Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby Monkeyboy » Mon Aug 08, 2011 16:42:21

dajafi wrote:An absolutely devastating takedown of Obama in the NYT today. I wish I didn't agree with it, but I do.

When Barack Obama stepped into the Oval Office, he stepped into a cycle of American history, best exemplified by F.D.R. and his distant cousin, Teddy. After a great technological revolution or a major economic transition, as when America changed from a nation of farmers to an urban industrial one, there is often a period of great concentration of wealth, and with it, a concentration of power in the wealthy. That’s what we saw in 1928, and that’s what we see today. At some point that power is exercised so injudiciously, and the lives of so many become so unbearable, that a period of reform ensues — and a charismatic reformer emerges to lead that renewal. In that sense, Teddy Roosevelt started the cycle of reform his cousin picked up 30 years later, as he began efforts to bust the trusts and regulate the railroads, exercise federal power over the banks and the nation’s food supply, and protect America’s land and wildlife, creating the modern environmental movement.

Those were the shoes — that was the historic role — that Americans elected Barack Obama to fill. The president is fond of referring to “the arc of history,” paraphrasing the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous statement that “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” But with his deep-seated aversion to conflict and his profound failure to understand bully dynamics — in which conciliation is always the wrong course of action, because bullies perceive it as weakness and just punch harder the next time — he has broken that arc and has likely bent it backward for at least a generation.


The point about technological/economic change always precipitating a concentration of wealth, and the role of centrist populism (my words, not Westin's) in pushing through reforms and re-leveling the playing field, is 100 percent dead on. I'm a little embarrassed that this hasn't previously occurred to me; that is *exactly* what happened with the Roosevelts, and FDR was successful enough in creating a new regime of regulations and domestic and international institutions that it basically held up for a half-century after he died.

The '90s and '00s saw things get badly out of whack, owing to a combination of technological advances, the end of the Cold War which had held things in check, the erosion of the New Deal regulatory apparatus and the increasing role of money in politics. Clinton either didn't see it coming or didn't realize it would present such a problem--his signing the repeal of Glass-Steagall did a tremendous amount to set up the damage of a decade later--and of course Bush was perfectly cast in the McKinley/Harding/Coolidge role of self-righteous schmuck who actively made things worse, throwing in unnecessary and calamitously expensive tax cuts and wars for good measure.

Obama seemed like our last, best chance to put everything back into balance. In this, it's hard to judge him as anything but a near-total failure.

Like most Americans, at this point, I have no idea what Barack Obama — and by extension the party he leads — believes on virtually any issue. The president tells us he prefers a “balanced” approach to deficit reduction, one that weds “revenue enhancements” (a weak way of describing popular taxes on the rich and big corporations that are evading them) with “entitlement cuts” (an equally poor choice of words that implies that people who’ve worked their whole lives are looking for handouts). But the law he just signed includes only the cuts. This pattern of presenting inconsistent positions with no apparent recognition of their incoherence is another hallmark of this president’s storytelling. He announces in a speech on energy and climate change that we need to expand offshore oil drilling and coal production — two methods of obtaining fuels that contribute to the extreme weather Americans are now seeing. He supports a health care law that will use Medicaid to insure about 15 million more Americans and then endorses a budget plan that, through cuts to state budgets, will most likely decimate Medicaid and other essential programs for children, senior citizens and people who are vulnerable by virtue of disabilities or an economy that is getting weaker by the day. He gives a major speech on immigration reform after deporting a million immigrants in two years, breaking up families at a pace George W. Bush could never rival in all his years as president.
...
[Obama] ran for president on two contradictory platforms: as a reformer who would clean up the system, and as a unity candidate who would transcend the lines of red and blue. He has pursued the one with which he is most comfortable given the constraints of his character, consistently choosing the message of bipartisanship over the message of confrontation.

But the arc of history does not bend toward justice through capitulation cast as compromise. It does not bend when 400 people control more of the wealth than 150 million of their fellow Americans. It does not bend when the average middle-class family has seen its income stagnate over the last 30 years while the richest 1 percent has seen its income rise astronomically. It does not bend when we cut the fixed incomes of our parents and grandparents so hedge fund managers can keep their 15 percent tax rates. It does not bend when only one side in negotiations between workers and their bosses is allowed representation. And it does not bend when, as political scientists have shown, it is not public opinion but the opinions of the wealthy that predict the votes of the Senate. The arc of history can bend only so far before it breaks.



I think he saw himself as more of a Lincoln, trying to bring together the two parts of a divided country, when he really needed to be more of an FDR.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby pacino » Mon Aug 08, 2011 16:55:14

the poorest school districts in the state get the biggest cuts per student, by far

somehow, wealthy districts received the smallest cuts.

the march towards destroying the education system so they can privatize it continues.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Aug 08, 2011 17:03:11

The Westen article was one of the finest I've ever read.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Aug 08, 2011 17:07:25

pacino wrote:the poorest school districts in the state get the biggest cuts per student, by far

somehow, wealthy districts received the smallest cuts.

the march towards destroying the education system so they can privatize it continues.

That article is so poorly written/explained it's hard to tell if there's anything there worth getting worked up about or not

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby pacino » Mon Aug 08, 2011 17:10:57

there was a table previously showing every school district in the county and their total and per student cuts, and all of the poorest districts were on the bottom and the richest were cut the least. it was really amazing..i'll see if i can find it.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby Monkeyboy » Mon Aug 08, 2011 17:18:00

Class warfare... and it's spreading.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Aug 08, 2011 17:25:58

pacino wrote:there was a table previously showing every school district in the county and their total and per student cuts, and all of the poorest districts were on the bottom and the richest were cut the least. it was really amazing..i'll see if i can find it.

Because the poorest get the most and the richest got the least to start with presumably? I mean there's got to be a better article out there that looks at how the cuts were made.

If someone is giving me $1000 a year and giving you $100 a year, and they decide to start giving each person 10% less, my drop is 10x yours, but I'm still getting 10x as much as you are.

Not saying making cuts like that necessarily make the most sense, if that's what did happen.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby 21McBride » Mon Aug 08, 2011 17:29:59

All told, the poorest 150 school districts, or 30 percent of the state's total, lost $537.5 million in five key program lines. That works out to $581 per student, the AP's analysis found. The wealthiest 150 school districts, as measured by the number of children who qualify for subsidized school lunches, lost $123 million, or $214 per student.

Of the remaining money in the programs, almost $3 per student went to the 150 poorest districts for every $1 per student that went to the 150 wealthiest.

It's been several decades since state aid for public schools was cut as significantly as it was for the 2011-12 school year.

The reductions in state aid tended to be one piece of a difficult funding puzzle for school districts this year. Administrators and board members also found themselves wrestling with rising health care, utility and pension costs or stagnant tax collections stemming from dropping home sales and values.

Poorer school districts typically draw a higher proportion of their budgets from state aid, based on formulas designed to help provide an equal education to all students and help close the funding gap between what wealthier districts and poorer districts can collect from local taxes.

The cuts largely were levied based on the same formula.


slightly better article
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby dajafi » Mon Aug 08, 2011 18:04:04

I wrote this (the letter he's responding to, that is)

As for next year, I hope Sullivan's right and I'm wrong, but I'm doubting it.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby phdave » Mon Aug 08, 2011 18:58:52

dajafi wrote:I wrote this (the letter he's responding to, that is)

As for next year, I hope Sullivan's right and I'm wrong, but I'm doubting it.


Secondly, if you want to change that hideous dynamic, rooted in the 1960s culture war, you don't repeat it. You defeat it by consistent, relentless reason. Obama will be a transformative president only if he pulls this off, because he will have transformed our political culture for the better. As for his re-election campaign, just watch. The man has a long record of George HW Bush competence and quiet governance, but unlike GHWB, he can also unleash rhetoric that obliterates his opponents. Imagine a debate between him and Perry. Christianist swagger vs Christian calm. This is not weakness. It is a deeper form of strength.


Whoa! This reminds me of the fairy tale crap people would write about how great Bush was and how he was changing the world by being steadfast in his convictions despite all evidence to the contrary. Sullivan was one of those people early on I think. He eventually changed his tune if I remember correctly. But to state that you defeat the culture war through "consistent, relentless reason"? Oh yeah? Haha. Since when? That's insane.

EDIT: Yes, here is Sullivan writing about how he was duped by Bush: "once 9/11 happened, my support intensified as I hoped for the best. Bush's early speeches were magnificent. The Afghanistan invasion was defter than I expected. I got lulled. I wanted him to succeed—too much, in retrospect." Jeez. I haven't been reading him much these days but he seems to be making the same mistake with Obama.

The Westen piece reminded me of the Harper's article back early on in Obama's term (like 3 months in) called Barak Hoover Obama. I thought it was an over the top title at the time but after reading it, I learned a lot more about Hoover and saw the connection the author was making by the time I finished it. I hoped it was just a pessimistic outlook but it seems like it was dead-on.

The final paragraph is a good contrast to the Sullivan quote:

Obama should not deceive himself into thinking that such interest-group politics can be banished any more than can the cycles of Wall Street. It is not too late for him to change direction and seize the radical moment at hand. But for the moment, just like another very good man, Barack Obama is moving prudently, carefully, reasonably toward disaster.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby drsmooth » Mon Aug 08, 2011 21:18:37

phdave wrote:The Westen piece reminded me of the Harper's article back early on in Obama's term (like 3 months in) called Barak Hoover Obama. I thought it was an over the top title at the time but after reading it, I learned a lot more about Hoover and saw the connection the author was making by the time I finished it. I hoped it was just a pessimistic outlook but it seems like it was dead-on.


Baker's piece strikes me as kind of peevish, phd

He wants Barry to go all radical and dismiss his incrementalist tendencies, while praising FDR as a 'pragmatic' dealmaker, improviser, and outright liar. All of those are incrementalist tactics. And he ignores inconvenient realities of FDR's reign, most prominently that, while he retained power, his record of radical systemic change is less - well, radical - than Baker suggests.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby drsmooth » Mon Aug 08, 2011 21:54:47

On a lighter note, the House ends use of pages; neither with a bang nor a whimper.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby dajafi » Mon Aug 08, 2011 23:01:45

That Baker piece, written more than two years ago now, looks pretty damn prescient.

I agree with the doc that the FDR counter-example is at least a bit problematic. But the Hoover comp strikes me as almost chilling: brilliant guy whose grasp of the challenges facing the country is probably stronger than anyone else's, but not quite strong enough.

Baker's a pretty good novelist, too: his book "Paradise Alley" is outstanding, and his baseball novel "Sometimes You See It Coming," is decent.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby drsmooth » Tue Aug 09, 2011 01:00:49

dajafi wrote:That Baker piece, written more than two years ago now, looks pretty damn prescient.

I agree with the doc that the FDR counter-example is at least a bit problematic. But the Hoover comp strikes me as almost chilling: brilliant guy whose grasp of the challenges facing the country is probably stronger than anyone else's, but not quite strong enough.

Baker's a pretty good novelist, too: his book "Paradise Alley" is outstanding, and his baseball novel "Sometimes You See It Coming," is decent.


seeing is important; seeing a way to thread the policy needle,among polarized and entrenched interests, is also. A friend of mine suggested his best move would be to "get out of washington"; that is, get people behind him, & stop worrying about lily-livered congresspeople. I don't know.
Last edited by drsmooth on Tue Aug 09, 2011 08:11:38, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Aug 09, 2011 01:51:24

The Most Powerful Man on Earth? - As time goes by, that Obama adviser's line of "leading from behind" pops up more and more in my mind when reading critiques of Obama's presidency

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Aug 09, 2011 01:55:18

GOP might lose the state senate in Wisconsin tomorrow. Would be very worth it, but still depressing.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby drsmooth » Tue Aug 09, 2011 08:29:06

jerseyhoya wrote:The Most Powerful Man on Earth? - As time goes by, that Obama adviser's line of "leading from behind" pops up more and more in my mind when reading critiques of Obama's presidency


once we get over this spate of forelock-tugging and hand-wringing - it'll take, oh, around 15 months - the 1st black man is gonna open up a can of medieval whupass like your pasty mcconnells, your swarthy boehners, your complacent blankfeins have never been in front of. They'll remark that "bleeding from behind" DOES sound an awful lot the same.

so keep up the badmouthing, honkies
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby Wizlah » Tue Aug 09, 2011 09:24:59

drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:The Most Powerful Man on Earth? - As time goes by, that Obama adviser's line of "leading from behind" pops up more and more in my mind when reading critiques of Obama's presidency


once we get over this spate of forelock-tugging and hand-wringing - it'll take, oh, around 15 months - the 1st black man is gonna open up a can of medieval whupass like your pasty mcconnells, your swarthy boehners, your complacent blankfeins have never been in front of. They'll remark that "bleeding from behind" DOES sound an awful lot the same.

so keep up the badmouthing, honkies


That'll be the obama as jackie robinson theory, so.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby thephan » Tue Aug 09, 2011 09:45:15

Item 1 - Next senate and congress cycles should be clean slate. If they are in, they should be purged. Only caveat is that if the allowable deviation is if the replacement candidates are nuts then there a stay is permitted (if the constituients get to live in their offices so that they do what we want, not what they are told).

Item 2 - Make people understand that although we do not like the idea of a system that has more then two parties, we already have a multi-party system.

Item 3 - Quash the insanity cycle be delivering an unbiased, 3rd grade level explanation as to how we got here and where we need to go. Purge all the party squabble out of it and deliver a healthy does of reality. Start with the idea that if you cannot pay your bills, you both spend less and get another job. That means that there needs to be some Regan era type tax increases and people who creatively exercise loophole find those avenues closed so that they pay their fair share. I don't want to pay more taxes, but I don't want to live in the second world either.

Item 4 - See the class war for what it is and understand that it is less racial divide and more economic divide. Certainly race is part of the economic difference as racism has placed non-white into a socioeconomic strata, but out of the North-East/Mid-Atlantic, there are plenty of poor, under educated, angry Caucasians. As the divide expands, vaporizing the middle class, the tinder for an outright, unstoppable class war is set. The former middle class will ignore the born in racism of the lowest status white citizens and join a multicultural uprising. The divide is just so polarizing that it will drive revolution. There is plenty written about this, and I can only summarize that it is inevitable. What form is the only question. The Arab Spring certain offers models.
yawn

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Aug 09, 2011 10:49:51

Love points 3 & 4, phan.
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