wait elliot spitzer?

Yes

McDonnell is up 2-1 early, but a lot of what's coming in is western VA. Still this thing doesn't look like it's going to be close.

msnbc says mcdonnell

McDonnell up early in VA-11. I'd really like if McDonnell could win VA-11.

I think he's going to win this thing by 15%.

In New Jersey, CNN's exit poll says Christie won independents 58-33 over Corzine, with indies making up 27 percent of the electorate.

Looks like Daggett's numbers fell off a cliff. Too bad there are so many more Democrats. I think this is going to be really close.

how can two governor races 8 months after inauguration possibly be a referendum on obama?

Close, really really close

If I'm a Republican, and I care about the long term health of the party, that 18-30 year old number scares the shit out of me. Considering new voters are considered most persuadable, the fact that even in given Corzine's incredibly low approval rating you can capture more than 30% of those voters is a bad sign. A very bad sign.

If those kind of numbers persist, you might see a last Republican hurrah in 2010, but that will be it.

With less than half a percent in, given your early list of counties, the Gloucester Co. numbers have to be discouraging for Christie However, with .9 percent in Monmouth county, that looks a little better. Unless it's something like Colts Neck reporting.

Wow, Monmouth looks great

If I'm not mistaking, that is how it has long been. Young people rarely vote Republican.

I was very nervous for a minute because Corzine had a huge percentage in Gloucester. I then realized only 1% or so had reported.

Christie now leading in Gloucester (19.4% in).

gpicaro wrote:If I'm not mistaking, that is how it has long been. Young people rarely vote Republican.

I was very nervous for a minute because Corzine had a huge percentage in Gloucester. I then realized only 1% or so had reported.

Christie now has a slim lead in Gloucester.

And losing the youth vote by huge margins is a huge problem for the Republicans. Party ID tends to be stable by the time a voter is 25 or so--Republicans do well over the last 20 years because of large numbers of "Reagan Youth" who started voting Republican in the 80s.

http://www.co.monmouth.nj.us/ElectionResults/Election%20Result.htm

Christie up 62-30% in Monmouth with 50% in

That's a great number. Could balance out something elsewhere.

Big chunk of ocean county in on the politico sight really shifted things in Christie's favor.

JH, in Monmouth and Ocean, the only Democratic areas are Asbury and Lakewood right? Long Branch has gone more or less Republican, thanks to eminent domain.

Up 2% in Bergen with 20% in

More numbers in (about 12% total). Christie with a 51-42 lead, but many Democratic counties still out there. The only really worrisome area at the moment seems to be Atlantic County (only 1.8% in though) where Corzine has a 84-13 lead.

TenuredVulture wrote:If I'm a Republican, and I care about the long term health of the party, that 18-30 year old number scares the $#@! out of me. Considering new voters are considered most persuadable, the fact that even in given Corzine's incredibly low approval rating you can capture more than 30% of those voters is a bad sign. A very bad sign.

If those kind of numbers persist, you might see a last Republican hurrah in 2010, but that will be it.

I don't think it's as bad as you think. Once they start making money, the young become more conservative. Happened to a friend of mine that was a born and bred Boston liberal. Once he started making six figures he realized he wanted to actually hang on to some of his money, and he started moving much closer to the center, and on fiscal issues, to the right of center.

cshort wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:If I'm a Republican, and I care about the long term health of the party, that 18-30 year old number scares the $#@! out of me. Considering new voters are considered most persuadable, the fact that even in given Corzine's incredibly low approval rating you can capture more than 30% of those voters is a bad sign. A very bad sign.

If those kind of numbers persist, you might see a last Republican hurrah in 2010, but that will be it.

I don't think it's as bad as you think. Once they start making money, the young become more conservative. Happened to a friend of mine that was a born and bred Boston liberal. Once he started making six figures he realized he wanted to actually hang on to some of his money, and he started moving much closer to the center, and on fiscal issues, to the right of center.

OK, your n size of one doesn't prove anything. And second, most people don't make 6 figure salaries. So, if Republicans are counting on people making 6 figures and old southerners, they aren't gonna win many elections.