Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! politics

Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby drsmooth » Fri Aug 07, 2015 16:23:53

karn wrote:Aren't those ratings numbers startling? And that every instant feedback poll showed Trump dominatingly victorious when he clearly wasn't superior rhetorically or substantively? Doesn't it become harder to predict what might happen when you have the general public latching onto this which they seem to be? Is the expectation still that interest will simply dwindle over time? Doesn't there needs to be some crucial moment where he's dumped from the race and everyone understands "Ok, that kind of guy can never be president"?


We live in disturbed times, Karn. Reason itself is increasingly in disrepute.

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

..what rough beast, its toupee blown askew in the propwash,
Slouches towards Washington to be elected?
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby drsmooth » Fri Aug 07, 2015 16:34:15

exp
Last edited by drsmooth on Fri Aug 07, 2015 16:36:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby drsmooth » Fri Aug 07, 2015 16:34:15

jerseyhoya wrote:The ratings are startling. I wouldn't put any credence in online polls showing Trump 'winning' the debate. They're non random samples so all it says is there's a committed core of people who like Trump and go to Drudge or whatever.

I don't think there's going to be a clear cut moment where he implodes, but more a death by a series of cuts - the McCain remarks, hits on his liberal positions, his uninspiring debate performances, whatever gaffe comes next - and some of the conservative opinion leaders who have been positive on his candidacy will shift toward neutral, while those who have been neutral will be more negative, if he maintains his lead in the polls.

We've seen boomlets with people like Cain and Perry and Gingrich last cycle, and I think it's likely this will end up going in that direction in the next couple of months. Even if it doesn't there's a big distance between having a lead in a national (or state) poll when you call randomly dialed people to actually winning an election. To participate in the Iowa caucus, you need to be a registered Republican in the state of Iowa who is willing to give up a good chunk of your evening to go vote. Of the other early states, only South Carolina is an open primary, meaning any registered voter can participate, and New Hampshire requires you to be a Republican or unaffiliated (and you become a registered Republican by participating). Nevada and Florida are closed to party members. If the people saying they support Trump are regular GOP voters, then the campaign doesn't need to be a miracle worker, but if they're tapping into a vein of dissatisfied moderates and conservatives, many of whom aren't already registered GOP voters or regular voters at all, they need to find them, register them, and turn them out, which is a lot of work.

As for what happens if Trump does win Iowa and/or NH, I think there will be tremendous pressure on the other candidates running to drop out and coalesce behind one or two Trump alternatives. Trump can plausibly win an early state with 25-35% of the vote if he puts together a real campaign. He will have a very difficult time getting above that level of support, so he'll have a very difficult time winning primaries if he's only facing 1-2 other people. Nominating Trump would be cause the party all sorts of short and long term problems. Every effort will be made to prevent it from happening, and so it won't happen. Even if he goes 3rd party from being pissed off and costs the GOP this election, it'd be miles better than nominating him.


This is easily the best summary of the state of debate affairs that I've seen anywhere yet.

The NYTimes, is, achh, it's hard to disparage their 'reporting' with sufficient ridicule
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby karn » Fri Aug 07, 2015 16:41:24

That is true, drsmooth. I watched the replay and was kind of marveled at how the whole thing was set up and presented. Very dizzying disorienting television interspersed with tweets and videos that bordered on surreal. Cheers to the production team

And thanks JH for the lengthy response, that sounds reasonable and probably still the likely scenario. I'll just be interested to see the directions it goes because I think it's approaching the territory of fairly unique, at least in modern American politics. For what they were, Gingrich and Cain were much smaller stories compared to what this is becoming

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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby drsmooth » Fri Aug 07, 2015 17:11:56

Trump reminds me unnervingly of DeNiro's Rupert Pupkin:



some of DeNiro's & Scorcese's best work btw
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby swishnicholson » Fri Aug 07, 2015 17:27:29

I've alternated voting for who won the debate between Trump, who was clearly the most compelling guy up there, and Kasich, who came closest to convincing me that the Republican nominee need not be a scary buffoon.

Needless to say it's unlikely I'll vote for either, or will even have the opportunity to.
"No woman can call herself free who does not control her own body."

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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby Phan In Phlorida » Fri Aug 07, 2015 17:34:18

pacino wrote:missile defense in Poland had to do with long-range missile from Iran, not Russia; Walker doesn't know anything about foreign affairs it would seem.

or geography
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby Phan In Phlorida » Fri Aug 07, 2015 18:04:40

jerseyhoya wrote:Schumer comes out against the Iran deal - long statement with his many issues with the agreement. I guess the future leader of the Senate Democrats is siding with the Iranian hardliners too now.

Not really surprising. He's Jewish, and as doc said, he knows where the votes lie and knows his vote won't matter. He's playing both sides of the fence.

Prognosticators prognosticating that Schumer just suicided the leader gig.
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby Phan In Phlorida » Fri Aug 07, 2015 18:06:40

jerseyhoya wrote:The RNC has been considering making a pledge to support the eventual nominee a requirement for inclusion in future debates.
A pledge signed in blood. The price is your soul. BUWAHAHAHA :twisted:
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby Phan In Phlorida » Fri Aug 07, 2015 18:20:27

pacino wrote:wow these guys are really scared of Iran.


Editor wrote:wow these guys' benefactors are really scared of opposed to Iranian oil hitting the market.

Editor's note: insertions are red
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby Bucky » Fri Aug 07, 2015 18:44:16

I saw $2.29 down here in S. Jersey the other day. Go Iran deal!!

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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby Phan In Phlorida » Fri Aug 07, 2015 18:47:41

jerseyhoya wrote:24 million people watched last night. 18.9 million people voted in the 2012 Republican Presidential primaries. 23.3 million watched the last big event at Quicken Loans - Game 6 of the NBA Finals. I was expecting maybe 12 mil or so.

Trump was the center ring main attraction. People like a circus.
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby Phan In Phlorida » Fri Aug 07, 2015 18:53:18

Bucky wrote:I saw $2.29 down here in S. Jersey the other day. Go Iran deal!!

Industry analysts sayin' the Iran deal will drop the price to under $2 by winter.

I drive a muscle car. My man-junk is all excite!
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby The Nightman Cometh » Fri Aug 07, 2015 18:57:09

Going to be really frustrating if Booker votes against the Iran deal
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby drsmooth » Fri Aug 07, 2015 19:35:33

Phan In Phlorida wrote:Prognosticators prognosticating that Schumer just suicided the leader gig.


I think that he just may be the catbird sitting on that fence he's playing both sides of, PiP. What if there were circumstances that enabled him to secure that leadership slot in exchange for his help in ensuring the minimum veto-proof vote count, and oh, the chance to engage in a modest public ritual display of support for Bibi? Wouldn't be the 1st time 6-pointed stars aligned. Maybe it would just work out that way on its own; or maybe there has been some quiet maneuvering. Kaine's declaration of support earlier in the week may have been a more important indicator than Schumer's news - in fact, may have set the stage for the latter.

I'm waaay too ignorant of way too many details of this thing to have any particular insight on it, but it just feels like the strategic design of this entire thing would be of much more fascination to our resident vote-counters and political structuralists than it apparently is.
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby pacino » Fri Aug 07, 2015 20:40:53

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Going to be really frustrating if Booker votes against the Iran deal

He's not a great legislator
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby drsmooth » Fri Aug 07, 2015 21:03:23

The Nightman Cometh wrote:Going to be really frustrating if Booker votes against the Iran deal


Given that several Sen. Dems may do so essentially without consequence, I'm curious about the politics of who "gets" to do so; how that resolves
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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Fri Aug 07, 2015 21:51:49

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status ... 1303552001

Lmao he is amazing. Just when you think he can't sink any lower.

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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby SK790 » Fri Aug 07, 2015 22:22:05

Bucky wrote:I saw $2.29 down here in S. Jersey the other day. Go Iran deal!!

For real? It's still $3.30ish in Seattle.
I like teh waether

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Re: Trump problem? Combover here and say it to my face! poli

Unread postby Bucky » Fri Aug 07, 2015 22:25:28

Yep, and I just paid $2.39 at wawa yesterday. Sure hope this holds because I can't take another year of $5k heating oil bill

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