Kasich seems to care about people so I can see why he won't get any traction with Republicans.

kasich was the guy who said he went to a gay wedding

What if 4 F Trump's foot starts hurting again? He might need to drop out. If he can remember what foot it is.

jerseyhoya wrote:The RNC has been considering making a pledge to support the eventual nominee a requirement for inclusion in future debates. I think it's a really important question to a lot of Republican voters. I don't think they would have asked if there was any doubt that everyone would agree, but since there was doubt it was a very important thing to ask.

is the RNC even in charge anymore? I think they asked because there's a power struggle between them and the Koch financed group.

TenuredVulture wrote:Let's be clear--it's unlikely Trump's support is "the base". It's more likely that Trump's support comes from people who are not very involved in politics at all, and probably don't vote in primaries or caucuses at all. They're the kind of people who smugly say things like "all politicians are the same". They don't vote, and thus, they don't really matter. They might go ahead and vote for Trump as a 3rd party candidate if they remember where the polling location is and happen to go by it on their way to get a 30 pack of Bud Light.

I know they are the low information voters, but I thought they were the low information voters from the right, people who don't vote dem. They may not show up most of the time, but when they do, they will vote Rep. So I consider them part of the GOP base, just not a very reliable part.

I still can't believe they ended the debate last night with a "serious" Facebook question asking the candidates if God has instructed them on what to do if they win the White House. It never ceases to amaze me that there is a sizeable portion of the electorate who viewed this as a serious question and expected a real answer. In 2015.

CalvinBall wrote:kasich was the guy who said he went to a gay wedding

And was, by far, the most likable guy. What a world we live in.

to his credit, i have never been to a gay wedding.

is that tyler the creator?

ya

smitty wrote:What if 4 F Trump's foot starts hurting again? He might need to drop out. If he can remember what foot it is.

Is it true that none of the ten candidates at the debate have military experience?

That seems strange even from a random statistical standpoint, much less from a group of Republican Presidential candidates.

Well, Christie did point out that he 9/11'd up some 9/11 and put terrorists behind bars and saved American lives from 9/11 and hugged 9/11 families while 9/11 9/11 9/11 terrorists. That's like better than military service.

He did? I missed that.
Unfortunately for NJ, all those things were his last substantial accomplishments in public office.

24 million people watched last night. 18.9 million people voted in the 2012 Republican Presidential primaries. 23.3 million watched the last big event at Quicken Loans - Game 6 of the NBA Finals. I was expecting maybe 12 mil or so.

My takeaways are just more questions for people who've devoted lots of their life to participating, studying and understanding politics. I look at things from a sociological and phenomenological way which sometimes can catch things that people who are more nuts and bolts about it don't see right away. Sometimes it's self delusive for a time and winds up being way off. I respect you guys who stay so cool on this stuff and appreciate that sort of insight. So that said:

Aren't those ratings numbers startling? And that every instant feedback poll showed Trump dominatingly victorious when he clearly wasn't superior rhetorically or substantively? Doesn't it become harder to predict what might happen when you have the general public latching onto this which they seem to be? Is the expectation still that interest will simply dwindle over time? Doesn't there needs to be some crucial moment where he's dumped from the race and everyone understands "Ok, that kind of guy can never be president"? What if he doesn't self sabotage and carries this on through early primary states earning huge wins? Even if you are comfortable with your certainty that it simply can't happen, isn't it irresponsible to not consider a worst case scenario? Are any candidates doing that? I can't see any strategy in use right now besides pretending that this is simply a mirage or temporary national insanity that will pass. Somebody give me the most realistic scenario for how and when Trump goes away in the event that he doesn't sink his own ship

swishnicholson wrote:

smitty wrote:What if 4 F Trump's foot starts hurting again? He might need to drop out. If he can remember what foot it is.

Is it true that none of the ten candidates at the debate have military experience?

That seems strange even from a random statistical standpoint, much less from a group of Republican Presidential candidates.

Perry flew jets. Graham is an Air Force Reserve lawyer. That's it for all the Republicans.

Camille Paglia's post debate write ups captured my feelings on each candidate precisely and I'd imagine is in line with many others who watched

traderdave wrote:He did? I missed that.
Unfortunately for NJ, all those things were his last substantial accomplishments in public office.

Well, he was good on corruption, but New jersey's misuse of the terrorism designation during Christie's years is an everlasting shame.

But, yeah.

karn wrote:Aren't those ratings numbers startling? And that every instant feedback poll showed Trump dominatingly victorious when he clearly wasn't superior rhetorically or substantively? Doesn't it become harder to predict what might happen when you have the general public latching onto this which they seem to be? Is the expectation still that interest will simply dwindle over time? Doesn't there needs to be some crucial moment where he's dumped from the race and everyone understands "Ok, that kind of guy can never be president"? What if he doesn't self sabotage and carries this on through early primary states earning huge wins? Even if you are comfortable with your certainty that it simply can't happen, isn't it irresponsible to not consider a worst case scenario? Are any candidates doing that? I can't see any strategy in use right now besides pretending that this is simply a mirage or temporary national insanity that will pass. Somebody give me the most realistic scenario for how and when Trump goes away in the event that he doesn't sink his own ship

The ratings are startling. I wouldn't put any credence in online polls showing Trump 'winning' the debate. They're non random samples so all it says is there's a committed core of people who like Trump and go to Drudge or whatever.

I don't think there's going to be a clear cut moment where he implodes, but more a death by a series of cuts - the McCain remarks, hits on his liberal positions, his uninspiring debate performances, whatever gaffe comes next - and some of the conservative opinion leaders who have been positive on his candidacy will shift toward neutral, while those who have been neutral will be more negative, if he maintains his lead in the polls.

We've seen boomlets with people like Cain and Perry and Gingrich last cycle, and I think it's likely this will end up going in that direction in the next couple of months. Even if it doesn't there's a big distance between having a lead in a national (or state) poll when you call randomly dialed people to actually winning an election. To participate in the Iowa caucus, you need to be a registered Republican in the state of Iowa who is willing to give up a good chunk of your evening to go vote. Of the other early states, only South Carolina is an open primary, meaning any registered voter can participate, and New Hampshire requires you to be a Republican or unaffiliated (and you become a registered Republican by participating). Nevada and Florida are closed to party members. If the people saying they support Trump are regular GOP voters, then the campaign doesn't need to be a miracle worker, but if they're tapping into a vein of dissatisfied moderates and conservatives, many of whom aren't already registered GOP voters or regular voters at all, they need to find them, register them, and turn them out, which is a lot of work.

As for what happens if Trump does win Iowa and/or NH, I think there will be tremendous pressure on the other candidates running to drop out and coalesce behind one or two Trump alternatives. Trump can plausibly win an early state with 25-35% of the vote if he puts together a real campaign. He will have a very difficult time getting above that level of support, so he'll have a very difficult time winning primaries if he's only facing 1-2 other people. Nominating Trump would be cause the party all sorts of short and long term problems. Every effort will be made to prevent it from happening, and so it won't happen. Even if he goes 3rd party from being pissed off and costs the GOP this election, it'd be miles better than nominating him.