Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Woody » Fri Oct 31, 2014 13:01:46

JFLNYC wrote:
Shore wrote:
BigEd76 wrote:Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement



In as season where we were out of it early, Ruf started 11 games in September and October, Asche 14, and Dom 17, out of 26 team games. Ryan Howard started 22, hitting .203 / .315 / .342.


In part, this exemplifies the Phils' problem (and pisses me off to no end): They insult the intelligence of their fans and other baseball executives by thinking if a player has a big name and they can somehow give that player enough PT to accumulate counting stats for the back of his baseball card, neither we fans nor the baseball world will realize how much that player actually stinks. It's simultaneously insulting and delusional.


I don't think it's as much about counting stats and is more about their perception of what brings people to the ballpark, combined with their fleeting grasp of sunk costs
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Fri Oct 31, 2014 13:13:52

@ Bucky: That's my point: Did they really believe that getting a few more HR & RBI out of Howard would fool the baseball establishment that he was worth trading for. Are they really basing their strategy on duping others or are they just kidding themselves. Neither is a good alternative.
Jamie

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby smitty » Fri Oct 31, 2014 13:33:32

Roman Quinn is playing in the Fall League. He is a very good base stealer and defender. Recovered fully from the Achilles thing. Not a good base runner although he is very fast. Has no power. Right now, he doesn't look like a good enough hitter. He could be a top quality defensive CFer which has value.

Nefi Ogando is pitching well there. Has two plus pitches, heater and slider. Can probably be a 7th/8th inning reliefer next year.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby ReadingPhilly » Fri Oct 31, 2014 13:36:43

reviews on quinn in the afl have been wide ranging. interesting case.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby smitty » Fri Oct 31, 2014 13:45:12

He's gonna have to learn how to get on base. If he can do that, his speed and defense could make him pretty valuable in CF. I wonder if they have someone who can teach him how to be an elite baserunner. Remember when we had Davey Lopes?

Anyway, Quinn has a long way to go.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby ReadingPhilly » Fri Oct 31, 2014 13:50:38

11 walks in 62 abs so far, 12/14 on steals. he's doing a good job in those areas this fall. would like to see more pop.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby smitty » Fri Oct 31, 2014 13:53:53

He apparently can steal second in three seconds. Yikes.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Bucky » Fri Oct 31, 2014 14:06:30

JFLNYC wrote:@ Bucky: That's my point: Did they really believe that getting a few more HR & RBI out of Howard would fool the baseball establishment that he was worth trading for. Are they really basing their strategy on duping others or are they just kidding themselves. Neither is a good alternative.



yes. I think there's a lot of though around baseball that Howard has never recovered from his Achilles injury, and folks are waiting to see if that recovery every happens.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Fri Oct 31, 2014 14:29:23

I admire your optimism.
Jamie

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Doll Is Mine » Fri Oct 31, 2014 14:38:55

I'm going to make an effort to think positively because it's more fun that way. I feel like I've let the negativity on this board affect my enjoyment of following the Phillies.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Phred » Fri Oct 31, 2014 15:00:07

Quinn = Stud

With him and Crawford at SS and CF we are 1/2 way to strong up the middle from 2016-2026.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Wheels Tupay » Fri Oct 31, 2014 15:04:18

Doll Is Mine wrote:I'm going to make an effort to think positively because it's more fun that way. I feel like I've let the negativity on this board affect my enjoyment of following the Phillies.


More likely that the Phillies will affect your enjoyment of following the Phillies.
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Now imagine that everything you ever imagined... is possible. - Hinkieology
EDP 2020

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shadow » Fri Oct 31, 2014 15:35:20

This is a quote from Theo Epstein today, and I can't possibly find a quote that has been the antithesis of the Phillies over the last 3-4 years than this quote.

Regarding the choice of hiring Joe Maddon and firing Renteria:

"We saw it as a unique opportunity and faced a clear dilemma: be loyal to Rick or be loyal to the organization."


Montgomery and the Phillies have chosen to be loyal to individuals. Not loyal to the organization. I love the way Epstein worded that, because cutting ties with people you like and respect doesn't necessarily have to be painted in the "cold-hearted business move" way. It's just doing what is best for the organization and when it's your job to do everything you can to help your team win, that is the best for the organization as a whole.

The Phillies seem more interested in giving guys 2nd, 3rd, and 4th chances just to say "I told you so!" rather than admitting they are wrong, or doing what is best for the organization.

Well done, Theo Epstein. He's really put together a group with great potential out there.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CalvinBall » Fri Oct 31, 2014 15:36:41

I don't get the Maddon is a genius, best manager narrative stuff.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby dajafi » Fri Oct 31, 2014 15:50:18

Everything I hear about Quinn is in the vein of "he has surprising pop for a little guy." Winkelman--who's definitely an all-purpose optimist--thinks he could max out at 12-15 homers a year. That plus 80 speed and the decent walk rate is a pretty appealing player.

Given how much time he missed, and the fact that his numbers at high-A--coming off the injury layoff and moving to a new position (albeit one he played in HS)--were better than at low-A, I'm pretty optimistic about him. Easily the #4 prospect in the system and a guy who's probably one good year away from showing up on national top 100 lists.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Slowhand » Fri Oct 31, 2014 16:07:54

CalvinBall wrote:I don't get the Maddon is a genius, best manager narrative stuff.


Not sure I get it either. Maybe because he's about as likable as Tony LaRussa.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby smitty » Fri Oct 31, 2014 16:16:58

dajafi wrote:Everything I hear about Quinn is in the vein of "he has surprising pop for a little guy." Winkelman--who's definitely an all-purpose optimist--thinks he could max out at 12-15 homers a year. That plus 80 speed and the decent walk rate is a pretty appealing player.

Given how much time he missed, and the fact that his numbers at high-A--coming off the injury layoff and moving to a new position (albeit one he played in HS)--were better than at low-A, I'm pretty optimistic about him. Easily the #4 prospect in the system and a guy who's probably one good year away from showing up on national top 100 lists.


Him coming back as a speedster after the injury he had is encouraging. He hasn't played a lot yet. This season might be the key. Plus plus speed. Great base stealer. Great CF defense? If he can get on base at a decent rate and hit with a little pop, doubles, triples and a few homers well. That's a really good combo.

I'm not real optimistic yet. But there is room for hope with him.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Doll Is Mine » Fri Oct 31, 2014 16:23:54

Slowhand wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:I don't get the Maddon is a genius, best manager narrative stuff.


Not sure I get it either. Maybe because he's about as likable as Tony LaRussa.


I liked how he let his players dress up in costumes.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby swishnicholson » Fri Oct 31, 2014 17:05:23

CalvinBall wrote:I don't get the Maddon is a genius, best manager narrative stuff.


I don't think you have to buy into that to believe he's a better manager than Ryne Sandberg, or even buy into the thought managers make a huge difference. Clearly some managers are better than others (although who that is can depend on the situation). and likely it's someone with the experience and success of Maddon. As in the post above, you at least have to evaluate whether the move would improve the club when something like this becomes available.

I don't get the Maddon is an asshat stuff. I don't really recall anything like that. Now LaRussa is an asshat, no matter what you think of his managing.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby smitty » Fri Oct 31, 2014 18:06:43

Maddon is not an asshat.

Managers in baseball can definitely make a difference, positive or negative. Groups need a leader. My absolute favorite example of a manager is Joe Torre. He did little to no good most of his career. Then he ends up in the perfect spot for him. Pretty kewl.

Manual was a great manager for the Phils for a while. But once the team went bad he wasn't going to turn things around.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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