Ocean+Monmouth is going to deliver about a 130,000 plurality for Christie.

Christie won Gloucester by 3.4%.

Feeling a bit optimistic.

I'd feel a lot better if Atlantic was closer than 20%. I would also like some numbers from Burlington to show up soon.

Wow. Corzine destroyed Christie in Sussex (63.9% to 25.7%). Didn't see that coming.

gpicaro wrote:Wow. Corzine destroyed Christie in Sussex (63.9% to 25.7%). Didn't see that coming.

Definitely a misprint. Almost certainly backwards.

i won the election for constable in my precinct with 6 write in votes. i have no idea what that means now.

cshort wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

cshort wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:If I'm a Republican, and I care about the long term health of the party, that 18-30 year old number scares the $#@! out of me. Considering new voters are considered most persuadable, the fact that even in given Corzine's incredibly low approval rating you can capture more than 30% of those voters is a bad sign. A very bad sign.

If those kind of numbers persist, you might see a last Republican hurrah in 2010, but that will be it.

I don't think it's as bad as you think. Once they start making money, the young become more conservative. Happened to a friend of mine that was a born and bred Boston liberal. Once he started making six figures he realized he wanted to actually hang on to some of his money, and he started moving much closer to the center, and on fiscal issues, to the right of center.

OK, your n size of one doesn't prove anything. And second, most people don't make 6 figure salaries. So, if Republicans are counting on people making 6 figures and old southerners, they aren't gonna win many elections.

Give me a break, that was just a personal example - Boston libs are usually pretty set in their ways. I think if you look at trends, people tend to get more conservative as they age. According to Slate, in 2006, almost 25% of the electorate made >$100,000, and their shift to the left helped the Democrats take control. Not a majority, but certainly impactful.

Many people vote with their pocketbook, they see how things will impact their children and their retirement. Most 18-30 year-olds don't concern themselves with those issues. When they're in their 30's and 40's, attitudes change. Not saying everyone does, but I'll bet there's still a sizable shift to the right once they hit that age bracket.

In fact, people don't vote their personal pocket books--they do vote based on their perception of overall economic performance. Lots of low income people in conservative parts of the country are opposed to an inheritance tax, a tax they will never, ever pay. There might be a shift to the right among some young voters--but I think it's unlikely it will be in large numbers, as long as Republicans emphasize abortion and gay marriage as key issues. Second, since they are seemingly dedicated to demonizing Latinos, they're doing a great job of alienating another growing voting block. I really think the future of American political alignment can be seen in California.

Also, on partisan and issue stability, see this.

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2781642

There's a ton of literature on public opinion and voting behavior going back 50 years that supports this.

jerseyhoya wrote:

gpicaro wrote:Wow. Corzine destroyed Christie in Sussex (63.9% to 25.7%). Didn't see that coming.

Definitely a misprint. Almost certainly backwards.

I certainly hope so, but it hasn't changed yet so I'm a little concerned.

CalvinBall wrote:i won the election for constable in my precinct with 6 write in votes. i have no idea what that means now.

Congratulations Constable Calvin!

I don't know about Pennsylvania, but in Arkansas, constables are kind of like elected vigilantes. You're now supposed to get a police scanner, and interfere with the real police when they try to arrest people and stop crimes.

I think it also means you can go to fires and stuff.

Bergen neck and neck now. Christie with a .5% lead (just under 80% in).

gpicaro wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

gpicaro wrote:Wow. Corzine destroyed Christie in Sussex (63.9% to 25.7%). Didn't see that coming.

Definitely a misprint. Almost certainly backwards.

I certainly hope so, but it hasn't changed yet so I'm a little concerned.

I will never post here again if Christie lost Sussex

TenuredVulture wrote:

cshort wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

cshort wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:If I'm a Republican, and I care about the long term health of the party, that 18-30 year old number scares the $#@! out of me. Considering new voters are considered most persuadable, the fact that even in given Corzine's incredibly low approval rating you can capture more than 30% of those voters is a bad sign. A very bad sign.

If those kind of numbers persist, you might see a last Republican hurrah in 2010, but that will be it.

I don't think it's as bad as you think. Once they start making money, the young become more conservative. Happened to a friend of mine that was a born and bred Boston liberal. Once he started making six figures he realized he wanted to actually hang on to some of his money, and he started moving much closer to the center, and on fiscal issues, to the right of center.

OK, your n size of one doesn't prove anything. And second, most people don't make 6 figure salaries. So, if Republicans are counting on people making 6 figures and old southerners, they aren't gonna win many elections.

Give me a break, that was just a personal example - Boston libs are usually pretty set in their ways. I think if you look at trends, people tend to get more conservative as they age. According to Slate, in 2006, almost 25% of the electorate made >$100,000, and their shift to the left helped the Democrats take control. Not a majority, but certainly impactful.

Many people vote with their pocketbook, they see how things will impact their children and their retirement. Most 18-30 year-olds don't concern themselves with those issues. When they're in their 30's and 40's, attitudes change. Not saying everyone does, but I'll bet there's still a sizable shift to the right once they hit that age bracket.

In fact, people don't vote their personal pocket books--they do vote based on their perception of overall economic performance. Lots of low income people in conservative parts of the country are opposed to an inheritance tax, a tax they will never, ever pay. There might be a shift to the right among some young voters--but I think it's unlikely it will be in large numbers, as long as Republicans emphasize abortion and gay marriage as key issues. Second, since they are seemingly dedicated to demonizing Latinos, they're doing a great job of alienating another growing voting block. I really think the future of American political alignment can be seen in California.

Also, on partisan and issue stability, see this.

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2781642

There's a ton of literature on public opinion and voting behavior going back 50 years that supports this.

Totally agree on the social stuff. The Republicans are crazy to marginalize people because of abortion and gay rights. That ship has sailed, especially with the young. and they'd better realize it.

Christie takes the lead in Atlantic by 3% with 58% in!

jerseyhoya wrote:

gpicaro wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

gpicaro wrote:Wow. Corzine destroyed Christie in Sussex (63.9% to 25.7%). Didn't see that coming.

Definitely a misprint. Almost certainly backwards.

I certainly hope so, but it hasn't changed yet so I'm a little concerned.

I will never post here again if Christie lost Sussex

Maybe they let the cows vote.

jerseyhoya wrote:

gpicaro wrote:Wow. Corzine destroyed Christie in Sussex (63.9% to 25.7%). Didn't see that coming.

Definitely a misprint. Almost certainly backwards.

You are 100% correct. It was backwards and they fixed it. I feel better now.

I'll call it for Christie now

gpicaro wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:i won the election for constable in my precinct with 6 write in votes. i have no idea what that means now.

Congratulations Constable Calvin!

This is a four year thing. What if I want to move? What if I don't want to do it and just told a few people to write me in because I thought it would be funny? Oh noes.

CalvinBall wrote:

gpicaro wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:i won the election for constable in my precinct with 6 write in votes. i have no idea what that means now.

Congratulations Constable Calvin!

This is a four year thing. What if I want to move? What if I don't want to do it and just told a few people to write me in because I thought it would be funny? Oh noes.

If you move, you'll have to resign. If you don't want to do it anymore, you resign also.

Ok phew. Well I don't have a job so I will do it. I can serve people subpoenas and whatever else I have to do. I hope I actually can make money from it.