Gammons floated the idea of the Phils signing Wieters, which would seem to make no sense at all

I don't really want them signing anyone except draft picks and international signings...and I guess some cheap stopgaps. Is it that simple or will the new GM be pressured to sign some guys to get people in the seats?

It might make sense to grab a guy like Heyward now. If we sign a guy like him each year for the next 3-4 years and fill in around those guys with our cheap homegrown talent, that might be a good way to build things. Spread out the big salaries and use the farm.

Wow can't believe Heyward is only 26

But don't you have to give up the 2.1 pick for him? Do you lose bonus pool money as well?

My concern with Heyward is this: So much of his value is wrapped up in defense and base running, both of which can be pretty fuzzy analytically. And even if you assume the metrics are correct, defense and base running rely heavily on speed. If by the time the Phils are contending again Heyward has lost a step, his value may be significantly reduced, especially since he's likely to get a very long-term deal.

Frankly, if we're going to give a mega contract to a relatively young FA, I'd rather give it to David Price, but I'd be surprised if the the Phils were serious bidders for either guy. Let the youngsters develop, stick with the plan and see where your big needs are in another year or two and spend your FA money accordingly.

JFLNYC wrote:. Let the youngsters develop, stick with the plan and see where your big needs are in another year or two and spend your FA money accordingly.

I agree with this generally, but the one problem with it is that high quality free agents who would sign in Philly aren't so plentiful that we can afford to try to get them all in 1-2 years. This year, there's only 1 or 2 guys I would pay a lot to get and neither of them would probably even come here right now. I'd try every year to get one of the best free agents (assuming it's a need position), knowing that I might only get one every other year. Of course, it's not my money.

I'm not sure base running relies that heavily on speed. Sure, you can't be Burrell slow and be a good baserunner but I imagine it has a lot more to do with reading defenses, getting good jumps, etc

JFLNYC wrote:My concern with Heyward is this: So much of his value is wrapped up in defense and base running, both of which can be pretty fuzzy analytically. And even if you assume the metrics are correct, defense and base running rely heavily on speed. If by the time the Phils are contending again Heyward has lost a step, his value may be significantly reduced, especially since he's likely to get a very long-term deal.

Frankly, if we're going to give a mega contract to a relatively young FA, I'd rather give it to David Price, but I'd be surprised if the the Phils were serious bidders for either guy. Let the youngsters develop, stick with the plan and see where your big needs are in another year or two and spend your FA money accordingly.

he just turned 26 in august. i don't think he'll lose a step by the time he's 28 or 29.

I think Heyward will end up being significantly undervalued by whatever contract he ends up getting.

Lay off the FAs. Stink like feet another year. Get another kickass prospect or three. Profit.

Mlbtr and Heyman have Heyward at $20 mil per for the next 9 or 10 years. If we sign him, we forfeit the 2.1 pick and pay him $20 mil x 2 while we rebuild. That puts us in a situation where we assume a ton of risk on the deal with no real opportunity to realize upside until year 3.

For a team on the cusp, yeah take a chance on Heyward, he makes you better right away and maybe puts you over the top. For a team like the Phillies, he does not put you over the top, he's a future asset that is being brought in to help in 2 years. In the meantime, he is taking up around 12% of the payroll (assuming a 160 mil payroll), a spot on the 40 man roster, a starting OF spot and costs you the 36th pick in the draft. Then, while you wait for us to be relevant again he's out there playing, risking injury. Chances are he does get hurt and is fine, but at the cost, why risk it? He's not a generational talent, or an anchor in the lineup, in other words, I don't see him as a guy you build around. I think he's an awesome piece on a talented club, I would have loved to get him instead of Pence back in the day, but he just isn't worth it to this team right now.

i just envision him and jpc at the top of the lineup with their 10% bb by the end of next season. i will admit i believe they contend a lot sooner then others predict so maybe that factors into my desire to sign him.

counter point: he and cody asche are the same age

The second round pick is worth about $6MM, for reference. I dunno, that almost doesn't matter.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/6 ... raft-picks

ReadingPhilly wrote:i just envision him and jpc at the top of the lineup with their 10% bb by the end of next season. i will admit i believe they contend a lot sooner then others predict so maybe that factors into my desire to sign him.

i'm with you on this one. but also somewhat agree with bill in that i'm no fan on long-term contracts, and i don't think the phils will be able to make winning long-term contract offer without being way above the mlbtr aav estimate.

i've already mentioned my unusual compromise elsewhere: offer heyward a huge 3-4 year short-term deal with player-favorable options. this would be designed to allow him to cash in big immediately more so than other teams will offer, and still offer him the chance of long term security either by locking in a couple of years more of huge overpays if his stats collapse in the last fully guaranteed year, or by jumping ship in favor of a huge long-term deal starting at age 29 or 30 if he has one or two awesome years at the end of the guaranteed part. this works out fine for the phillies if reading and i are right and the new generation of home-grown talent already is enough to make the phils a consistent 80-90 win team in 2017-18-19 (maybe with the addition of puk as soon as 2017 or 2018).

again, it all depends on what one thinks the most realistic 2017-19 expectations are for altherr, herrera, franco, nola, eickhoff, morgan, giles, crawford knapp, quinn, thompson, eflin, alfaro, hoskins, pinto, randolf...
reading usually is much more pessimistic than i am about prospects, and still thinks the phils are pretty close to competitiveness. that's pleasantly surprising.

I'd much rather give a long contract to a young productive OFer than a medium length contract to an aging ace starter with a ton of innings on his arm. I may be in the minority on that one though.

phatj wrote:I think Heyward will end up being significantly undervalued by whatever contract he ends up getting.

Yup. I think that 8/$160M gets him. Possibly less. I'd be really surprised if teams give him 10 years or spend $200+M on a guy with a career OPS+ of 114 and who has only once exceeded 20 HR. If someone does offer him 10 years, then it's more like $180M.

And if I'm Heyward, unless someone is crazy enough to give me a Pujols deal, I think I'd prefer less years but higher AAV--if he signs a deal for, say, 5/$140M, he'd make most of the money that he'd get with that hypothetical 10-year deal but would hit FA again at age 31/32 and be positioned to make another $80M before he retires. The (obvious) risk is his health.

The only time it becomes a question for me is once you consider that a team like the Phillies would probably have to overpay to attract him. What if they had to offer him 5/$150M? They've got the financial flexibility and they'd only be paying for the peak years... $30M is a damn big chunk of payroll, but at some point, the dumped salaries of guys like Doc, Utley, Rollins, Lee, Hamels has to come back to the active roster somewhere.

Heyward would be a really nice piece to have at the top of the lineup with Franco once the Phillies can start making waves again in 2017.

phorever wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:i just envision him and jpc at the top of the lineup with their 10% bb by the end of next season. i will admit i believe they contend a lot sooner then others predict so maybe that factors into my desire to sign him.

i'm with you on this one. but also somewhat agree with bill in that i'm no fan on long-term contracts, and i don't think the phils will be able to make winning long-term contract offer without being way above the mlbtr aav estimate.

i've already mentioned my unusual compromise elsewhere: offer heyward a huge 3-4 year short-term deal with player-favorable options. this would be designed to allow him to cash in big immediately more so than other teams will offer, and still offer him the chance of long term security either by locking in a couple of years more of huge overpays if his stats collapse in the last fully guaranteed year, or by jumping ship in favor of a huge long-term deal starting at age 29 or 30 if he has one or two awesome years at the end of the guaranteed part. this works out fine for the phillies if reading and i are right and the new generation of home-grown talent already is enough to make the phils a consistent 80-90 win team in 2017-18-19 (maybe with the addition of puk as soon as 2017 or 2018).

again, it all depends on what one thinks the most realistic 2017-19 expectations are for altherr, herrera, franco, nola, eickhoff, morgan, giles, crawford knapp, quinn, thompson, eflin, alfaro, hoskins, pinto, randolf...
reading usually is much more pessimistic than i am about prospects, and still thinks the phils are pretty close to competitiveness. that's pleasantly surprising.

Even the MLBTR guys don't believe their 10/$200M number. I listened to their pod last week where they discussed that column, and the author admitted that he rationally expected Heyward to get much less than that, but he just had a hunch that someone would overpay. The host didn't think it would happen.

Otherwise, I'm with you. Overpay on a 4/5/6 year deal. A player of Heyward's age and ability hits the FA market once every 15-20 years. Find a way to make it work, short of giving the guy a decade-long contract.

Bill McNeal wrote:Mlbtr and Heyman have Heyward at $20 mil per for the next 9 or 10 years. If we sign him, we forfeit the 2.1 pick and pay him $20 mil x 2 while we rebuild. That puts us in a situation where we assume a ton of risk on the deal with no real opportunity to realize upside until year 3.

For a team on the cusp, yeah take a chance on Heyward, he makes you better right away and maybe puts you over the top. For a team like the Phillies, he does not put you over the top, he's a future asset that is being brought in to help in 2 years. In the meantime, he is taking up around 12% of the payroll (assuming a 160 mil payroll), a spot on the 40 man roster, a starting OF spot and costs you the 36th pick in the draft. Then, while you wait for us to be relevant again he's out there playing, risking injury. Chances are he does get hurt and is fine, but at the cost, why risk it? He's not a generational talent, or an anchor in the lineup, in other words, I don't see him as a guy you build around. I think he's an awesome piece on a talented club, I would have loved to get him instead of Pence back in the day, but he just isn't worth it to this team right now.

If it makes you feel any better the pick will be around #45-50. Last year first pick in 2nd round was #43 and there's 8 more qualifying offers this year. Mentioned this in draft thread but would really love to acquire a competitive balance pick. Comp A pick (after first round) would be forfeited for signing Heyward instead of 2nd round pick. Comp B pick (after 2nd round and more likely to be obtained) would be kept and we'd lose 2nd round pick. All that said I think I'd sign Heyward even if we couldn't get an extra pick.