Left Wing Echo Chamber POLITICS THREAD ftw!

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 10:14:49

TenuredVulture wrote:Here's an odd thing--I heard from what I presumed to be a fairly reliable insider type person that Louisiana Senate was tightening up, and yet I've found nothing to corroborate that--not even on Redstate, and certainly no public polls.

They released an internal poll last week that showed him down only one.

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/10/kennedy_insists_hes_on_pace_to.html

by **TenuredVulture** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 11:18:08

jerseyhoya wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:Here's an odd thing--I heard from what I presumed to be a fairly reliable insider type person that Louisiana Senate was tightening up, and yet I've found nothing to corroborate that--not even on Redstate, and certainly no public polls.

They released an internal poll last week that showed him down only one.

http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/10/kennedy_insists_hes_on_pace_to.html

I have no problem believing he's closed the gap, I just wondered why it hadn't received more attention.

by **dajafi** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 13:14:24

Voted yesterday. Buncha Republicans, including for the House seat, not that it matters.

Sometimes I think it would be nice to have competitive, or even interesting, elections for local or statewide office. Maybe next year with the NYC mayoral, for which I'm actually undecided right now...

by **TenuredVulture** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 13:31:18

In the closing days, Obama has clearly begun to lay the groundwork of his Presidency--these ad buys in Arizona and Georgia aren't so much about winning those states, they're directed at the popular vote. In 2004, Bush got just under 51% of the popular vote. Obama wants to beat that. Showing strength in places like Georgia and Arizona will also allow him to put pressure on conservative Dems from the South and West.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 13:33:52

Plus he wants to make sure Dems pick up AZ-01, maybe pick off AZ-03, hold AZ-05 and AZ-08. Same in Georgia, where Jim Marshall is probably one of the six most endangered Dem incumbents in the country, and Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin are in one of the three most important Senate races in the country regarding the Dems chances at 60.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 14:38:52

My sister joined a facebook group for John Adler today. Vomit worthy.

At least she isn't old enough to vote.

by **dajafi** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 15:37:27

The endorsement you probably don't want:

With President Bush "intentionally lying low this week," according to the New York Times, the Obama campaign wasted no time sending out a video of Vice President Dick Cheney's endorsement of Sen. John McCain for president.

DICK CHENEY: And in three days we'll choose a new steward for the presidency and begin a new chapter in our history. It's the biggest decision that we make together as Americans. A lot turns on the outcome. I believe the right leader for this moment in history is Senator John McCain. John is a man who understands the danger facing America. He's a man who has looked into the face of evil and not flinched. He's a man who's comfortable with responsibility and has been since he joined the armed forces at the age of 17. He's earned our support and confidence, and the time is now to make him commander-in-chief. I'm delighted to support John McCain and I'm pleased that he's chosen a running mate with executive talent, toughness and common sense, our next vice president in Sarah Palin."

Update: Obama responded by saying, "I'd like to congratulate Senator McCain on this endorsement because he really earned it."

by **dajafi** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 17:58:13

Must-listen. It helps if you understand French--or, as in my case, have a wife who does. These are two Quebecois radio hosts who pranked Sarah Palin, calling and having a five-minute conversation with her pretending to be Sarkozy:

http://www.tindeck.com/audio/filestore/ ... hPalin.mp3

by **traderdave** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 20:44:31

jerseyhoya wrote:My sister joined a facebook group for John Adler today. Vomit worthy.

At least she isn't old enough to vote.

No reflection on your sister intended but everything I've heard about Adler makes my skin crawl. I actually attended a SJ Chamber event this week where Chris Myers appeared; Adler had more important things to do and was not there (Andrews and Glading were also there). Myers was a bit too boisterous for my taste but I certainly respect his military service and time with Lockheed. I am not a fan of Andrews at all but Glading didn't light my ass on fire either.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 20:53:17

It's going to depress the hell out of me if a George Norcross stooge represents Burlco and Ocean County in congress. Before Tuesday I am going to put together some sort of an election preview that will contain an entirely too long section on this race. Honestly, I think I'd rather Myers win than McCain.

She wrote back to me that she only joined the group because her friend invited her. The members of the family who are old enough to vote will vote for Myers at least.

by **TenuredVulture** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 21:01:56

Sabato's predictions--nothing surprising here at all.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 21:08:07

I think McCain will win Missouri and maybe Florida or NC or something, and it's depressing that what Sabato picked in the Senate is basically best case scenario, but I think he's on with most of that. I really do think NJ-03 is a tossup though.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 21:22:46

I was going to post a link to Chuck Todd's election preview, but then I got to NJ...

New Jersey: The Garden State is starting to act like its old self again. Even in a good Republican year, the state leans Democratic and that seems to be the case again. In another year, I could make the case that Republicans would have a shot at knocking off Sen. Frank Lautenberg, but not this year. Down the ballot, the Democrats are trying to pick off two House seats. If they win them both (my guess is they only win one), it'll leave the Republicans with just three of the state's 10 House districts, a real low point for a once proud state Republican Party.

We have 13 house districts, not 10. Currently, the GOP holds 6, not 5. I don't know what to say. Chuck Todd is my favorite national pundit. This is devastating.

by **TenuredVulture** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 21:32:55

jerseyhoya wrote:I was going to post a link to Chuck Todd's election preview, but then I got to NJ...

New Jersey: The Garden State is starting to act like its old self again. Even in a good Republican year, the state leans Democratic and that seems to be the case again. In another year, I could make the case that Republicans would have a shot at knocking off Sen. Frank Lautenberg, but not this year. Down the ballot, the Democrats are trying to pick off two House seats. If they win them both (my guess is they only win one), it'll leave the Republicans with just three of the state's 10 House districts, a real low point for a once proud state Republican Party.

We have 13 house districts, not 10. Currently, the GOP holds 6, not 5. I don't know what to say. Chuck Todd is my favorite national pundit. This is devastating.

What, that Chuck Todd doesn't do pretty basic fact checking, or that NJ will be left with 3 Republicans in its delegation? (Is that serious? There's Chris Smith, there's that NW district, there's Atlantic/Ocean County--what about Somerset, Burlington, and Bergen cos?

by **TenuredVulture** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 21:35:37

The NJ Republican party is a disgrace. They can't figure out ways to beat a party led by guys like McGreevey and Corzine, and Lautenberg? It isn't like the Dems have guys like Bradley and Florio. Yeah, 2006 was a D year, but what about 2000, 2002, and 2004?

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 21:37:50

The basic fact checking he didn't do.

It's plausible that we come out of the election holding 3 of the 13 seats in NJ. We currently hold 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 11. 3 (Cherry Hill, Eastern Burlco and most of Ocean) and 7 (parts of Union, Somerset, Hunterton and a slice of Middlesex) are open and are tossups at best. 5 (Northern Bergen, Sussex and Warren) is competitive as well, with Scott Garrett, the only conservative member of the delegation, being challenged by Dennis Shulman, who is a blind rabbi.

LoBiondo (South Jersey), Smith (parts of Burlco, Mercer, Ocean and Monmouth) and Frelinghuysen (Morris) are all safe.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 21:39:21

TenuredVulture wrote:The NJ Republican party is a disgrace. They can't figure out ways to beat a party led by guys like McGreevey and Corzine, and Lautenberg? It isn't like the Dems have guys like Bradley and Florio. Yeah, 2006 was a D year, but what about 2000, 2002, and 2004?

If we do alright in House elections in Jersey, it seems likely that we will hold more GOP House seats in NJ, than we do in Maine, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT and New York put together.

Our state party isn't great, but unfortunately it isn't alone.

by **TenuredVulture** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 21:45:58

jerseyhoya wrote:The basic fact checking he didn't do.

It's plausible that we come out of the election holding 3 of the 13 seats in NJ. We currently hold 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 11. 3 (Cherry Hill, Eastern Burlco and most of Ocean) and 7 (parts of Union, Somerset, Hunterton and a slice of Middlesex) are open and are tossups at best. 5 (Northern Bergen, Sussex and Warren) is competitive as well, with Scott Garrett, the only conservative member of the delegation, being challenged by Dennis Shulman, who is a blind rabbi.

LoBiondo (South Jersey), Smith (parts of Burlco, Mercer, Ocean and Monmouth) and Frelinghuysen (Morris) are all safe.

I think there's been a Frelinghuysen in the delegation since 1787.

by **TenuredVulture** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 22:05:45

dajafi wrote:Must-listen. It helps if you understand French--or, as in my case, have a wife who does. These are two Quebecois radio hosts who pranked Sarah Palin, calling and having a five-minute conversation with her pretending to be Sarkozy:

http://www.tindeck.com/audio/filestore/ ... hPalin.mp3

And Vox thinks that being scared shitless by having Palin one heartbeat away from the President is over-reacting.

And why is Cornyn even mentioning that he has an opponent?

by **Bucky** » Sat Nov 01, 2008 23:10:29

Bucky wrote:The rule for a "safe" poll is:

(margin - 5 - (.75 * undecided)) > 0

For those who didn't figure this out (nobody, I suppose):

I made this up

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