Left Wing Echo Chamber POLITICS THREAD ftw!

by **The Red Tornado** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 15:22:26

Bakestar wrote:btw, is "Early Voting" mostly a legitimizing euphemism for voting by absentee ballot, or have lots of states introduced separate early voting mechanisms? I know Oregon has vote-by-mail (and has had this for awhile), and that Florida and North Carolina have some kind of new structured early voting apparatus, but what else is there?

Some states have early voting now, I believe Ohio is one of them. I already voted myself 3 weeks ago, but that was absentee ballot as I'll be in Florida on election night.

by **The Red Tornado** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 15:24:55

Early Voting
(Updated October 9, 2008)

The following states permit no excuse, in-person early voting at election offices and, in some states, other satellite locations.

Alaska
Nebraska
Arizona
Nevada
Arkansas
New Mexico
California
North Carolina
Colorado
North Dakota
Florida
Ohio
Georgia
Oklahoma
Hawaii
South Dakota
Idaho
Tennessee
Illinois
Texas
Indiana
Utah
Iowa
Vermont
Kansas
West Virginia
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Maine
Wyoming
Montana

Link

by **dajafi** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 16:02:52

Chuck Todd doesn't think it's over:

...it's hard to imagine this race not tightening. Why? Just take a look at the remaining undecided voters.

These are folks who, four years ago, voted mostly Republican. They are undecided now because they are upset with Bush and upset with the economy. But they are not yet on board when it comes to voting for Obama, either because of his party I.D., or his race, but mostly because of the fact that he's a Democrat.

The question all of us in the analyst community are trying to figure out is, will these undecided Republican-leaning voters show up and vote McCain? Or will they stay home?

If they show up and vote, then Obama's margins will shrink dramatically because McCain — as I've argued before — will garner some 70+ percent of the undecided vote.

What does this mean for the map? It puts a lot of states into too close to call territory, including North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada.

The problem McCain has is that a movement of undecided voters toward him might not be enough to stop Obama in Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. And it is in those three states in particular that McCain has to make serious progress in order to turn his goal of reaching 260 electoral votes (not out of the question) into a goal of actually reaching 270.
...
If one were trying to create a predictive model of the most likely scenario, McInturff's memo isn't too far off. Remember, no Democrat has received more than 51 percent vote since LBJ in '64. Obama's challenge is more than race, he's running against more than 40 years of Republican domination of the national electorate.
...
At a minimum, don't be surprised if the race closes. It would be a bigger upset if Obama won by 10 points than if McCain won by one.

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 16:09:32

jerseyhoya wrote:
The Red Tornado wrote:well, yeah

I mean, Reagan blew Carter out of the water late in 1980. There were polls showing him losing as late as a week before the election, and he ended up winning by almost 10% and held Carter to only 49 electoral votes.

I've heard this, but is it really true? I was 14 at the time, and I remember first not being at all surprised that Reagan won. Second, I also remember a Time magazine account of Carter and Reaglan's electoral vote strategy and thinking to myself in two or three weeks before the election that Carter was done. Obviously, in those days we didn't have daily 538.com updates.

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 16:12:12

I'm guessing most voters who are undecided at this point aren't voting.

I also think it's possible that the surge in early voting is due to people wanting to give themselves permission to tune out the campaign. You can say to yourself--I can safely ignore all this nonsense, I've already cast my vote.

by **dajafi** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 16:30:22

TenuredVulture wrote:I'm guessing most voters who are undecided at this point aren't voting.

I also think it's possible that the surge in early voting is due to people wanting to give themselves permission to tune out the campaign. You can say to yourself--I can safely ignore all this nonsense, I've already cast my vote.

Dunno about the first point--I think that for the first time in a long time, there's actually some potential stigma to not voting this year, which could compel even many who don't particularly care how things turn out--but definitely agree on the second. Hell, I'm going to Ohio on Sunday and I sincerely wish I could tune it out...

by **pacino** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 16:40:44

Anyone undecided now...I don't know about them. I don't think I want them voting if they can't decide in 18 months.

What does this mean for the map? It puts a lot of states into too close to call territory, including North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada.

All 'red' states, certainly in Obama's favor.

Also, I noticed that of those 31 states with some form of early voting, exactly 2 are in the Northeast (Main, VT) and they are both small. What does that say about Northeastern states? We still have too many hacks trying to control voting turnout? We have lazy legislature? Unwieldy legislatures with too many representatives who all disagree and have hteir own agendas? I think the latter.

by **BuddyGroom** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 17:10:34

I wish Maryland had early voting. I'm not sure what concerns me more - how long the wait will be next Tuesday or finding a place to park. My polling place is not really within walking distance, unlike when I lived in Arlington.

As for the current discussion, my suspicion is that an awful lot of disgruntled Republicans and right-leaning independents are going to return to the fold. If Obama gets 50.1% of the popular or better, and wins the electoral college by more than 30 votes, I'll be surprised. But I'll take any legitimate margin of victory, even though a substantial win should help with governing.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 17:29:04

TenuredVulture wrote:I'm guessing most voters who are undecided at this point aren't voting.

pacino wrote:Anyone undecided now...I don't know about them. I don't think I want them voting if they can't decide in 18 months.

I suspect most of the folks telling pollsters they're "undecided" are people that just don't want to tell pollsters who they're voting for.

Next time I get a phone poll, I'm telling them I'm writting in "Bud Selig". It's fun to mess with pollsters.

by **Philly the Kid** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 19:03:47

dajafi wrote:Chuck Todd doesn't think it's over:

...it's hard to imagine this race not tightening. Why? Just take a look at the remaining undecided voters.

These are folks who, four years ago, voted mostly Republican. They are undecided now because they are upset with Bush and upset with the economy. But they are not yet on board when it comes to voting for Obama, either because of his party I.D., or his race, but mostly because of the fact that he's a Democrat.

The question all of us in the analyst community are trying to figure out is, will these undecided Republican-leaning voters show up and vote McCain? Or will they stay home?

If they show up and vote, then Obama's margins will shrink dramatically because McCain — as I've argued before — will garner some 70+ percent of the undecided vote.

What does this mean for the map? It puts a lot of states into too close to call territory, including North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada.

The problem McCain has is that a movement of undecided voters toward him might not be enough to stop Obama in Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. And it is in those three states in particular that McCain has to make serious progress in order to turn his goal of reaching 260 electoral votes (not out of the question) into a goal of actually reaching 270.
...
If one were trying to create a predictive model of the most likely scenario, McInturff's memo isn't too far off. Remember, no Democrat has received more than 51 percent vote since LBJ in '64. Obama's challenge is more than race, he's running against more than 40 years of Republican domination of the national electorate.
...
At a minimum, don't be surprised if the race closes. It would be a bigger upset if Obama won by 10 points than if McCain won by one.

THis is chilling

by **Philly the Kid** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 19:10:05

Here in Calif, I do absentee ballot. It comes in the mail, I can quietly and calmly -- relaxingly fill it out. We often have a lot of propositions for state and local. This year is no exception. I just filled it all out this morning and will mail in about 30minutes...

I'm Pelosi's district and sadly she hasn't had any opposition in a long time... she's a career politician with no chance of being removed from her monarchy in the congress. She gave away the Presidio, has protestors arrested and won't talk to them or much of her constiuency. She's backed down on impeachment and anti-war and a variety of things. She surely doesn't represent my views and interests... Cindy Sheehan is running against her but doesn't have a snowballs chance in Haties.

There's a proposition to squash gay marriage, almost all the money for it coming from out of state places like Utah and bible belt areas...

Locally we have Prop K which would decriminalize prostitution both sides of the equation, johns and service providers. It won't win. PGE is behind some heinous stuff as usual ... very few things I've ever voted for have won, occasionally some local stuff...

by **VoxOrion** » Wed Oct 29, 2008 19:40:55

Phan In Phlorida wrote:I suspect most of the folks telling pollsters they're "undecided" are people that just don't want to tell pollsters who they're voting for.

Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby both said that they've found this to be true, and that they are frequently Republicans who have bad attitudes about pollsters.

by **Philly the Kid** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 00:14:20

The Phils just won the freakin WS! I could care less about any other issues!

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 00:16:45

Philly the Kid wrote:The Phils just won the freakin WS! I could care less about any other issues!

by **TheDude24** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 02:11:08

Obama's campaign manager is a Phillies phan. He's gonna be useless tomorrow (today). If Biden has any interest in baseball I would think he's pretty happy too.

by **traderdave** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 17:42:07

Question for guys like Hoya - what would you say (in terms of the current polls) is a safe margin to consider the poll indicative? In other words, if the current polling has McCain up by 10 points in where-ever, is that enough to consider that state "safe"? Is it more like 15 points?

by **pacino** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 17:56:26

I wish Kay Hagan wasn't so damn offended that it was implied that she might be agnostic or atheist. It's like it's worse than being a child molester.

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 18:24:44

I don't think the day after a half-hour prime-time commercial is the right time to ask me for more money.

by **jerseyhoya** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 18:31:17

traderdave wrote:Question for guys like Hoya - what would you say (in terms of the current polls) is a safe margin to consider the poll indicative? In other words, if the current polling has McCain up by 10 points in where-ever, is that enough to consider that state "safe"? Is it more like 15 points?

Obama will win every state he's up 10 points in right now, as will McCain, unless a major national shift occurs.

by **traderdave** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 19:09:13

jerseyhoya wrote:
traderdave wrote:Question for guys like Hoya - what would you say (in terms of the current polls) is a safe margin to consider the poll indicative? In other words, if the current polling has McCain up by 10 points in where-ever, is that enough to consider that state "safe"? Is it more like 15 points?

Obama will win every state he's up 10 points in right now, as will McCain, unless a major national shift occurs.

Thanks for the response, Hoya.

If that is true (and I don't doubt you for one second), Obama needs 11 EVs from AZ, CO, FL, GA, IN, MO, MT, NV, NM, NC, ND, OH, SD, VA and/or WV; he currently holds leads in eight of those 15 states. Obama has a lead of 10-points or more in 21 states (including DC) totaling 259 EVs, while McCain leads in 15 states totaling 111 EVs.

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