Old and busted politics thread

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:21:14

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/5/18429/83923

If these numbers are even close to being right. Ho. Ly. Crap.

by **mpmcgraw** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:24:37

jerseyhoya wrote:http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/5/18429/83923

If these numbers are even close to being right. Ho. Ly. Crap.

and who do these numbers favor exactly?

by **momadance** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:30:15

mpmcgraw wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/5/18429/83923

If these numbers are even close to being right. Ho. Ly. Crap.

and who do these numbers favor exactly?

Clearly Obama, especially if he wins out in the northeast minus NY. Missouri is also a big win for Obama. The reported 64% in Georgia is huge, even though he was expected to win by a nice margin, but not by 34% as CNN is reporting.

by **dajafi** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:30:47

mpmcgraw wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/5/18429/83923

If these numbers are even close to being right. Ho. Ly. Crap.

and who do these numbers favor exactly?

Obama winning Arizona, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey would be... surprising. In a good way.

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:31:59

mpmcgraw wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/2/5/18429/83923

If these numbers are even close to being right. Ho. Ly. Crap.

and who do these numbers favor exactly?

Obama. Dems award delegates in a more proportional fashion, so those huge blowouts in huge states (Georgia, Illinois) are really kep. Plus, NJ? MA? These are states Clinton should be winning, one would think, if she's going to win this nomination.

by **pacino** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:33:26

Clinton was supposed to win much of the Northeast. These are big numbers, if they pan out.

by **momadance** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:34:04

The important number is the delegates though. The state's overall popular vote doesn't really affect the delegate count.

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:36:27

Some of those states are really close, and these are apparently the early exit polls, which can be all over the place compared to the later ones. I think the early exit polls had Kerry beating Bush by 20% in 2004 in PA.

by **momadance** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:37:16

Put my parents in the column of those who believe every e-mail they read.

Mother Dearest wrote:Do you think Obama really has a chance even though he's a Muslim?

by **FlightRisk** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 20:56:48

"We're going to continue to talk about the issues that are important to people."

But you should have heard the way O (I call him) said it.

by **Disco Stu** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:04:35

I am just amazed by the fact that we could have a President Obama.

by **mpmcgraw** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:06:30

Disco Stu wrote:I am just amazed by the fact that we could have a President Obama.

O-B-A-M-A

by **traderdave** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:07:36

FlightRisk wrote:"We're going to continue to talk about the issues that are important to people."

But you should have heard the way O (I call him) said it.

Hearing him speak live was a very moving experience. In my mind, I can hear the Senator preaching that line. Just seeing the polls over the last three weeks is incredible evidence as to how effectively Obama can mobilize people. I believe he would bring the same feeling to the White House.

I'm sitting here in my hotel room in NYC cheering the election results as if it were the Super Bowl - I think I've lost my mind! :lol:

by **traderdave** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:08:05

mpmcgraw wrote:
Disco Stu wrote:I am just amazed by the fact that we could have a President Obama.

O-B-A-M-A

FIRED UP - READY TO GO :!:

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:13:09

Early returns in NJ have Rudy in second to McCain. Probably based on absentee voting, but still really funny.

by **Laexile** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:19:18

VoxOrion wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:Huckabee is playing the kingmaker. Without him, I think Romney would be winning, or at least it would still be wide open.

LAExile wrote:Today Huckabee might cost Romney votes in Missouri, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. While it's possible that Romney would have gotten enough Huckabee votes those aren't states with a lot of delegates. Huckabee may have an impact in California in some congressional districts, but it might not be enough to affect that many delegates.

I know I've said this myself, but the idea that Huckabee is taking votes from Romney appears to be incorrect

I think Huckabee can be looked at two ways - one as the Fundamentalist Christian's Favorite Boy, the other as a left-wing Republican.

When I consider him as the latter, the fact that his supporters are more likely to lean toward McCain makes sense.

It's funny to think Mitt Romney, former Mass governor, is the most conservative candidate in this race.

If you're a true Huckabee supporter, how could you like Romney? Huckabee seems to despise him. He's played dirty with Huckabee.

Romney isn't conservative. When the tide started going for McCain Romney repositioned himself as being on the other side of the issue from McCain pretty much down the line. If Romney were to get the nomination he'd move to the center faster than you can say, "flip-flop."

by **mpmcgraw** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:38:23

those numbersfrom that site look pretty wrong at least according to CNN

by **meatball** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:42:20

mpmcgraw wrote:those numbersfrom that site look pretty wrong at least according to CNN

CNN's exit polls don't seem that far off

by **pacino** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:43:01

Why did Hilary swamp in Oklahoma? I don't get how Obama got less than 30% of the vote

by **mpmcgraw** » Tue Feb 05, 2008 21:44:35

meatball wrote:
mpmcgraw wrote:those numbersfrom that site look pretty wrong at least according to CNN

CNN's exit polls don't seem that far off

Most of the stats that Obama was supposed to get in the 70's are in the low 50's.

This is the first time I've everpaid attention to this so give me a break if I am being oblivious.

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