Dom Brown: Phillies Random Thoughts

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 08:47:21

dajafi wrote:Yeah, but the SLG is all triples-driven

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 08:57:49

Is that a definite that Hernandez has to be on the 25 man next year or we risk losing him? Gelb reported that but didn't seem 100%

Amaro seems to love him. Will be interesting to see how things shake out with not just Utley and Yim but Galvis and Frandsen

by **FTN** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 09:21:26

there is a special exemption where a player can earn a 4th option year, but its confusing and i wouldnt count on it, because its rare

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 09:39:14

FTN wrote:there is a special exemption where a player can earn a 4th option year, but its confusing and i wouldnt count on it, because its rare

Thanks. I wonder if the Phils are banking on that. Because otherwise they kind of painted themselves into a corner middle infield wise

by **dajafi** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:29:02

The guy's playing well at triple A and didn't seem hopelessly overmatched during his cup of coffee. You'd probably want to have him on the 25 or trade him anyway.

by **joe table** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:35:02

little thought experiment this morning while looking at NL standings and the shitty state of the league in general...I know we have been understandably bemoaning our slide from the top, but how many franchises in the NL do you think are in better shape than us moving forward?

Cards I think are a no brainer. great young talent, will spend to retain top guys, good revrnur-generating fanbase. other than that...

Nats? I guess probably given talent and resources. Still strike me as fraudlent until they prove me wrong with some additional moves to supplement core

Braves have more talent but they don't spend to keep it. proven shitty fanbase with tepid tv revenue. consistent frauds in playoffs. I'll die before envying that piece of shit franchise

Reds...again more talent, again no fans or revenue potential. tied their ship to votto and won't be able to add significantly to current team. don't see them sustaining success w/o finding a lot of internal talent

rest of east and central essentially don't matter right now. may get a good year here or there, but whatever. cubs have resource potential but more work to do than us

Giants...solid franchise/fanbase, but again I don't really envy either their roster or their ability to acquire significant talent. think theyre comparable to us but not better positioned moving forward

Doyers...seem incompetent, have incredible amounts of debt to service after fizzling with their big splash. invested heavily in two flaky, injured losers in Kemp and greinke. will need to pay kershaw a ton too, so will be pretty close to tapped out moving forward. wouldnt trade places w them, though I think they'll be a factor moving forward

rest of west, who cares

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:37:03

This is a pretty good breakdown of the 4th option year exception.

Most players get only three minor league options, but a player who has accrued less than five "full seasons" is eligible for a 4th minor league option.

For the purpose of determining eligibility for a 4th minor league option, a player accrues a "full season" when he spends at least 90 total days on the Active List of an MLB and/or minor league club or clubs in a given season, or at least 60 days but less than 90 days (total) on the Active List of an MLB and/or minor league club or clubs, followed by a Disabled List assignment where the combined time spent on the Active List and Disabled List equals at least 90 days.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3506

Cesar played in the Venezuelan Summer League in 2007 and 2008--I can't imagine that those meet the 90-day criteria. He was in the Gulf Coast League in 2009... not sure about that one but I doubt it. That leaves 2010-2013, which would be four full seasons (he only played 65 games in low-A in 2010, but I'm guessing there was a DL stint in there that would bump it up to 90+ days). So yeah, they might have a fourth option year after all.

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 10:40:59

That's good to hear. Not a huge deal either way, but he strikes me as an everyday 2B, and we may well still have one of those next year. And you probably can't roll with him and Galvis on the bench (assuming Asche at 3B)

And you can't really move Utley to another position even if you wanted to -- we need to add a legit power bat in LF or RF.

Then again, Cesar probably doesn't benefit from more time in AAA. So we're probably looking at a trade, one way or another

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:09:16

joe table wrote:little thought experiment this morning while looking at NL standings and the shitty state of the league in general...I know we have been understandably bemoaning our slide from the top, but how many franchises in the NL do you think are in better shape than us moving forward?

I expected some regression from the Nats, but not to this extent. It'll be interesting to see the revenue hit they take if they fall out of the race, and how that affects future spending

by **FTN** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:14:58

no one knew the dodgers would go on a crazy spending spree months or years before it happened. it came out of nowhere. the landscape can change quickly.

the phillies shouldnt worry about the braves, nats, mets, dodgers, cardinals or anyone else.

by **joe table** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:22:23

FTN wrote:no one knew the dodgers would go on a crazy spending spree months or years before it happened. it came out of nowhere. the landscape can change quickly.

this is true but it can only happen in certain markets. no multibillion dollar acquisitions and big spending sprees happening in the majority of these NL cities. I think the cubs are the only real potential sleeper franchise in that respect

by **Shore** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:37:32

joe table wrote:little thought experiment this morning while looking at NL standings and the shitty state of the league in general...I know we have been understandably bemoaning our slide from the top, but how many franchises in the NL do you think are in better shape than us moving forward?

What shape are WE in going forward? What assets do we have that make us above-average from 2014 on?

Money, and presumably the authority to spend it.
Clifford.
Cole.
Dom.
Kendrick.
Papelbon.

What else?

The money's big, assuming we keep spending. Lee and Papelbon might not even be here. I can't believe Kendrick's on my list. Dom had a great career last month.

Convince me that any other team's list of "teams that are in better shape than us" should have us on it.

by **Shore** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:39:08

joe table wrote:
FTN wrote:no one knew the dodgers would go on a crazy spending spree months or years before it happened. it came out of nowhere. the landscape can change quickly.

this is true but it can only happen in certain markets. no multibillion dollar acquisitions and big spending sprees happening in the majority of these NL cities. I think the cubs are the only real potential sleeper franchise in that respect

You didn't list the Pirates, who have way more prime-and-younger talent than we do, IMO. No money, though.

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:45:24

Shore wrote:The money's big, assuming we keep spending. Lee and Papelbon might not even be here.

If they're not here, elite prospects will be. And while Galvis, Hernandez, Asche, Franco, Joseph, Biddle et al may not light the world on fire, that looks like a solid base to add free agents and trade acquisitions to thanks to the money

Also the makings of a solid/good bullpen for cheap

by **Soren** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:46:55

Grotewold wrote:
Shore wrote:The money's big, assuming we keep spending. Lee and Papelbon might not even be here.

Also the makings of a solid/good bullpen for cheap

we said pretty much the exact thing about De Fratus, Stutes, Aumont, Bastardo, Diekman etc...

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:47:46

Soren wrote:we said pretty much the exact thing about De Fratus, Stutes, Aumont, Bastardo, Diekman etc...

None looks likely to be an elite back-end guy, but I still think it's a pretty good young base of talent. As much as most teams'

by **Shore** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:54:44

Grotewold wrote:
Shore wrote:The money's big, assuming we keep spending. Lee and Papelbon might not even be here.

If they're not here, elite prospects will be. And while Galvis, Hernandez, Asche, Franco, Joseph, Biddle et al may not light the world on fire, that looks like a solid base to add free agents and trade acquisitions to thanks to the money

Also the makings of a solid/good bullpen for cheap

I tend to discount the "elite" prospects because of the presumed acquirer.

Galvis, et al, are major league players, likely. Regulars, some of them. Is there a guy there that looks like an above-average ML starter, let alone a star?

Where will the stars come from?

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:55:58

Shore wrote: Where will the stars come from?

"That's what the money's for!!!"

by **Shore** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 11:57:33

Grotewold wrote:
Shore wrote: Where will the stars come from?

"That's what the money's for!!!"

Didn't help us the last 2 years.

Remember, it's not Amaro's fault that no one is available. He has no control over that. If we have holes, and there are no good fits, what can he do?

Who's the money going to?

by **Grotewold** » Wed Jun 19, 2013 12:00:18

Shore wrote:Didn't help us the last 2 years.

Just joshin. Brown has a real shot. Is it crazy to think another of the prospects I cited above could? I don't remember people being nearly as bullish on Utley and Howard as what they turned out to be.

Will still have one or two aces, plus whatever comes back for Lee/Pap/Doc/whoever.

That seems like a pretty strong foundation. Free agency isn't what it used to be, but you can make a splash now and then if you have the flexibility, which we would. And/or acquiring expensive (but productive) guys from low- and mid-market teams.

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