hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Werthless » Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:15:55

dajafi wrote:Are you saying that because Democrats are nearly as bad as Republicans on a few issues--or at least were willing to be "yes men" on some of those awful things--the differences on torture, equality, investment, starting wars vs. ending wars are meaningless? Or because Obama might make some similar mistakes--though I doubt it, given the judgment he and his team have shown on the big stuff vs. that of Romney's Bush advisers--in future? That's nihilistic even for a when-i-feel-like-it (IOW, when women's rights and reproductive choices aren't involved) libertarian.

And on education policy, you need to read my post again. :) I am pretty much sure the good instinct that informed NCLB (and aid in Africa) is dead on that side in the Tea Party age. That's what I'm saying. They're actually getting worse, as the Bennetts and Lugars give way to the Mourdocks and Akins.

Timing and context matter. Obviously I don't like Romney, but I think 30 years ago someone of his profile would have been a fine president: he's smart, manages well and seems to have some personal ethics (no big scandals during his governorship). But the modern Republican Party is unhinged, and I don't imagine he'll do much if anything to restrain the absolutists. Things we might both want--overhaul of the tax code or immigration reform--won't happen in the established form (bipartisan, product of compromise) when the governing authority doesn't even recognize the legitimacy of their opposition. You in particular, as a pox-on-both-houses type, should oppose them as you would any group that believes it has a monopoly on truth and righteousness despite the lousy track record I described.

Libertarianism is not freedom to do whatever the hell you please. If you want to sum it up, it's freedom to do whatever the hell you please when it doesnt negatively affect someone else. That you can't/won't acknowledge how that may apply to abortion speaks more to you than to me.

Again, the whole point of my post was that yours had little to do with Romney. And you're still going on and on about the tea party. Again, if abortion is very dear to you, as it is for many of you, then you should probably vote for Obama. But dont pretend that Romney is going to hurt the economy more than anything Obama would do.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Werthless » Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:17:50

td11 wrote:
So, what gives? Why is Obama — at least according to the Post-ABC data — having so much trouble with independents?

The answer lies in the fact that most independents are not, well, independent. Of all the likely voters who called themselves independents in nine days of the Post-ABC tracking poll, fully three-quarters (75 percent) — said they tend to lean toward one party or the other. (The remainder are known as “pure” independents.)

And it’s among those shadow partisans that Obama is struggling. Ninety-two percent of Republican-leaning independents said they plan to support Romney, while 84 percent of Democratic-leaning independents are backing Obama.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... story.html

My mother in law calls herself indepedent. I don't know if she has ever voted for a Democrat.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby td11 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:48:11

i think since some point yesterday if you click on the donate button on the obama campaign's page it takes you to the red cross disaster relief fund. good guy obama
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby CalvinBall » Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:10:22

National polls tightening. Rasmussen down to a two point lead for Romney. They also have him up two in Ohio.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Bucky » Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:11:46

Imagine all the message board bandwidth that would be required if they let people vote over a two week period and released results as they came in

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby dajafi » Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:45:23

Werthless wrote:Again, the whole point of my post was that yours had little to do with Romney. And you're still going on and on about the tea party. Again, if abortion is very dear to you, as it is for many of you, then you should probably vote for Obama. But dont pretend that Romney is going to hurt the economy more than anything Obama would do.


There's a sense in which you're right, and I think I acknowledged that by saying that I think with a different Republican Party behind him, Romney would be a fine president. But I'm going on and on about the Tea Party because their empowerment on social issues (and make no mistake, that's their real priority), and that of the neocons on war, will be the direct result of his taking office.

As for "hurting the economy," I share what seems to be the pundit consensus that, short term, things will get better as far as employment and aggregate growth whichever of them wins next week. (This is assuming that Romney would defer the austerity measures his campaign sometimes threatens; Hubbard and Mankiew are too smart to really back that up.) But as I've written here many times, I think long-term economic competitiveness has most to do with human capital and next most to do with infrastructure. In terms of how the two nominees would invest or disinvest in education and infrastructure, I think Obama's plans are far, far more likely to support long-term growth than Romney's, which flows directly from their divergent beliefs about government's capacity and obligation to support those not already doing well.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby td11 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:59:23

Erie @Erie
Giant truck outside of Columbus, Ohio early voting center reads "Vote character, not color." Hmmm... pic.twitter.com/zev3Y2jT

Image
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby CalvinBall » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:06:40

romney cancelled his events for today and tomorrow. didnt want to look bad.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby drsmooth » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:10:36

Werthless wrote: But dont pretend that Romney is going to hurt the economy more than anything Obama would do.


convince me that Romney's idea of simplifying the tax code consists of more than arranging direct deposit of his cut to a caymans account
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby td11 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:16:21

jerseyhoya wrote:An Ohio poll tied at 49-49 where they push leaners and push indies to id with the party they lean to (D+3 sample, which seems realistic). Poll apparently has a very good track record.


this was pre-debate and the moe was +10 among independents
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:17:01

td11 wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:An Ohio poll tied at 49-49 where they push leaners and push indies to id with the party they lean to (D+3 sample, which seems realistic). Poll apparently has a very good track record.


this was pre-debate and the moe was +10 among independents

Because they push indies to id with the party they lean to

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby drsmooth » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:17:12

Christie providing the most entertaining gubernatorial storm teevee so far

Malloy's a cub scout, and Cuomo - is he even governor of a state with shoreline in this game? Hard to tell
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Stay_Disappointed » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:45:21

mozartpc27 wrote:Yeah, I'm back to worried sick about the election. Good thing I already have a dog, cause I's scared.

Someone hold me and tell me it's going to be alright.


no matter who wins can't see much if any legislation getting passed through congress anyway. would like to thank the republicans in the house and senate for setting a great blueprint for this. i mean if romney wins i would hope that the dems focus on nothing more than making him a one term prez and just filibuster everything.
the one thing i am scared about would be the supreme court. if obama somehow loses i would hope that a judge like ginsburg would retire immediately and let obama replace her.
I would rather see you lose than win myself

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby Youseff » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:55:06

Werthless wrote:
dajafi wrote:Are you saying that because Democrats are nearly as bad as Republicans on a few issues--or at least were willing to be "yes men" on some of those awful things--the differences on torture, equality, investment, starting wars vs. ending wars are meaningless? Or because Obama might make some similar mistakes--though I doubt it, given the judgment he and his team have shown on the big stuff vs. that of Romney's Bush advisers--in future? That's nihilistic even for a when-i-feel-like-it (IOW, when women's rights and reproductive choices aren't involved) libertarian.

And on education policy, you need to read my post again. :) I am pretty much sure the good instinct that informed NCLB (and aid in Africa) is dead on that side in the Tea Party age. That's what I'm saying. They're actually getting worse, as the Bennetts and Lugars give way to the Mourdocks and Akins.

Timing and context matter. Obviously I don't like Romney, but I think 30 years ago someone of his profile would have been a fine president: he's smart, manages well and seems to have some personal ethics (no big scandals during his governorship). But the modern Republican Party is unhinged, and I don't imagine he'll do much if anything to restrain the absolutists. Things we might both want--overhaul of the tax code or immigration reform--won't happen in the established form (bipartisan, product of compromise) when the governing authority doesn't even recognize the legitimacy of their opposition. You in particular, as a pox-on-both-houses type, should oppose them as you would any group that believes it has a monopoly on truth and righteousness despite the lousy track record I described.

Libertarianism is not freedom to do whatever the hell you please. If you want to sum it up, it's freedom to do whatever the hell you please when it doesnt negatively affect someone else. That you can't/won't acknowledge how that may apply to abortion speaks more to you than to me.

Again, the whole point of my post was that yours had little to do with Romney. And you're still going on and on about the tea party. Again, if abortion is very dear to you, as it is for many of you, then you should probably vote for Obama. But dont pretend that Romney is going to hurt the economy more than anything Obama would do.


I'm quiet certain a massive tax cut for the rich and gutting of social services would have an enormous impact, actually.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby dajafi » Mon Oct 29, 2012 13:08:13

Warszawa wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:Yeah, I'm back to worried sick about the election. Good thing I already have a dog, cause I's scared.

Someone hold me and tell me it's going to be alright.


no matter who wins can't see much if any legislation getting passed through congress anyway. would like to thank the republicans in the house and senate for setting a great blueprint for this. i mean if romney wins i would hope that the dems focus on nothing more than making him a one term prez and just filibuster everything.
the one thing i am scared about would be the supreme court. if obama somehow loses i would hope that a judge like ginsburg would retire immediately and let obama replace her.


What makes you think the Republicans, who've blocked so much of lesser import, would allow any Obama Supreme Court nominee (or any judicial nominee, or anyone down to dogcatcher) to get approved before Jan. 20?

If he loses, you're looking at one of two things: an activist Supreme Court farther right than anything we've seen in a century, or total scorched-earth warfare by the Democrats to block Romney nominees. I don't think the Democrats could do the second even if they wanted to. This is a problem with having a more ideologically diverse coalition: it would be fine for Chuck Schumer and Barbara Boxer to go all-out as partisan warriors, but Dem Senators in Arkansas or New Hampshire or Alaska or Colorado have to be very strategic regarding when they act as raw partisans and when they behave as though we weren't in a de facto parliamentary system. If McCaskill and Tester lose this year, it'll be because they were perceived as "acting too much like partisan Democrats."

It's more rare this happens to Republicans, though Scott Brown certainly is at risk of it this year and I hope it will do in Pat Toomey in four years.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby dajafi » Mon Oct 29, 2012 13:38:22

Pretty interesting take on the role of outside money in this year's cycle. I don't know if Paul is ghost-writing Edsall's stuff, but they seem to share a perspective on the positive role political parties can and should play.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby smitty » Mon Oct 29, 2012 14:01:33

Werthless wrote:
td11 wrote:
So, what gives? Why is Obama — at least according to the Post-ABC data — having so much trouble with independents?

The answer lies in the fact that most independents are not, well, independent. Of all the likely voters who called themselves independents in nine days of the Post-ABC tracking poll, fully three-quarters (75 percent) — said they tend to lean toward one party or the other. (The remainder are known as “pure” independents.)

And it’s among those shadow partisans that Obama is struggling. Ninety-two percent of Republican-leaning independents said they plan to support Romney, while 84 percent of Democratic-leaning independents are backing Obama.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... story.html

My mother in law calls herself indepedent. I don't know if she has ever voted for a Democrat.


Is someone who voted for Jerry Ford, Ronald Reagan, George Bush the elder, Bill Clinton, Ralph Nader, Kerry and Obama and a mix of Democrats and Republicans for House and Senate (both national and state) and other state and local offices an Independent or not?

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby pacino » Mon Oct 29, 2012 14:02:00

dajafi wrote:Pretty interesting take on the role of outside money in this year's cycle. I don't know if Paul is ghost-writing Edsall's stuff, but they seem to share a perspective on the positive role political parties can and should play.

luckily, campaigns are able to buy adverts for much cheaper rates than outside groups, so that puts a bit of a dent into the ability for third-party actors to sway people.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby philliesphhan » Mon Oct 29, 2012 14:07:28

pacino wrote:imagine that, independents dont exist


It says they exist. Just that it's only 25% of those that say they are.
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Re: hardcore BATTLESHIP... the POLITICS thread

Postby td11 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 18:10:44

Glenn Thrush @GlennThrush
There will be a conservative @fivethirtyeight next cycle, book it @MikeGrunwald:
Details

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.@GlennThrush: 538 will be the "conservative 538" in 2016 if Ryan-Rubio are ahead in the polls in Ohio.
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