Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:35:07

JUburton wrote:Good job report today... +117k jobs, unemployment down a tenth to 9.1%

As Ezra Klein said today better than expected != good. The unemployment rate went down because of people dropping out of the labor force as much as jobs being added.

Also re: people dropping out of the labor force I read this morning if the labor force was as large still as it was in January 2009, unemployment would be 11.7%. We're at a three decade low of adult labor force participation.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby Wizlah » Fri Aug 05, 2011 10:36:39

jerseyhoya wrote:
JUburton wrote:Good job report today... +117k jobs, unemployment down a tenth to 9.1%

As Ezra Klein said today better than expected != good. The unemployment rate went down because of people dropping out of the labor force as much as jobs being added.

Also re: people dropping out of the labor force I read this morning if the labor force was as large still as it was in January 2009, unemployment would be 11.7%. We're at a three decade low of adult labor force participation.


take it to teh economics thread, pal.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 11:50:02

jerseyhoya wrote:What do you mean by can't?


Obviously the nomination will be a problem for him, but I suppose the common wisdom is if he gets it he stands a very good chance of beating Obama.

For whatever reason, I just don't buy it. Something about him, can't put my finger on it. Perhaps it is the total lack of personal charisma. As a dyed-in-the-wool Democrat, all I can tell you is that I welcome a Romney nomination.

If you want harder stuff, I would say (1) Romney won't inspire the Republican base, thus hurting turnout in swing states, and (2) if people think Obama is too distant from the average Joe, they oughta getta load of Romney. The Kerry comparisons are spot-on.

I would make a bet right now that Mitt Romney will never be President.

Christie, on the other hand...
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby dajafi » Fri Aug 05, 2011 12:04:56

Romney's argument is that he knows how to fix the economy, which Obama doesn't. In that he's a rich (uber-)white guy, he can superficially make that sell.

His problem will come into focus when somebody--maybe Obama, but I'm guessing someone else--points out that he made his money by leading an organization, Bain Consulting, that transformed middle- and working-class jobs into added wealth for the super-rich. To put it mildly, this is not a strong blueprint for restoring prosperity.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby Grotewold » Fri Aug 05, 2011 12:14:27

The economy is obviously big, but when was the last time the cooler (or, at least, less squirrely) candidate lost?

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby azrider » Fri Aug 05, 2011 12:21:04

mozartpc27 wrote:I am still of the opinion that Romney can't win. Christie running as the top of the ticket could definitely win, however.


i totally agree. i think romney will win the nomination almost literally by default and pick kyl as his running mate. (my prediction) if neither perry or christie enters.

however, he won't really have the support of either the tea party (romney care) or the religious right and atheists (magic underwear). these people would sooner not vote and let obama win then vote for romney. having half of your base not showing up for an election is not a good thing.

christie/rubio would probably be the best ticket.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby dajafi » Fri Aug 05, 2011 12:37:05

Grotewold wrote:The economy is obviously big, but when was the last time the cooler (or, at least, less squirrely) candidate lost?


Probably 1968, though the gap between Humphrey and Nixon on that point was pretty small.

These also aren't fixed measures. Nixon got cooler between '68 and '72 (then became really, really uncool), Carter much less cool between '76 and '80.

Romney's problem picking a guy like Rubio as his running mate is that you don't want #2 to come off much better than #1. (This was another problem Humphrey had, though it was far down the list: mostly it was that the serious liberals who'd supported RFK and Gene McCarthy had convinced themselves he was the devil. So instead they sat at home and let the real devil win.)

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby drsmooth » Fri Aug 05, 2011 12:41:27

How would Romney or Christie get the nom if they don't/can't say right out loud to those well right of them "don't worry, I've enlisted (Rubio, Kyl, Palin, whomever is more loon-friendly) as my veep?"
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby dajafi » Fri Aug 05, 2011 12:42:43

As for Christie, what I think he knows even if he can't articulate it is that anyone who runs for President now has whatever makes them appealing or unique bled out of them by the process itself. There's something about how we've set this up that renders any candidate basically unlikeable by the time they get to the end--probably because if you are too "out there," the party establishment (either one) will squash you flat.

Sometimes this is good: it probably stopped Howard Dean in 2004, and (please god) it will stop Batsh1t Bachmann this year. But sometimes what you get is a John McCain in 2008 who's almost as much a prisoner of the process as he was of North Vietnam, which is near-tragic both on a systemic and personal level. I just finished that old Michael Lewis book, "Losers," about the '96 campaign, and the way he writes about McCain (who was Dole's top surrogate) in there made me sad that we never saw that guy, who actually started to disappear late in the 2000 campaign, three years ago.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby traderdave » Fri Aug 05, 2011 13:36:25

jerseyhoya wrote:The complete lack of filter/willingness to call people stupid/crazy is fantastic.


I actually agree with that and it is very refreshing SOME OF THE TIME. His willingness, however, does not suddenly make him the solution to all our ills. FWIW, the people at Westboro Baptist Church also lack a filter; it certainly does not make THEM special. As a matter of fact, it makes them vile.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby CalvinBall » Sat Aug 06, 2011 09:10:27

We gonna downgrade.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby Wizlah » Sat Aug 06, 2011 19:04:23

The reasoning behind the credit downgrade does underline one thing about this whole fucking mess. In the 3 years since lehmann brothers, and in particular since the initial coordinated rush to stabilise the situation worldwide, there has been little to none by way of actual political leadership on the problems that the credit crunch exposed. outside of proposing a lot of stress tests and underwriting the banks, the very least to be done and at best a short term measure, there has been no sincere protracted political effort anywhere to address the problem of a massive unsustainable debt which is sitting on the collective ledger of the western economies. The reaction virtually everywhere has been the same in the west, despite occasional murmerings to the contrary by the IMF - drop your interest rates, drastically cut the spending, increase the oul money supply if necessary and somehow the markets will start investing again.

It's a situation screaming for someone to stand up and bang heads, or inspire everyone else to follow in their wake, surely the very definition of a political solution. And yet, nothing. Everyone looking to their own electoral bases (e.g merkel) or fighting their own poxy little wars (e.g. republicans and democrats) and using the wider economic malaise as backdrop to blame the other fuckers. This has never been a time for poxy incrementalism, and we were lucky if we got even that.

Fucking pathetic. We get the economic crises we deserve.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby dajafi » Sun Aug 07, 2011 13:25:53

An absolutely devastating takedown of Obama in the NYT today. I wish I didn't agree with it, but I do.

When Barack Obama stepped into the Oval Office, he stepped into a cycle of American history, best exemplified by F.D.R. and his distant cousin, Teddy. After a great technological revolution or a major economic transition, as when America changed from a nation of farmers to an urban industrial one, there is often a period of great concentration of wealth, and with it, a concentration of power in the wealthy. That’s what we saw in 1928, and that’s what we see today. At some point that power is exercised so injudiciously, and the lives of so many become so unbearable, that a period of reform ensues — and a charismatic reformer emerges to lead that renewal. In that sense, Teddy Roosevelt started the cycle of reform his cousin picked up 30 years later, as he began efforts to bust the trusts and regulate the railroads, exercise federal power over the banks and the nation’s food supply, and protect America’s land and wildlife, creating the modern environmental movement.

Those were the shoes — that was the historic role — that Americans elected Barack Obama to fill. The president is fond of referring to “the arc of history,” paraphrasing the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous statement that “the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” But with his deep-seated aversion to conflict and his profound failure to understand bully dynamics — in which conciliation is always the wrong course of action, because bullies perceive it as weakness and just punch harder the next time — he has broken that arc and has likely bent it backward for at least a generation.


The point about technological/economic change always precipitating a concentration of wealth, and the role of centrist populism (my words, not Westin's) in pushing through reforms and re-leveling the playing field, is 100 percent dead on. I'm a little embarrassed that this hasn't previously occurred to me; that is *exactly* what happened with the Roosevelts, and FDR was successful enough in creating a new regime of regulations and domestic and international institutions that it basically held up for a half-century after he died.

The '90s and '00s saw things get badly out of whack, owing to a combination of technological advances, the end of the Cold War which had held things in check, the erosion of the New Deal regulatory apparatus and the increasing role of money in politics. Clinton either didn't see it coming or didn't realize it would present such a problem--his signing the repeal of Glass-Steagall did a tremendous amount to set up the damage of a decade later--and of course Bush was perfectly cast in the McKinley/Harding/Coolidge role of self-righteous schmuck who actively made things worse, throwing in unnecessary and calamitously expensive tax cuts and wars for good measure.

Obama seemed like our last, best chance to put everything back into balance. In this, it's hard to judge him as anything but a near-total failure.

Like most Americans, at this point, I have no idea what Barack Obama — and by extension the party he leads — believes on virtually any issue. The president tells us he prefers a “balanced” approach to deficit reduction, one that weds “revenue enhancements” (a weak way of describing popular taxes on the rich and big corporations that are evading them) with “entitlement cuts” (an equally poor choice of words that implies that people who’ve worked their whole lives are looking for handouts). But the law he just signed includes only the cuts. This pattern of presenting inconsistent positions with no apparent recognition of their incoherence is another hallmark of this president’s storytelling. He announces in a speech on energy and climate change that we need to expand offshore oil drilling and coal production — two methods of obtaining fuels that contribute to the extreme weather Americans are now seeing. He supports a health care law that will use Medicaid to insure about 15 million more Americans and then endorses a budget plan that, through cuts to state budgets, will most likely decimate Medicaid and other essential programs for children, senior citizens and people who are vulnerable by virtue of disabilities or an economy that is getting weaker by the day. He gives a major speech on immigration reform after deporting a million immigrants in two years, breaking up families at a pace George W. Bush could never rival in all his years as president.
...
[Obama] ran for president on two contradictory platforms: as a reformer who would clean up the system, and as a unity candidate who would transcend the lines of red and blue. He has pursued the one with which he is most comfortable given the constraints of his character, consistently choosing the message of bipartisanship over the message of confrontation.

But the arc of history does not bend toward justice through capitulation cast as compromise. It does not bend when 400 people control more of the wealth than 150 million of their fellow Americans. It does not bend when the average middle-class family has seen its income stagnate over the last 30 years while the richest 1 percent has seen its income rise astronomically. It does not bend when we cut the fixed incomes of our parents and grandparents so hedge fund managers can keep their 15 percent tax rates. It does not bend when only one side in negotiations between workers and their bosses is allowed representation. And it does not bend when, as political scientists have shown, it is not public opinion but the opinions of the wealthy that predict the votes of the Senate. The arc of history can bend only so far before it breaks.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Aug 08, 2011 02:15:02

Waiting for a Landslide - Thought this was pretty good from Douthat today on the fickle nature of the electorate and trouble of central political actors thinking decisive, sustainable electoral victory is a likely outcome.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Aug 08, 2011 08:52:18

Key's theory makes almost no sense when an ever growing percentage of voters are unaligned. And it certainly doesn't work with ideologically pure parties.
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby drsmooth » Mon Aug 08, 2011 09:14:32

Lindsey graham summons all his rhetorical skills and likens Barry's situation to a mediocre coach (football, presumably) in the southeast conference

jesus what a tepid spitslick - he sounds more & more like Strother Martin in Cool Hand Luke with every passing day
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby drsmooth » Mon Aug 08, 2011 09:18:28

jerseyhoya wrote:Waiting for a Landslide - Thought this was pretty good from Douthat today on the fickle nature of the electorate and trouble of central political actors thinking decisive, sustainable electoral victory is a likely outcome.


pretty good, yes, much better than many of his recent submissions. But this?

Many conservatives are eager to see their party’s leading champion of entitlement reform enter the race, the better to make 2012 feel like a true hinge-of-history moment


He's talking about Paul Ryan here. Paul Ryan, ffs
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Aug 08, 2011 12:47:18

Leap of Faith - long backgrounder on Bachmann from the New Yorker. Nice reporting.

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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby drsmooth » Mon Aug 08, 2011 14:55:27

Nate Silver, doing the kind of analysis he does best, spreads S&P's gaping arse even wider
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Re: Politics: The Arse of the Unpossible

Postby Monkeyboy » Mon Aug 08, 2011 16:26:08

traderdave wrote:
phdave wrote:
CFP wrote:I did not know that. Holy #$&! Is that true?


I thought that story was better known.

Here is a Washington Post story from 2005 that describes the whole thing (in a story about how he prioritizes being a father over being a Senator).

In his Senate office, on a shelf next to an autographed baseball, Sen. Rick Santorum keeps a framed photo of his son Gabriel Michael, the fourth of his seven children. Named for two archangels, Gabriel Michael was born prematurely, at 20 weeks, on Oct. 11, 1996, and lived two hours outside the womb.

Upon their son's death, Rick and Karen Santorum opted not to bring his body to a funeral home. Instead, they bundled him in a blanket and drove him to Karen's parents' home in Pittsburgh. There, they spent several hours kissing and cuddling Gabriel with his three siblings, ages 6, 4 and 1 1/2. They took photos, sang lullabies in his ear and held a private Mass.

"When you stick your head out of the foxhole, people shoot at you. I've stuck my head out of a foxhole," says Sen. Rick Santorum. (Robert A. Reeder -- The Washington Post)

"That's my little guy," Santorum says, pointing to the photo of Gabriel, in which his tiny physique is framed by his father's hand. The senator often speaks of his late son in the present tense. It is a rare instance in which he talks softly.

He and Karen brought Gabriel's body home so their children could "absorb and understand that they had a brother," Santorum says. "We wanted them to see that he was real," not an abstraction, he says. Not a "fetus," either, as Rick and Karen were appalled to see him described -- "a 20-week-old fetus" -- on a hospital form. They changed the form to read "20-week-old baby."

Karen Santorum, a former nurse, wrote letters to her son during and after her pregnancy. She compiled them into a book, "Letters to Gabriel," a collection of prayers, Bible passages and a chronicle of the prenatal complications that led to Gabriel's premature delivery. At one point, her doctor raised the prospect of an abortion, an "option" Karen ridicules. "Letters to Gabriel" also derides "pro-abortion activists" and decries the "infanticide" of "partial-birth abortion," the legality of which Rick Santorum was then debating in the Senate. The book reads, in places, like a call to action.

"When the partial-birth abortion vote comes to the floor of the U.S. Senate for the third time," Karen writes to Gabriel, "your daddy needs to proclaim God's message for life with even more strength and devotion to the cause."


I might be in the minority but I find this story to be far more heartbreaking than "weird".



That's because they left out the part where he tried to enroll the baby in an online preschool charter school at taxpayer expense.
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