Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby traderdave » Fri Oct 25, 2013 13:40:02

Aasif Mandvi gets a guy "fired":

http://tv.yahoo.com/news/republican-pre ... 57019.html


Good thing there is no further need for the Voting Rights Act; right, John Roberts?

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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby drsmooth » Fri Oct 25, 2013 13:49:04

Werthless wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Link

By pointing to Part D's failures, you're making an argument that the federal government cannot effectively and cost effectively provide healthcare services.


The government is not providing healthcare services in either Medicare Part D or under ACA. Services are still provided by clinicians, generally not employed by governmental entities. The benefit design parameters, payment promises and an assortment of administrative funcitons are the government's purview.

Lots of people make this mistake, which frequently leads to subsequent confusion in further conversation about how these programs work.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Fri Oct 25, 2013 14:46:24

jerseyhoya wrote:
One recent poll, conducted by Rutgers University, showed that 74 percent of likely voters along the Jersey Shore are supporting him.

The backlash is ferocious.

I think most people understand they're doing everything they can, it's just a terrible situation.


There's a lot under the covers though--first, all the Shore counties are at least Republican leaning. Second, while there are some lowish income areas along the shore, some of the hardest hit areas are relatively affluent and I'd assume many of those people have substantial resources to deal with whatever they need to deal with. The north coast of Monmouth County might be one exception. I guess what you could call the "Bayshore" area--Cheesequake, Cliffwood Beach, South River, etc.) were hard hit as well, but that's Middlesex County, and not really considered the Shore. Finally, a lot of lower income people haven't moved back--how would the survey count them?
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby SK790 » Fri Oct 25, 2013 19:48:01

jerseyhoya wrote:It isn't even a poor disaster response. It's just less than perfect (though a tremendous amount of progress has been made). Lots of people lost everything, and most of the disappointment is with insurance companies rather than the state, but you can't undo a lot of the damage.

To be honest I'm not even sure what we code Jersey Shore to be at the poll (I think Monmouth/Ocean/Atlantic/Cape May), but whatever it is, a Republican candidate running statewide in New Jersey hasn't won 74% of the vote in a single county in any statewide race since 1985. GHWB getting 72% in Sussex in 1998 is the only time a Republican has broken 70% in any county, and Christie is set to do it along the entire shore region. Clearly, they hate how he's handled things.

The article linked clearly stated that Christie could be pressuring insurance companies and debt collectors to take it easy on those effected, did it not? Seems like Christie is passing the buck.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Oct 25, 2013 20:15:39

JFLNYC wrote:Judging politicains' effectiveness by their poll number seems a perilous route for Republicans.

Whether someone is going to vote for you is probably the best way to measure whether people think you're being helpful on their behalf or they think you're breaking promises to them/not doing a good job.

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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Oct 25, 2013 20:28:53

TenuredVulture wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
One recent poll, conducted by Rutgers University, showed that 74 percent of likely voters along the Jersey Shore are supporting him.

The backlash is ferocious.

I think most people understand they're doing everything they can, it's just a terrible situation.

There's a lot under the covers though--first, all the Shore counties are at least Republican leaning. Second, while there are some lowish income areas along the shore, some of the hardest hit areas are relatively affluent and I'd assume many of those people have substantial resources to deal with whatever they need to deal with. The north coast of Monmouth County might be one exception. I guess what you could call the "Bayshore" area--Cheesequake, Cliffwood Beach, South River, etc.) were hard hit as well, but that's Middlesex County, and not really considered the Shore. Finally, a lot of lower income people haven't moved back--how would the survey count them?

Well sure, we'll see what happens in a few weeks. The poll could be wrong (note: this is the same pool of respondents who had Booker beating Lonegan by 22, so it's already been wrong once!). Subsamples have higher margins for error, and people who used to live in those counties presumably would count elsewhere, though a lot of people who are out of their houses are renting nearby. But it's my sense most people who've been affected think he and the state have done a pretty good job given the circumstances, at least going off of people I know. A lot of people are still displaced or suffering from the effects in other ways, and some subset of them are probably not pleased with Christie or the state, and some further subset of them probably have legitimate grips, but with such a big catastrophe not everything's gonna be perfect. His passion, energy and focus on working with national figures and local leaders on fixing things that were broken are clear as day to anyone paying attention.

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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Oct 25, 2013 20:30:16

SK790 wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:It isn't even a poor disaster response. It's just less than perfect (though a tremendous amount of progress has been made). Lots of people lost everything, and most of the disappointment is with insurance companies rather than the state, but you can't undo a lot of the damage.

To be honest I'm not even sure what we code Jersey Shore to be at the poll (I think Monmouth/Ocean/Atlantic/Cape May), but whatever it is, a Republican candidate running statewide in New Jersey hasn't won 74% of the vote in a single county in any statewide race since 1985. GHWB getting 72% in Sussex in 1998 is the only time a Republican has broken 70% in any county, and Christie is set to do it along the entire shore region. Clearly, they hate how he's handled things.

The article linked clearly stated that Christie could be pressuring insurance companies and debt collectors to take it easy on those effected, did it not? Seems like Christie is passing the buck.

It didn't say whether him writing letters would be effective. If they thought it would help and was a reasonable thing to do, I'm sure they'd be doing it. Not really sure how that's passing the buck in any case.

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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby pacino » Fri Oct 25, 2013 20:44:59

traderdave wrote:Aasif Mandvi gets a guy "fired":

http://tv.yahoo.com/news/republican-pre ... 57019.html


Good thing there is no further need for the Voting Rights Act; right, John Roberts?

“When a n—– can use the word n—– and it not be considered racist, that’s the utmost racism in the world, and it’s hypocrisy,” he told me, a reporter calling to see if he’d been unfairly branded a racist.

Yelton said Republicans had lost an opportunity to use his statements as proof that they are open to all views.

“They can turn it into a positive if they want to,” said Yelton, 66. “The party does not try to control the speech of individuals. That’s the point they could have made. You have to let people have an opinion.”
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby JFLNYC » Fri Oct 25, 2013 21:51:08

jerseyhoya wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:Judging politicains' effectiveness by their poll number seems a perilous route for Republicans.

Whether someone is going to vote for you is probably the best way to measure whether people think you're being helpful on their behalf or they think you're breaking promises to them/not doing a good job.


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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby SK790 » Fri Oct 25, 2013 22:30:45

jerseyhoya wrote:
SK790 wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:It isn't even a poor disaster response. It's just less than perfect (though a tremendous amount of progress has been made). Lots of people lost everything, and most of the disappointment is with insurance companies rather than the state, but you can't undo a lot of the damage.

To be honest I'm not even sure what we code Jersey Shore to be at the poll (I think Monmouth/Ocean/Atlantic/Cape May), but whatever it is, a Republican candidate running statewide in New Jersey hasn't won 74% of the vote in a single county in any statewide race since 1985. GHWB getting 72% in Sussex in 1998 is the only time a Republican has broken 70% in any county, and Christie is set to do it along the entire shore region. Clearly, they hate how he's handled things.

The article linked clearly stated that Christie could be pressuring insurance companies and debt collectors to take it easy on those effected, did it not? Seems like Christie is passing the buck.

It didn't say whether him writing letters would be effective. If they thought it would help and was a reasonable thing to do, I'm sure they'd be doing it. Not really sure how that's passing the buck in any case.

"Well, it may not work, so why even bother" should be the 2016 Republican slogan.

I find it extremely disingenuous for you to critize Obama for passing the buck on the heathcare.gov problems, but refuse to acknowledge that Christie is basically doing the same thing with Sandy relief. In fairness, I don't think Obama or Christie is fully to blame, but you can't criticize one while completely exonerating the other.

Here's what bothers me about that article:

The governor’s office noted that $8 billion in federal aid had already been distributed, and that the administration had established 17 federally approved assistance programs for victims. In answering the criticism at a hearing on Tuesday, his office said that 100 homeowners, out of 4,100 approved for rebuilding grants, had signed contracts with builders, suggesting that the logjam was slowly easing.

sound familiar?

He set high expectations for recovery, initially promising that the shore would be open by Memorial Day, then pushing it to the Fourth of July, and only more recently saying that recovery would take 18 to 24 months. For months, some storm victims have hounded him on Twitter, complaining with hashtags like #redtape and saying that the shore is #notokay, despite the images of the rebuilt boardwalks on television.

nothing like moving those goalposts by a year or 2.

Criticism of the governor crystallized this summer around the “Stronger Than the Storm” ads, intended to encourage tourism. The Asbury Park Press reported in August that the firm hired to run the campaign, a lobbying and public affairs company led by a prominent Democratic fund-raiser who had recently brought on well-connected Republicans, had been chosen over an advertising firm that had bid 40 percent less but that did not propose using the governor’s family in the spots. The firm chosen then hired an advertising agency that already worked for state agencies.

I wonder if that ~2MM could have helped some people out rather than trying to score some political points for the Gov.

None of this in isolation really upsets me, it's how politics works and I'm sure it's not Christie's fault entirely that everything is not running as smoothly as planned, just like I'm sure it's not all Obama's fault that healthcare.gov's launch has been touch and go.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Oct 25, 2013 23:07:54

The comparison of Christie on Sandy to Obama on healthcare.gov is beyond laughable. Healthcare.gov is the website that the Obama administration created to help facilitate the enactment of its signature policy achievement of its first term. They set the parameters/deadlines/objectives. It was all voluntary and their idea. Sandy wasn't Chris Christie's policy brainchild. It was a catastrophic, once in a generation type storm that destroyed a big chunk of the state. Running into problems in responding to a cataclysmic outside event is different than not living up to basic expectations from your own law. When you are the person that starts the ball rolling on a program, you own subsequent difficulties in a way that someone reacting to an unexpected natural disaster does not.

And the shore was open by Memorial Day, although it will take years for it to be back to normal. It was important for him to keep pushing a positive line to get people down there visiting to help out the storeowners and everyone else who relies on Summer tourism to make their living. If you went down this summer, chances are things were things were different than in the past depending on what beach you go to, but most of the stores were open and the ocean was still there. Huge gulf between 'open' and 'fully recovered'.
Last edited by jerseyhoya on Sat Oct 26, 2013 01:07:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Fri Oct 25, 2013 23:17:00

jerseyhoya wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
One recent poll, conducted by Rutgers University, showed that 74 percent of likely voters along the Jersey Shore are supporting him.

The backlash is ferocious.

I think most people understand they're doing everything they can, it's just a terrible situation.

There's a lot under the covers though--first, all the Shore counties are at least Republican leaning. Second, while there are some lowish income areas along the shore, some of the hardest hit areas are relatively affluent and I'd assume many of those people have substantial resources to deal with whatever they need to deal with. The north coast of Monmouth County might be one exception. I guess what you could call the "Bayshore" area--Cheesequake, Cliffwood Beach, South River, etc.) were hard hit as well, but that's Middlesex County, and not really considered the Shore. Finally, a lot of lower income people haven't moved back--how would the survey count them?

Well sure, we'll see what happens in a few weeks. The poll could be wrong (note: this is the same pool of respondents who had Booker beating Lonegan by 22, so it's already been wrong once!). Subsamples have higher margins for error, and people who used to live in those counties presumably would count elsewhere, though a lot of people who are out of their houses are renting nearby. But it's my sense most people who've been affected think he and the state have done a pretty good job given the circumstances, at least going off of people I know. A lot of people are still displaced or suffering from the effects in other ways, and some subset of them are probably not pleased with Christie or the state, and some further subset of them probably have legitimate grips, but with such a big catastrophe not everything's gonna be perfect. His passion, energy and focus on working with national figures and local leaders on fixing things that were broken are clear as day to anyone paying attention.


All I was trying to say is that Sandy fuckups probably aren't going to hit Christie much, for reason I listed. I do know that Booker isn't especially popular on the shore, even among libs.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby SK790 » Sat Oct 26, 2013 03:11:19

jerseyhoya wrote:The comparison of Christie on Sandy to Obama on healthcare.gov is beyond laughable. Healthcare.gov is the website that the Obama administration created to help facilitate the enactment of its signature policy achievement of its first term. They set the parameters/deadlines/objectives. It was all voluntary and their idea. Sandy wasn't Chris Christie's policy brainchild. It was a catastrophic, once in a generation type storm that destroyed a big chunk of the state. Running into problems in responding to a cataclysmic outside event is different than not living up to basic expectations from your own law. When you are the person that starts the ball rolling on a program, you own subsequent difficulties in a way that someone reacting to an unexpected natural disaster does not.

And the shore was open by Memorial Day, although it will take years for it to be back to normal. It was important for him to keep pushing a positive line to get people down there visiting to help out the storeowners and everyone else who relies on Summer tourism to make their living. If you went down this summer, chances are things were things were different than in the past depending on what beach you go to, but most of the stores were open and the ocean was still there. Huge gulf between 'open' and 'fully recovered'.

I can point out that you've had completely different viewpoints on two different politicians somewhat passing the buck on mishandling a situation without them both being 100% the same. Obviously they're different.

As far as the point you make toward the end of the first paragraph, has there ever been any law that makes major changes to some kind of government system that hasn't had major issues at it's implement? It seems like any time any kind of major changes gets put into law, it takes awhile for it to run like it's supposed to. I'm not sure why everyone is surprised.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby drsmooth » Sat Oct 26, 2013 07:32:27

jerseyhoya wrote:Sandy wasn't Chris Christie's policy brainchild. It was a catastrophic, once in a generation type storm that destroyed a big chunk of the state. Running into problems in responding to a cataclysmic outside event is different than not living up to basic expectations from your own law.


The common strand is more like "two big projects that no one charged with delivering solutions has done often". And no, no one has "done" enrollment-data-conformation wrangling among health insurers at the scale of the ACA project. You'd think something like it would have been resolved long ago; the industry itself took a few stabs at it over the past generation or so and mostly failed, not due to technical incapability but mostly due to the vagaries of stakeholder politics.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby drsmooth » Sat Oct 26, 2013 07:32:28

what the...?
Last edited by drsmooth on Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:57:02, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby CalvinBall » Sat Oct 26, 2013 09:35:03

i think we covered it but can someone talk about blue cross dropping 45 percent of their policy holders in the philly area?

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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Sat Oct 26, 2013 10:40:20

Addressing the budget issue should be quite simple. The difficult step is to get people to recognize that various tax deductions (for instance the fact that health insurance provided by an employer amounts to tax free income or the mortgage interest deduction) are from an economic and fiscal perspective, expenditures. So, by cutting those things, you are in fact shrinking government and cutting spending, not raising taxes. This is of course not easy, since there are legions of interest groups that will try to convince you otherwise. But they are liars.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/mon ... not-alone/

So, that's one approach. Maybe you combine it with an overall lowering of rates. Or maybe you just do a little at the edges--maybe you don't touch the mortgage deduction or health insurance now, but go after other deductions, particularly on the corporate side. But you don't make it revenue neutral, you make it revenue positive, because it's really a spending cut.

But the real deal is to trade off sequester spending for entitlement reforms. And you have to reform those entitlements, especially medicare. People are going to like it. But you get people to come around on it through a judicious use of pork and current spending. Use the short termism of most political actors to your advantage.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby drsmooth » Sat Oct 26, 2013 12:53:21

CalvinBall wrote:i think we covered it but can someone talk about blue cross dropping 45 percent of their policy holders in the philly area?


1) individual health insurance policies cover about 5% of the population nationally. It may be a smaller share in large urban areas. Independence BC provides health benefits to a heapload of people in the Philadelphia area; the "45% of policyholders" is about 24,000 people, a very small fraction of the total people Independence provides health benefits for.

2) They aren't precisely "dropping" them - they've sent them a stupidly-worded letter telling them their ACA-noncompliant policies are being cancelled.

Instead of saying something like

"We're writing to let you know that the inadequate policy we allowed someone to sell you in the past is being cancelled because it doesn't meet new federal standards for minimally adequate coverage. We will roll you into a policy that meets those standards if you like, but if you want to choose another policy, go to [name of website] or call [customer service line]"

Independence has written some DMV-grade punitive sounding crap no one running an actual business and hoping to retain customers would ever allow to be mailed to current customers on their letterhead.
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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby dajafi » Sat Oct 26, 2013 13:00:10

When we went down the shore Labor Day week, I had a conversation with a bakery owner who felt like Christie had if anything overstated the devastation early--to press the case for federal relief--then did the "Stronger than the Storm" ads too late to draw back people who'd made alternative vacation plans, but perfectly timed to bolster his own political fortunes. She said that local business was down about 40 percent for the summer, while shore communities in Delaware and Maryland had a really great year.

I don't think this was anything like malice on Christie's part, but it seemed like a valid argument against him.

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Re: Last I Checked, It's still 2013 - Politics Thread

Postby TenuredVulture » Sat Oct 26, 2013 13:02:08

I do think the widespread disdain most people I know for the Stronger than the Storm song should cost Christie who claims to be a Springsteen fan more than a few votes. I'd say that alone is a bigger abomination than any ACA website glitch.
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