Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shore » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:29:34

Amaro identified Cody Asche, Maikel Franco, Darin Ruf, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown as players to build a 72-win team around.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby BigEd76 » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:33:46

Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Wheels Tupay » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:34:47

BigEd76 wrote:Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement


So do I. Ruf and I gonna lead the Phils to the promise land.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shore » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:37:36

BigEd76 wrote:Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement


And that Asche has sucked to date, Revere sucks, and Brown sucks. Hope Franco's good.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby nycphils » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:38:30

BigEd76 wrote:Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement


Image

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:43:53

Everything sucks forever. I would slit my throat but that would just make it Phillies red

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby WheelsFellOff » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:55:50

Grotewold wrote:Everything sucks forever. I would slit my throat but that would just make it Phillies red

Devastating turn of events.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby phorever » Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:37:07

Shore wrote:
Amaro identified Cody Asche, Maikel Franco, Darin Ruf, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown as players to build a 72-win team around.


i like revere and asche better than most here, and even i agree with you on this one. i may or may not be crazy in believing that revere in cf, franco/asche at 3b and ruf/asche at 1b would give us league-average production at those three spots next year, but even i'm not crazy enough to believe that you build at team around guys who are just league-average in their primes. you build around guys are very likely to be mvp/cy young contenders 4-6 wins above average in the near and intermediate future. if amaro or his handlers don't know that, we really are doomed to another lost decade or two.

by the way... message to those wanting to trade hamels: please recognize that in 2017-18 hamels will most likely still be contributing at least 2 wins above average (4 above replacement), which is more likely than not to beat out not only almost all of our current actual prospects, but almost any prospect we could conceivably get in return. hamels is single best player to build around of any current member of the phils organization... and even he isn't likely to be the true foundation by 2017-18. you only trade him if (a) you can't field a competitive team even with him in 2015-16, and there's not enough already in the pipeline to have a new productive core joining him before his contract is up.

i don't think we can know the answers to those questions till about mid-june of next season. to me there is enough obvious potential in revere, asche, franco, galvis, buchanan, morgan, nola, m.a.g. (all of whom but buchanan were hampered by injuries for at least a part of last year) and the younger pen guys and enough chance of healthy contributions from lee and burnett that having high-70s/low-80s win teams in 2015-16 shouldn't be ruled out a priori till we see more of how healthy and productive those guys can be. high 70s low 80s teams sell more tickets and attract more free agents and draftees than do the teams with less than 70 wins you would end up with if you subtract hamels right now.

additionally, there is enough 2017-18 superstar potential in crawford and quinn (and tomas?), and enough 2017-18 solid major league potential in nola, morgan, biddle, altherr, dugan, and franco that i don't think there is an a priori need to trade hamels this winter in order to field a winning team in 2017-18. especially since we darn well better soon have a few new prospects of interest from trades of papelbon and byrd.

wait till after the june draft, see if the health plague hitting our younger players in 2013/14 (revere, galvis, ruf, rupp, asche, franco, morgan, biddle, quinn, dugan, joseph, pettibone, c.hernandez... really, it's amazing) finally abates, see what we get in the draft, give lee a chance to rebuild trade value... then it will be much more clear than now whether or not trading hamels is a good idea.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby lethal » Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:46:40

phorever wrote:by the way... message to those wanting to trade hamels: please recognize that in 2017-18 hamels will most likely still be contributing at least 2 wins above average (4 above replacement), which is more likely than not to beat out not only almost all of our current actual prospects, but almost any prospect we could conceivably get in return. hamels is single best player to build around of any current member of the phils organization... and even he isn't likely to be the true foundation by 2017-18. you only trade him if (a) you can't field a competitive team even with him in 2015-16, and there's not enough already in the pipeline to have a new productive core joining him before his contract is up.

i don't think we can know the answers to those questions till about mid-june of next season.


Gillick already gave the answer to those questions.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby my cousin mose » Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:52:12

Grotewold wrote:Everything sucks forever. I would slit my throat but that would just make it Phillies red

Neat Mose fact: when mixed with oxygen my blood turns powder blue when out of town
Last edited by my cousin mose on Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:00:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby WheelsFellOff » Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:54:58

Are you suggesting he's a cephalopod?
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Fri Oct 31, 2014 11:59:06

Law's chat yesterday said the realistic asking price for Hamels should be 2 very good prospects and a throw in. What a troll

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby 76erfan » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:22:18

if they are top tier prospects...i dont know that i disagree.

baez and soler for example?

I am not as high on the red sox prospects.

would want 3-4 of those
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shore » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:31:10

BigEd76 wrote:Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement



In as season where we were out of it early, Ruf started 11 games in September and October, Asche 14, and Dom 17, out of 26 team games. Ryan Howard started 22, hitting .203 / .315 / .342.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shore » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:33:23

Grotewold wrote:Everything sucks forever. I would slit my throat but that would just make it Phillies red


Everything's going to be fine. The new guy in charge who's the same as the old guy in charge told reporters something that I can interpret to mean that he wants to do better and the really rich guy wants more power and he's the very best and once we sign the cuban guy and every one of our prospects pans out we're probably a lock to maybe be in the race as long as bryce harper keeps sucking and the braves forget how to pitch.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby swishnicholson » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:36:20

Shore wrote:
BigEd76 wrote:Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement



In as season where we were out of it early, Ruf started 11 games in September and October, Asche 14, and Dom 17, out of 26 team games. Ryan Howard started 22, hitting .203 / .315 / .342.


Hey, at least Revere started 24, right?
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shore » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:38:07

swishnicholson wrote:
Shore wrote:
BigEd76 wrote:Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement



In as season where we were out of it early, Ruf started 11 games in September and October, Asche 14, and Dom 17, out of 26 team games. Ryan Howard started 22, hitting .203 / .315 / .342.


Hey, at least Revere started 24, right?


At least! It's a slower, more methodical approach to rebuilding and evaluating young talent. We should be pretty sure about them by the time they're 30.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby lethal » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:48:21

CFP wrote:Law's chat yesterday said the realistic asking price for Hamels should be 2 very good prospects and a throw in. What a troll


Have other guys netted more recently? Hamels is still a high salaried guy who is worth his deal, but that limits his market.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:51:31

Shore wrote:
BigEd76 wrote:Just a quick reminder that Ruf turns 29 in July. Youth movement



In as season where we were out of it early, Ruf started 11 games in September and October, Asche 14, and Dom 17, out of 26 team games. Ryan Howard started 22, hitting .203 / .315 / .342.


In part, this exemplifies the Phils' problem (and pisses me off to no end): They insult the intelligence of their fans and other baseball executives by thinking if a player has a big name and they can somehow give that player enough PT to accumulate counting stats for the back of his baseball card, neither we fans nor the baseball world will realize how much that player actually stinks. It's simultaneously insulting and delusional.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Bucky » Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:57:45

I thought the deal with RyHo is that they were hoping for some late-season pop to gain a little trade value, no?? Isn't that our preferred disposition for the big guy??

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