SNL is weak as heck

I'm guessing Obama is going to be visiting hurricane damaged VA Wednesday. Then, a stop in PA.

SNL is just pathetic at this point. i remember when they had a point with their political cold opens. i mean, why do it if you're just going to make fun of voices and such???mitt and barack deserve better parodies

oh. repeat. ugh. nevermind.

pacino wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:do you think there are undecideds???

I said independents, not undecideds. Sheesh.

yea, what a huuuuuge difference.

One is ~30% of the electorate in polls. One is ~3-6% of the electorate. It's practically the same thing!

But I'm the person who is #$!&@ stupid

yes, im a complete moron, thanks. except you decide to be purposefully obtuse with how people decide to post in this thread,

Not being purposefully obtuse...but I have no idea what you're trying to say here.

I yearn for the 7 weeks-and-done UK election system.

Anyone else reading about evidence of the primary being rigged for Romney and other past elections being rigged for Republicans in the voting machines? I can't pretend to know whether this is legit or not, but it just makes me angry knowing it's even possible thanks to shitty voting machines. We seriously need to stick to paper ballots.

http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/wp-co ... s_V2.0.pdf

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/10/27 ... or-romney/

Need MattS to weigh in on this.

An Ohio poll tied at 49-49 where they push leaners and push indies to id with the party they lean to (D+3 sample, which seems realistic). Poll apparently has a very good track record.

RCP Average 10/17 - 10/25 -- -- 48.0 45.7 Obama +2.3
Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
CNN/Opinion Research 10/23 - 10/25 741 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports 10/23 - 10/23 750 LV 4.0 48 48 Tie
Time 10/22 - 10/23 783 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
SurveyUSA 10/20 - 10/22 609 LV 4.1 47 44 Obama +3
Suffolk 10/18 - 10/21 600 LV 4.0 47 47 Tie
PPP (D) 10/18 - 10/20 532 LV 4.3 49 48 Obama +1
Gravis Marketing 10/18 - 10/19 1943 LV 2.2 47 47 Tie
CBS News/Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/20 1548 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
FOX News 10/17 - 10/18 1131 LV 3.0 46 43 Obama +3

Right but I don't like many of those polls so I try to ignore them. A lot of them really do have implausible takes on what the electorate will look like.

OH, WI, CO, VA, FL, IA, NH could go either way and I really wouldn't be surprised at all

MI, MN, PA, OR might not be quite as safe as the Dems would like to think

The problem with the Romney PV/Obama EC story is the Southern states have a pretty definite ceiling for Romney, and it's not that far above that McCain managed. Because black people aren't gonna vote for Romney. Most of the slack is going to have to be picked up in blue states - if we're expecting swing states to swing less - and that's more plausible (lots of well off white folks in the Northeast and on the west coast voting Republican again after Obama didn't live up to his economic/budgetary goals)...but it's not really a slam dunk.

If the national pollsters who have this pushing out to a 3+ Romney lead are on the right track, some domino is probably going to fall to let the electoral math work. If the folks having Obama up were right all along, then I will look silly (barring changes to the race requiring revisions).

Romney edged out ahead of Obama again tonight in PPP's national tracking poll 49-48. Obama's job approval rating has slipped over the past three days in PPP's national poll from 47% to 44%. In Gallup, the president's job approval has dropped (among all adults) by 7% over the past three days. He's gone from +1% to -5% in net job approval in Rasmussen over this time span. This could be noise or a weird sampling thing. And even if not it could be that the swing states are immune to this late movement.

But yeah.

Would have to be pretty fucking stupid to think this might not be so helpful for the reelection chances of Dear Leader. Or so I've been told.

How does it drop seven percent? Nothing has happened.

It was an artificial high (53%) and might be an artificial low (46%). Never forget the importance of noise in polling shifts. But with the other tracking polls it is worth watching.

pacino wrote:jerseyhoya has a website and it figured out the election:

OK. I'm officially bored. So I did a whois for teh laffs...

unskewedpolls.com -> QStarNews.com -> gop2112.com -> some dude in Massachusetts operating as Q Star Internet Solutions, a website designer who's own site design is rather lame. Of the "designed sites" listed on his site, half are dead and the rest are the lamest designs I've seen in a long time... I think I flashbacked to the 90's because I swear I could hear a modem dialing for an AOL connection.


BTW, the guy also owns the domain name obamatard.com

enjoyed his oregon pick. can't believe he has cali blue!

President suspended his campaign. Why won't Romney?!?!

The Oregon Minnesota Michigan and Pennsylvania stuff is funny.

bleh wrote:Anyone else reading about evidence of the primary being rigged for Romney and other past elections being rigged for Republicans in the voting machines? I can't pretend to know whether this is legit or not, but it just makes me angry knowing it's even possible thanks to shitty voting machines. We seriously need to stick to paper ballots.

http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/wp-co ... s_V2.0.pdf

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2012/10/27 ... or-romney/

Need MattS to weigh in on this.

I think we should have ways to audit these votes after the fact.

The trends that they are seeing (slopes for different candidates by size of precinct) are not proof of anything. However, they are indicative of further examination. Go Ron Paul.

jerseyhoya wrote:Right but I don't like many of those polls so I try to ignore them. A lot of them really do have implausible takes on what the electorate will look like.

OH, WI, CO, VA, FL, IA, NH could go either way and I really wouldn't be surprised at all

MI, MN, PA, OR might not be quite as safe as the Dems would like to think

But you reference a relatively obscure poll to make your point? Sorry, I can't really take you seriously anymore.

"Akron Beacon Journal/Ohio Newspaper Organization poll"'s Google results are mostly a bunch of hacks posting counter arguments to all the other polls on message boards.