http://americablog.com/2012/10/romney-s ... event.html

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/3 ... etail=hide

Great guy. Really caring.

John Nolte ‏@NolteNC
Christie going overboard with Obama love. Will be remembered by some of us when he runs for prez, esp if Romney loses close one.

nolte never forgets

Soren wrote:http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/romney-donating-sandy-supplies-only-to-gop-swing-states-not-nj-or-ny/politics/2012/10/30/52648

What a guy.

If true, what a scumbag.

One of my biggest annoyances with the elections is when there's a poll and they say "____ is ahead by 3 points, but that's within the margin of error so it's tied!". I'm almost positive that's not how it works.

bleh wrote:One of my biggest annoyances with the elections is when there's a poll and they say "____ is ahead by 3 points, but that's within the margin of error so it's tied!". I'm almost positive that's not how it works.

The margin of error is more or less the range that they expect the mean of a sample value(in this case proportion) to fall in. IOW, repeatedly sampling the population, the mean of a sample proportions of Obama/probable voters will fall within that margin of error.

I think. I failed that test in stat like 2 weeks ago.

well yeah, but people act like a 47-44 poll result in favor of a candidate is basically invalid because the moe was +/- 3%

been reading a lot of conservative opinions of what their issue with the polling seems to be. they're basically

-- banking on 2008 being an outlier in terms of the low white voter turnout (it dropped by 2.9% compared to 2004, when it had been dropping at around 1.3-1.5% before that)
-- the independent vote in state polls seem to be favoring romney (+20 for romney in the latest VA q-pac poll) but he is still losing overall to obama

if their concerns about the state poll sampling turnout to be right and romney wins, most major pollsters will have fucked up their party ID sampling because at the moment most of them seem to be consistently favoring obama.

Soren wrote:

bleh wrote:One of my biggest annoyances with the elections is when there's a poll and they say "____ is ahead by 3 points, but that's within the margin of error so it's tied!". I'm almost positive that's not how it works.

The margin of error is more or less the range that they expect the mean of a sample value(in this case proportion) to fall in. IOW, repeatedly sampling the population, the mean of a sample proportions of Obama/probable voters will fall within that margin of error.

I think. I failed that test in stat like 2 weeks ago.

I know but just because it's within the margin of error doesn't mean it's tied. That's even less accurate than saying the person ahead is winning.

bleh wrote:One of my biggest annoyances with the elections is when there's a poll and they say "____ is ahead by 3 points, but that's within the margin of error so it's tied!". I'm almost positive that's not how it works.

Does anyone really say that? Usually I hear it phrased as something like "it's too close to call" or "a dead heat," but not based on a 3 point difference w/ a MOE of 3 or 5.

At least from the analysts. Maybe the moron anchor-type people, but I never pay attention to them.

Soren wrote:http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/romney-donating-sandy-supplies-only-to-gop-swing-states-not-nj-or-ny/politics/2012/10/30/52648

What a guy.

What am I supposed to get outraged about here?

jerseyhoya wrote:

Soren wrote:http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/romney-donating-sandy-supplies-only-to-gop-swing-states-not-nj-or-ny/politics/2012/10/30/52648

What a guy.

What am I supposed to get outraged about here?

If true, then Romney is using his donations solely to curry favor in swing states, and not to help those most in need. New Jersey and New York were undoubtedly hit the hardest, and are relatively solid blue states. Holding back aide to those states is selfish - even the aide is going to those who also need it.

is it weird that romney has not taken a question from the press pool following him around in 3 weeks now?

slugsrbad wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

Soren wrote:http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/romney-donating-sandy-supplies-only-to-gop-swing-states-not-nj-or-ny/politics/2012/10/30/52648

What a guy.

What am I supposed to get outraged about here?

If true, then Romney is using his donations solely to curry favor in swing states, and not to help those most in need. New Jersey and New York were undoubtedly hit the hardest, and are relatively solid blue states. Holding back aide to those states is selfish - even the aide is going to those who also need it.

But the story says the stuff was given to the Red Cross in New Jersey, which was what the Romney campaign said they were going to do with it yesterday.

The link isn't working for me right now, but I thought the RC wasn't accepting food donations?

Two takes on the national/state poll divergence from Nate Silver and Sean Trende.

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:The link isn't working for me right now, but I thought the RC wasn't accepting food donations?

Yep. Team Romney is doing it rong

td11 wrote:John Nolte ‏@NolteNC
Christie going overboard with Obama love. Will be remembered by some of us when he runs for prez, esp if Romney loses close one.

nolte never forgets

This is just what I was talking about above. Not sure if Christie is being calculating, or just emotional.

jerseyhoya wrote:

Soren wrote:http://thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/romney-donating-sandy-supplies-only-to-gop-swing-states-not-nj-or-ny/politics/2012/10/30/52648

What a guy.

What am I supposed to get outraged about here?

1) He turned a campaign event into a charity photo op
2) He only promised aid at first to swing states, NJ was added later

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics ... ent/58529/

If you want to make a donation, make a fucking donation. Don't try and turn a campaign stop into a relief effort.

jerseyhoya wrote:Two takes on the national/state poll divergence from Nate Silver and Sean Trende.

This sort of points to what I tried to say a few days ago, but that I don't think I said as well as I should have. The problem with percentage-based forecasting is that, ultimately, there is no way to falsify it. How will we ever know whether the President having a 78% chance of winning re-election was close to the right percentage? We can't run it 1,000 times and find out... it will either come out one way, or the other. If Romney wins and Nate says he only had a 22% chance of winning, does that make Nate wrong? Or does it just mean he had a 1 in 5 chance and this was that 1-5 time? Nate can always claim the latter, and how would we ever be able to contradict it?

mozartpc27 wrote:

td11 wrote:John Nolte ‏@NolteNC
Christie going overboard with Obama love. Will be remembered by some of us when he runs for prez, esp if Romney loses close one.

nolte never forgets

This is just what I was talking about above. Not sure if Christie is being calculating, or just emotional.

Look, I am as cynical as the next guy with regard to anything Christie says/does but is it possible, just possible, that he is simply genuinely appreciative of the support of our sitting President? I mean, Christie was as critical of Obama as anybody and he, as a Romney supporter and Republican, certainly has no incentive to make Obama look good.

I am not sure why I feel this way but I would be surprised if this were some "means to an end" play by Christie. Love him or hate him, it is impossible to deny that Chris Christie is 100% New Jerseyan. I think he is truly hurt and saddened by the destruction of his home state and it shows.