Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby smitty » Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:48:52

sydnor wrote:well it's exactly the same given Carlos Ruiz had a .692 OPS this year and is pretty mediocre and there are several starters better than him (MORE THAN 20!!!). His previous years don't really count since he was cheating. Also, he'll be 35. As smitty would say, zomg, lol.


Ruiz is better than many of the 20 catchers you keep going on about when you account for every aspect of catching. Some of them who have hit better than him this season are downright lousy catchers. Ruiz is not lousy behind the plate. There are not a lot of good catchers around. I'd love to see Rupp hang around Ruiz for a while. Ruiz has been above league average with the bat from age 30-33, twice being way above average. He has NOT had a normal career path. Not even close. He hasn't even caught 1000 big league games yet and won't even if he catches EVERY game next year.

Kendrick is worse than dozens of pitchers. He is almost certainly fungible. We have a few pitchers on the staff already who have a good chance of being as good or better than Kendrick right now.

Other than that, the situations are similar. Exactly the same, in fact, except completely different.

GGSA.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby sydnor » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:01:23

The WAR I'm citing attempts to capture defense. Obviously it is not perfect, but it's at least as good as your "Ruiz is good at defense, I'm sure of it" line of logic. If it wasn't capturing it, Ruiz might be in more trouble than he already is, because his bat is atrocious.

Ruiz was also caught cheating so those years have an asterisk near them. I'd rather use the most recent year, where we're relatively sure he wasn't cheating. Also, since he did have a brief run of being good this year (august) before again being bad (september), we can't simply say that if he wasn't injured, he would have been great. No, even after he recovered from the injury, he then showed that he can be pretty terrible.

Finally, it's fitting that he's injured this year because, well, 34 and 35 year old catchers get injured. Don't re-sign him, he no good.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby smitty » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:29:55

Yes. A season in which a guy has a few hundred at bats is MUCH better than using a larger sample size. For example, over the last three years, Ruiz ranks fifth in all of baseball amongst MLB catchers. One of the guys ahead of him is Mike Napoli, who is mostly a DH regardless of where he plays.

I like to look at the new catcher defense work some of the smart guys are doing. Ruiz does very well in these studies, which makes sense a he also does well when watching the games.

You can disregard everything before this year because of Adderall if you want but that makes little sense to me. Ruiz is old but not over used.

I like to consider as much data as possible when doing player evaluations. I think it makes more sense than using really small samples and speculation on the effects of Adderall without knowing much about how much the guy even used or for how long. I also believe that the number of games a guy has caught in his career is important. I also think a unique guy like Ruiz May not age the same as other guys as his whole career has been pretty odds defying.

I could be wrong. I've been wrong before. And if I am WGAFF. But I think Ruiz can be pretty valuable in a time share with KRATZ! And maybe even RUPP! Later. Don't bat him cleanup. Give him some days off. I believe he has a pretty good chance of returning to the guy who walks a lot as he has throughout his career. He can hit for a decent average with some power. That's a decent package. Better than maybe all of the alternatives. There aren't a lot of good catchers out there as has been the case throughout MLB history I'd guess.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Wolfgang622 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 14:43:07

So, here's some random stuff that has to do with the Phillies and presumably us:

If you put Manny Ramirez into Google and then a space, it's first two suggestions are "stats" and "net worth."

And then? Not the Indians. Not the Red Sox. Not the Dodgers or White Sox or Rays, or even the Athletics.

No, the Phillies comes up third.

Not only do the Phils come up third, but the next team that comes up doesn't come up until 7th... and it's the Rangers.

WE'RE STILL DOING IT!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby slugsrbad » Sun Sep 29, 2013 15:18:43

mozartpc27 wrote:So, here's some random stuff that has to do with the Phillies and presumably us:

If you put Manny Ramirez into Google and then a space, it's first two suggestions are "stats" and "net worth."

And then? Not the Indians. Not the Red Sox. Not the Dodgers or White Sox or Rays, or even the Athletics.

No, the Phillies comes up third.

Not only do the Phils come up third, but the next team that comes up doesn't come up until 7th... and it's the Rangers.

WE'RE STILL DOING IT!!!!!!!!!


The first thing I get is Manny Ramirez Broncos
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby WheelsFellOff » Sun Sep 29, 2013 15:20:59

It's almost as if autocomplete is different depending on your isp!
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby td11 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 15:31:38

could use some catches and yards from cruz for my own benefit but would thoroughly enjoy a giants loss
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby BigEd76 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 23:05:14

cartersDad26 wrote:
Doll Is Mine wrote:Image


Wow, we have 13 rookies?


Ruf, Asche, Hernandez, Rupp, Pettibone, Cloyd, Martin, Garcia, Ramirez, Diekman, Rosenberg and Robles

(and Aumont, Susdorf and Lerud made appearances this year too)

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby BigEd76 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 13:33:57

Anthopoulos says he might be willing to deal some of his relievers to get pieces his team needs......2B (or 3B if they move Lawrie over) and starting pitchers. hmm

SMUG says if they can't get a righty RF, they'll go after another CF instead, move Ben to LF and Dom to RF

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Trent Steele » Mon Sep 30, 2013 14:48:17

So, Ruf sucks but Revere could be a fit in LF.

At this point, I'm just watching the clock until he gets fired.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby CalvinBall » Mon Sep 30, 2013 14:57:34

Trent Steele wrote:So, Ruf sucks but Revere could be a fit in LF.

At this point, I'm just watching the clock until he gets fired.

also said they might hire an analytic guy. maybe. also sounded like there are currently 0 employed in the org.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby td11 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:01:49

they should take baby steps and just get a 1 yr subscription to BP or FG first
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Grotewold » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:03:58

Trent Steele wrote:So, Ruf sucks but Revere could be a fit in LF.


I think the real takeaway is they're looking to upgrade CF, which is the opposite of a vote of confidence for Revere. Especially if the CF is a lefty which Rube mentioned might be the reality, and especially since they -- and Brown -- clearly prefer Brown in LF

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby sydnor » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:09:25

I'm happy to read the article if you post it, but how's that the takeaway grote? Aren't they saying, we absolutely want to upgrade RF. If we can't do it, we upgrade CF, but Revere still retains his job.

Under what scenario does Revere not retain his job?
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby joe table » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:09:27

The only FA RF I'd be interested in is Cruz, and only then if they don't arb him (which they probably will/should). I think there is a chance for good value (3-30 maybe?) coming off roids stuff and he can still kill baseballs

Beltran won't want to come here I don't think. Hart I guess is a similar player but he's had all the knee and foot injuries recently...maybe would be interested in him on a 2 year cheaper deal

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Grotewold » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:15:34

sydnor wrote:I'm happy to read the article if you post it, but how's that the takeaway grote? Aren't they saying, we absolutely want to upgrade RF. If we can't do it, we upgrade CF, but Revere still retains his job.

Under what scenario does Revere not retain his job?


Jeff, honest question -- do even read my posts before responding?

They want Brown in LF. (He's awful in RF.) So yeah, between that and Amaro looking to upgrade Revere's optimum position and the continued existence of Darin Ruf and perhaps another corner guy, I see that conversation as kind of a bummer for Ben Revere. I'm sorry he didn't come right out and say "Ben Revere sucks" for everyone's enjoyment, but I'm not sure that's best.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby sydnor » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:19:07

Ok, again, I don't know the article that everyone's referring to so I'm happy to read up and not waste your time.

But I took it as "Ruf stinks, we have to upgrade him. Maybe we'll get an RF, but if we don't, we'll get a CF and move Revere to LF and Brown to RF. But bottom line is that Revere and Brown are in this outfield, Ruf isn't".

It seems like Trent took it that way too. If I'm wrong, please let me know.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Grotewold » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:20:54

sydnor wrote:Ok, again, I don't know the article that everyone's referring to so I'm happy to read up and not waste your time.

But I took it as "Ruf stinks, we have to upgrade him. Maybe we'll get an RF, but if we don't, we'll get a CF and move Revere to LF and Brown to RF. But bottom line is that Revere and Brown are in this outfield, Ruf isn't".

It seems like Trent took it that way too. If I'm wrong, please let me know.


Even if that's the case, which I doubt as it relates to Brown, moving from CF to LF (competing with Ruf and perhaps another corner guy) is a loss for Revere. Flat out.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby sydnor » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:23:18

Ah ok, you're right. I took it as not competing but being handed the job in LF. If he's competing, yes that would be worse.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby BigEd76 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:31:16

Here's the quote from Zo's article (and Steaks has a similar one):

Amaro hinted the Phillies could get creative, find a center fielder and possibly move Revere into left and Brown into right. That could be an option because the pickings are slim for free-agent, right-handed-hitting corner outfielders. The top of the list includes Nelson Cruz, who just served a 50-game suspension for using a performance enhancing substance; Corey Hart, who missed the entire season following surgeries on both knees; and Carlos Beltran, the switch-hitter who turns 37 in April.

The Phillies certainly will try to acquire Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, but so will every other team in baseball if he becomes available.

“One just got tied up, unfortunately, in Hunter,” Amaro said one of possibility. “There aren’t a lot of them. There are some guys out there, but there may be someone we can acquire. We may have to go even more left-handed. If the quality of the player to get needs to be left-handed, and he’s a quality player who can play the outfield and play defense and do the things we need him to do, then we have to go with a left-handed hitter.


yikes

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