Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby sydnor » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:33:50

Ed, that's not a yikes, that's a good thing. RH is probably better than LH, but can't be RH over everything. I had thought that Rube had been hinting strongly that he was only considering righties. I'm thrilled that he'll consider a lefty.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Mon Sep 30, 2013 15:57:00

sydnor wrote:Ed, that's not a yikes, that's a good thing. RH is probably better than LH, but can't be RH over everything. I had thought that Rube had been hinting strongly that he was only considering righties. I'm thrilled that he'll consider a lefty.

I agree. If you have to massively overpay or make weird roster decisions just to get a RH bat but you can get much better value from a LH bat, then just go in that direction. Between Ruf (I refuse to believe his odd splits will continue when his splits were the exact opposite in the minors), catcher, and possibly Franco, there will be at least some RH production.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Shore » Mon Sep 30, 2013 16:04:23

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:If you have to massively overpay or make weird roster decisions just to get a RH bat but you can get much better value from a LH bat, then just go in that direction.


If they're looking to compete, I don't think a "value" play works. We don't need 50 runs for the cost of 35. We need 120 runs, regardless of cost. Twice over.

Forget the numbers for a second - if contention in 2014 is a goal, we need the best players we can acquire, and their salary can't matter. We are so far behind, we can't have a series of small victories. We need a huge impact. Either we're big dogs, or we're not.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Sep 30, 2013 16:09:10

But isn't that in part how we got here? At least with regard to the pitching staff.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Sep 30, 2013 16:24:37

TenuredVulture wrote:But isn't that in part how we got here? At least with regard to the pitching staff.


That's right. So the question now is which cliche do you follow: "In for a penny, in for a pound?" or "Don't throw good money after bad."

IMO, from a baseball standpoint, it's ridiculous not to have traded Lee and Utley if you're not going all-in for 2014. That said, I doubt Rube will do it. I've come around to the opinion that the decision was made that all the biggest names (Rollins, Howard, Utley, Lee, Hamels) had to be retained, not because it made baseball sense, but to act as window dressing for the new TV deal. So I doubt keeping Lee and extending Utley are preludes to trying to make a run in 2014. Rather, they we retained primarily in an attempt to add value to the TV deal via star power.

If Rube makes multiple big moves this off season (along the lines of what Shore is suggesting), I'll know I'm wrong. If he tinkers around the edges again, I'm probably right.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby nycphils » Mon Sep 30, 2013 16:29:06

My view of a lineup - admittedly unscientific, so fire away - is that it is more effective to have good hitters throughout than a couple of great hitters and then a couple of black holes. Why is that my impression? The two ways to score runs are either (a) XBHs or (b) stringing together multiple hits (or (c), both) - it is hard to string together hits when there are black holes in a lineup because the odds of even two great hitters getting their hits in the same inning is fairly low when you consider that even the best make outs 60% of the time. Add the fact that it is likely easier to hit with runners on base (harder to shift radically, 1st baseman has to cover 1B, greater reluctance to pitch around with runners on, etc) logic suggests that it is better to have a good balanced lineup than to have black holes.

What does that mean? To me that is the argument for playing Ruf and using $$ to try to upgrade at the black hole spots - CF, SS (if possible), 1B (assuming continued Howard decline). Galvis, Mayberry (at least against RHP), Revere are black holes. Obviously, the best option is having a balanced lineup with some stars, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Anyway, bring on the insults.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Mon Sep 30, 2013 16:44:29

Shore wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:If you have to massively overpay or make weird roster decisions just to get a RH bat but you can get much better value from a LH bat, then just go in that direction.


If they're looking to compete, I don't think a "value" play works. We don't need 50 runs for the cost of 35. We need 120 runs, regardless of cost. Twice over.

Forget the numbers for a second - if contention in 2014 is a goal, we need the best players we can acquire, and their salary can't matter. We are so far behind, we can't have a series of small victories. We need a huge impact. Either we're big dogs, or we're not.

Where does that huge impact come from?

I don't disagree with you, but I don't see that kind of impact bat(s) out there. Nelson Cruz might be an option and readily available due to the PED uncertainty, but he has a career 114 OPS+ entering his age 34 season, so it's not like they'd get superstar production. If they go in that direction, they'd still need someone else. Who else is out there besides Beltran (who I'd still love to get)?

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Mon Sep 30, 2013 17:57:52

Trent Steele wrote:So, Ruf sucks but Revere could be a fit in LF.

It's all that power Revere brings to the table.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby smitty » Mon Sep 30, 2013 17:59:27

I think being concerned regarding outfield defense is a good thing.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Grotewold » Tue Oct 01, 2013 08:46:44

JFLNYC wrote:IMO, from a baseball standpoint, it's ridiculous not to have traded Lee and Utley if you're not going all-in for 2014. That said, I doubt Rube will do it. I've come around to the opinion that the decision was made that all the biggest names (Rollins, Howard, Utley, Lee, Hamels) had to be retained, not because it made baseball sense, but to act as window dressing for the new TV deal. So I doubt keeping Lee and extending Utley are preludes to trying to make a run in 2014.


Rollins is the only one who fits that narrative at all, imo.

As to whether they'll make a big move or two, I'd be surprised if they don't. They have the resources, and pocketing them would have negative ramifications on not just the TV deal but attendance and the general perception of the team, not to mention the heat Amaro is under

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby CalvinBall » Tue Oct 01, 2013 09:10:37

trade for david price.

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby nycphils » Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:06:26

I assume you are being sarcastic; if not, while I'd love to have Price, given that the Rays dealt Shields for Wil Myers, I can't imagine their demands for Price. In any event, we can't afford to lose what it would take (Brown, Franco, etc.)

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Grotewold » Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:25:22

I wondered last week whether we could turn Lee and perhaps Asche into Price and something else. With us either eating half of Lee's money for the Rays or dealing with a third team. But others raised valid concerns about Price's velocity, the potential redundancy with Hamels, etc

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby nycphils » Tue Oct 01, 2013 20:41:06

I have a suggestion...

"First base tops the Brewers' list of priorities this offseason, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com writes. Brewers first basemen hit just .206/.259/.370 in 2013, and their primary first baseman was Yuniesky Betancourt, who hit .212/.240/.355. GM Doug Melvin suggests the Brewers could bring back Corey Hart after Hart missed the entire 2013 season, but the Brewers want to learn more about the condition of his knees."

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Oct 01, 2013 20:52:11

Go on. . .
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby philliesphhan » Tue Oct 01, 2013 22:17:35

I think he's saying the Brewers could want our also broken 1B

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Oct 01, 2013 23:14:33

I know. I just wanted to see it in writing.
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby phatj » Wed Oct 02, 2013 06:03:07

I thought he was saying Yuni might be available
they were a chick hanging out with her friends at a bar, the Phillies would be the 320 lb chick with a nose wart and a dick - Trent Steele

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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby cshort » Wed Oct 02, 2013 09:10:26

Would you pay $10-$15 million of our first baseman's salary to get rid of him?
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Re: Random Phillies Thoughts and Tired Schtick

Postby Grotewold » Wed Oct 02, 2013 09:11:43

cshort wrote:Would you pay $10-$15 million of our first baseman's salary to get rid of him?


Work him and A-Ram into my Braun deal

#TATE

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