTA states, PLUS bigger pluralities in the proportional states, to gain the nomination. He's not doing it. He already lost Ohio. So he's even less likely to do what he needs to do.

If he underperforms in big states, like PA and CA - which seems quite probable - it's unlikely he'll corral enough delegates to secure the nomination before Cleveland.

It's not my fault you can't do math.

Plus, drumpf is just a disgusting awful, horrible organism.


It's pretty clear Trump will not be able to secure the number of delegates necessary to win the nomination outright.

Tonight some of the discussion has been about how big the gap between "1237" and the number Trump actually winds up with has to be for the party to have the stones to deny him the nomination. Consensus was less than 100, Trump will be nominated - over 100, let the games begin.

But there is also the gap between theory and practice. Such a move would have, presumably, catastrophic consequences for the Republican party.

As would nominating Trump.

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby The Dude » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:05:30

pacino wrote:Trump is going to DOMINATE PA, smooth.

Let's make sure we're civil to one another, guys.


It's almost like there's one guy that starts the shitstorm of name calling
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:05:55

pacino wrote:Steve Kornacki is in his element.

I know I say this every election night or at least every time he's brought up, but he's one of a very select people on cable TV who are actually worth watching and know what they're talking about and say interesting things.

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:07:42

Teddy looks like he's going to lose Missouri by a margin smaller than Trump's stubby fingers. Glad the Canadian douchelord who I'm now apparently supporting to be the next president of the United States spent chunks of the past week campaigning in Florida and Ohio. That was great. Good job.

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby pacino » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:10:52

jerseyhoya wrote:
pacino wrote:Steve Kornacki is in his element.

I know I say this every election night or at least every time he's brought up, but he's one of a very select people on cable TV who are actually worth watching and know what they're talking about and say interesting things.

I know he is a Jersey guy, do you know similar people?


I would also say that Chris Hayes and Rachel Maddow are good at what they do. It's a very short list for me. Soledad O'Brien was good.candy Crawley. About all I can think of off the top of my head.

John Dickerson is the only Sunday show guy worth his salt. Ran a poor debate, though.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby pacino » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:12:31

jerseyhoya wrote:Teddy looks like he's going to lose Missouri by a margin smaller than Trump's stubby fingers. Glad the Canadian douchelord who I'm now apparently supporting to be the next president of the United States spent chunks of the past week campaigning in Florida and Ohio. That was great. Good job.

To kill his new friend Marco and try and make sure Kasich wouldnt win. Who knew Cruz was selfish and not about the party?!
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby drsmooth » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:15:35

CalvinBall wrote:I'm guessing he will stil be on target when that feature is updated. If not, a percentage point or two below.


Calvin, you understand that missing by 1 or 2 delegates is as good as missing by a mile, in terms of clinching the nomination by delegate count. Right?

All that I have been saying is that drumpf will be hard-pressed to secure 1237 delegates before Cleveland. The math is very close. He can't fumble. At all. In some places, he MUST do better than low 40s pluralities, to offset the larger places where he's likely to underperform.
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby WilliamC » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:17:04

It would be cool if someone stopped talking down to everyone without any reason. #drsmooth
Last edited by WilliamC on Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:18:07, edited 1 time in total.
Do it again!

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby pacino » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:17:34

I think he means me
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby pacino » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:19:40

Pushing Matthews off to the bar, giving Kornacki the reins numbers-wise, moving Maddow and Todd to the analysis and putting Williams in the anchor spot has been great for msnbc's coverage. More professional.
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Re: Strongman competition results thread aka politics

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Mar 15, 2016 23:20:41

pacino wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
pacino wrote:Steve Kornacki is in his element.

I know I say this every election night or at least every time he's brought up, but he's one of a very select people on cable TV who are actually worth watching and know what they're talking about and say interesting things.

I know he is a Jersey guy, do you know similar people?

I would also say that Chris Hayes and Rachel Maddow are good at what they do. It's a very short list for me. Soledad O'Brien was good.candy Crawley. About all I can think of off the top of my head.

John Dickerson is the only Sunday show guy worth his salt. Ran a poor debate, though.

No I just liked him a lot when he wrote for politicsnj. Think he's from Mass originally. But he's got the nerd's zeal for elections and numbers and political lore, which I love. I like Jake Tapper a lot. Anderson Cooper can be OK, though not really for domestic politics/elections. From Fox Megyn Kelly can be OK. I like Greg Gutfeld and Dana Perino from The Five on Fox, though that's neither hard news nor deep political insight. It's mostly pretty useless.

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